Monmouth NJ-2: Biden +5

[kireev]

81% White, non-Hispanic
  9% Black
  7% Hispanic
  2% Asian
  1% Other

The sample is too white. The district is 12.1% black and 16.5% Hispanic. Both of them should probably be around 11% of the voting electorate or so.

[kireev]

81% White, non-Hispanic
  9% Black
  7% Hispanic
  2% Asian
  1% Other

The sample is too white. The district is 12.1% black and 16.5% Hispanic. Both of them should probably be around 11% of the voting electorate or so.

So if anything this poll is underestimating Dems?

Maybe by just a little bit.  Party registration looks about right: 32% DEM, 30% REP. In reality it's 32.6% DEM, 29.2% REP. So a tiny bit REP-friendly.

[kireev]

81% White, non-Hispanic
  9% Black
  7% Hispanic
  2% Asian
  1% Other

The sample is too white. The district is 12.1% black and 16.5% Hispanic. Both of them should probably be around 11% of the voting electorate or so.

Those numbers are only slightly off from the 2018 CVAP numbers for NJ-02, though (10.3% Hispanic and 12.5% Black). It's also possible their model is assuming lower turnout rates for non-white voters relative to whites.

Well, that was a registered voter sample.