That rasmussen poll showing Bush up +7 was done more than 2 months ago on 3/23, right around the time when all the Iraq crap was just starting, so the new +1 poll probably reflects that. As the Iraq crap dies down, Bush will probably go back up to where he was, that is until (or unless) Kerry starts really hammering his campaign.
Vorlon: Ok, I just asked b/c you had Oregon slight Kerry on your map but said its slight Bush. That state is probably as close as any state right now.
Heres another good site, it was linked from the other site
http://home.comcast.net/~gerrydal/