AZ-SEN 2018: Sinema Paradiso

[Beet]

If DemsReps somehow won every competitive Senate race this cycle except for Arizona, I certainly wouldn't shed a tear.

I feel the opposite. I have an irrational resentment of McSally dating back from her Congressional election, as I felt she only won because Gabby Giffords was shot in the head. I know it's unfair to resent her for taking advantage of a tragedy to build her career, but I do.

[Beet]

Sinema is the only Dem Senate candidate I'm rooting for this cycle!

[Beet]

Sinema and Rosen are the only non-incumbent Democrats running in states that are anything close to competitive, so it's really impossible to compare. Arizona remains a highly Republican state, and it doesn't have the sort of ancestral Democrats that other states have. Republicans have won every Senate election in Arizona since 1988. That being said, it is open to some progressive economic messages. The state is definitely flipable this year.

[Beet]

McSally would be smart to hammer Sinema on her more progressive past. If she successfully does that, Sinema's entire campaign is essentially defused. She gets neither the progressive base (given her obnoxiously over the top centrist rhetoric) nor the "moderates" (given her past).

I'm skeptical of the notion that the progressive base is not going to show up in a Trump midterm just because their candidate is running to the center. They will complain but they'll show up at the end of the day because there's still a big difference between Sinema and McSally, and people who are tuned into politics know this more than anyone.

McSally has been playing up her military background, but this is one of those things that doesn't affect most of the electorate directly. Her votes to cut Medicaid and repeal Obamacare could become more important than her military background... if Sinema emphasizes those issues. So -- I'd say she's still vulnerable.

[Beet]

Sinema got so much criticism for campaigning to the center, but she has to be given credit for actually winning when Beto, Gillum, and Abrams lost. Thanks to her, Arizona is the only sunbelt state where the Democrats actually broke through this year. She would have won by an even bigger margin if it wasn't for her liberal activism from over 10 years ago too. Running moderates can work.

[Beet]

By the way, this is the seat I believe Gabrielle Giffords would likely have run for in 2012 had she not been shot, so winning it against a Republican who defeated her former District Director is really sweet. The eventual D nominee only lost by about 3%... there's a pretty good chance Giffords would be thinking of running for president now had she got into the seat.