Election 2018 Open Thread v2 - Mia, Mimi, Gil, and T.J.

[Beet]

Another one bites the dust
Another one bites the dust
And another one gone, and another one gone
Another one bites the dust
Hey, I'm gonna get you, too
Another one bites the dust

That’s a really wild map

Let's hope there will be a similar map of Harris and Dallas counties in two years.

Also Houston. Fletcher won by a decent margin and Crenshaw massively underperformed in the 2nd next door.

Harris county is Houston. Democrats really need to make an effort to take the Texas House in 2020 (another reason to contest the state). Without gerrymandering they would have a lot more seats. If you ask me O'Rourke should moderate his stance on an AR-15 ban, and other hot-button issues, and challenge Cornyn.

[Beet]

Todd Litton over-performed, and this district wasn't even supposed to be competitive. Crenshaw reminds me of Will Hurd a little.

[Beet]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1065033426506522624

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6YMPAH67f4o

100%.
To think that I wrote this seat off once Romney announced.
It’s crazy to think that Love managed to lose a heavily-gerrymanderred R-leaning seat as many times as she won it.
Almost as weird as the fact that both times coincided with Mitt ‘King of Utah’ Romney’s presence on the ballot. Maybe there’s a quiet anti-Mitt vote in Salt Lake?

If she were a Dem, you guys would be screaming about how racist Utah is for not voting for her. I, for one, am not celebrating that the only black Republican in the House has lost, someone who was mocked by Trump for opposing his bigotry. Yeah, I know we don't need more Republicans and all, and if a future piece of legislation or big vote comes down to one Congressman named McAdams, it might be a good thing, but somehow I doubt it.

[Beet]

Mia Love was so opposed to Trump's bigotry that she voted with him 99% of the time. Very brave of her.

"Voted with him". Yeah most of those votes were standard party line votes on things like the budget and procedural matters. I can disagree with her on the size of government, but that's more tolerable than disagreeing with someone who dislikes me for being born the wrong skin color.

I, for one, am not celebrating that the only black Republican in the House has lost, someone who was mocked by Trump for opposing his bigotry.

Demographic representation means NOTHING if the person who is there is voting against the best interest of said demographic.

So should white people vote in the "interest of [their] demographic"?

[Beet]

Democrats are racist for not letting her run unopposed.

Not everything is about your political party. Her loss is not a bad reflection on Democrats, but it is a sad event for America. If you're a partisan Democrat and that's all you really care about, go ahead and celebrate McAdams' win. You should. It's as an American that I feel sad about it.

As long as we have a two party system, ceding the Republican Party to racism means racism will never be effectively neutered in our society.

[Beet]

Democrats are racist for not letting her run unopposed.

Not everything is about your political party. Her loss is not a bad reflection on Democrats, but it is a sad event for America. If you're a partisan Democrat and that's all you really care about, go ahead and celebrate McAdams' win. You should. It's as an American that I feel sad about it.

As long as we have a two party system, ceding the Republican Party to racism means racism will never be effectively neutered in our society.

No offense but you're wrong.  It doesn't reflect badly on America that one AA woman was unable to get elected when so many others were in majority-white districts.
It only reflects badly on Republicans who are unable to appeal to their voter base with female, nonwhite candidates.  Seeing the diversity of the new members of Congress, I would say America is doing fine (and it doesn't make a difference that all the diversity is in one party).  Republicans with their racist rhetoric are getting what they deserve.

The thing is, that is where we disagree fundamentally. America is a two-party system. That means the Republicans will get power about half the time. It does reflect badly on America when one of the major parties is totally damaged.

[Beet]

My Final Thoughts on the Midterms:

1. Yowza! Turnout

It looks like turnout for the midterms will be about 116 million. This puts it far closer to recent presidential elections (122 mil - 139 mil since 2004) than recent midterms (84 mil, 89 mil, and 83 mil since 2006). It also puts this midterm election in a whole nother world compared to usual midterms. Turnout was the highest for a midterm since at least 1966. The Democrats will get 95-100% of Trump's presidential election vote, which is the highest share for an opposition Congressional party in a midterm compared to the incumbent president in the previous election, since at least 1938. Many candidates got more than the presidential candidate of their party. For this reason alone, this midterm stands higher than even earth-shattering ones where more seats changed hands, like the 1994 midterms or the 2010 midterms. On a totally nonpartisan note, this speaks to a resurgence in democracy at a time when autocrats are on the march worldwide. Of course, turnout could always be higher, as most people still didn't vote.

2. It was a Wave

The Senate is a weird creature since there is a six-year delay. For instance, the Democrats only gained one Senate seat in the 1982 midterms in the middle of the "Reagan recession", because the base year was 1976; but gained eight seats in 1986 when Reagan was popular because the base year was 1980, when Democrats were wiped out in the Senate. This year the Democrats were defending an absurd number of seats, so even though they handily won the Senate popular vote, still lost seats.

In the House, however, the Democrats picked up 40 seats, their most since 1974, and won the popular vote by 8%, more than the Republicans won it by in 1994 or 2010, or they themselves did in 2006. They picked up more seats than they did in 2006 and will end up with a hair more seats. The nature of the seats they gained was very different than in 2006. That year, the Democrats won in a lot of Blue Dog areas; this year, they won in a lot of suburban areas that are trending towards them.

3. Republicans can't blame the Economy

It wasn't the Economy, stupid. In 2010, when Republicans gained 63 seats, the unemployment rate was 10%. In 1974, we were in the middle of the oil shock in addition to recovering from Nixon's resignation. Even in 1994, the lingering effects of the 1990-91 recession were still being felt. And in 2006, there was one overriding issue driving everything: the Iraq War, while the taint of Hurricane Katrina's aftermath and various corruption scandals also weakened the Republicans. Not so in 2018. The 2018 elections were a pure referendum on Trumpism. On his person, on his style of politics, and on how that has reflected on his party.

4. Democratic women candidates did really well

In the 2006 wave, a bunch of Democratic women lost in high profile races. This year was really the opposite, and even moreso - so many women won! Of the 29 Republicans knocked off, 15 were by women. The percentage of women in Congress will jump from 19.4% to 23.9%, the same percentage point increase as 1992, the "Year of the Woman". I think the Democrats might finally be overcoming their sexism problem, but the real test will be the presidential primaries. Alas, Republican women aren't doing so well, but there are still more of them than there are black Republicans.

5. Republicans held their own on the State level

The Republicans had strong results holding state legislative chambers. After twenty years, they will get to fully stack the Florida Supreme Court. They fully control that state, as well as Ohio, Texas, Georgia, and about 20 other states. Every single large swing state has a fully Republican legislature. If they hold onto these legislatures in 2020 they will once again control gerrymandering. As such, the Democrats will not be able to win without racking up big popular vote margins again and again, which will be a hard feat. Further, the election affirmed major Republican strength in the Electoral College, which is a good sign for Trump's re-election. Despite their loss, Republicans won the statewide elections in Florida, Iowa, and the Ohio Governorship, and came close in Wisconsin and Michigan.

[Beet]

Picking up CA-23 has really made my day!