This is something that I've been meaning to do for a while. The polls this year seem to have an unusually large number of undecideds compared to 4 years ago. A big question mark-- arguably the biggest, is which direction these undecideds will go.
Taking the percentage that each candidate actually gets based on their average polling score at pollster.com as a base below which, barring a dramatic turn of events, they are unlikely to fall, even as the campaign gears up, but while at the same time admitting the possibility that the undecided vote could break decisively one way or another, I calculate the best and worst case "plausible" scenarios for Obama and McCain. What does the race look like if 85% of the undecideds break for Obama? For McCain?
For example, Obama 46%, McCain 41% on Pollster.com. The undecided size is 13, 13x.85=11.05. McCain wins the state 52.05-47.95 if 85% of undecideds break toward him.
Map 1. Obama taps into the deep dissatisfaction at the direction the country is going and connects with his message of unity, hope and procedural change in politics, while contrasting and defining McCain with traditional Washington politics and the Bush administration. Race ceases to become a factor as other issues take precedence.. 85% of undecideds break toward Obama.
Map 2. 1988 all over again. McCain rides his war hero status and experience to contrast and define Obama as an arrogant out of touch elitist and inexperienced, as well as too liberal, and working class whites and moderates flock to McCain. 85% of undecideds break toward McCain.
