IBD/TIPP: Biden +6 (user search)
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  IBD/TIPP: Biden +6 (search mode)
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Author Topic: IBD/TIPP: Biden +6  (Read 578 times)
kireev
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« on: September 21, 2020, 10:59:14 AM »
Based on this Biden's lead should be higher than that.

Trump voters in 2016 now back him, 86%-11%. Clinton voters back Biden, 92%-3%.

Meanwhile, Americans who voted for another candidate in 2016 back Biden, 65%-4%. Plus, those who sat out the 2016 election or are newly eligible to vote support Biden, 57%-28%.

Assume it's Clinton 44%, Trump 42%, another candidate 5%, did dot vote 9% and calculate the numbers. I came up with Biden 53%, Trump 40%. I assume their 2016 sample was kind of heavily skewed towards Trump.
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kireev
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« Reply #1 on: September 21, 2020, 11:05:00 AM »
Quote from: soundchaser on September 21, 2020, 11:00:42 AM
Quote from: kireev on September 21, 2020, 10:59:14 AM
Assume it's Clinton 44%, Trump 42%, another candidate 5%, did dot vote 9% and calculate the numbers. I came up with Biden 53%, Trump 40%. I assume their 2016 sample was kind of heavily skewed towards Trump.

It was -- their final poll had him winning the popular vote by about 2%.

To get to Biden's 5-6% lead they had to have Trump at about +6 or +7 in their 2016 sample.
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