How do Republicans win California now? (user search)
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  How do Republicans win California now? (search mode)
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Author Topic: How do Republicans win California now?  (Read 6222 times)
Beet
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« on: February 11, 2018, 11:39:26 PM »

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I don't think Hispanic citizens are too happy with the GOP's current rhetoric on immigration either.

Neither were any of the groups I mentioned (or Germans or east Asians for that matter). All became Republican-leaning groups at some point, with east Asians having left the coalition in the Obama years. The Republican party has always ranged from somewhat nativist to extremely nativist and has never been widely supported by immigrant communities.

All of these groups (again, with the exception of Asian-Americans, who largely shifted because of anti-communism) came around when they were no longer seen as minorities but rather a subset of the majority. Hispanic immigration follows very similar cultural patterns to especially Italian immigration (association with crime, Catholicism, ethnolinguistic enclaves, low-skill labor, etc.) and I predict that we will see a similar level of assimilation within the next century. I wrote a paper on the subject.

Obviously that doesn't mean Hispanic Californians will necessarily make the state Republican (see Massachusetts), but it's the best hope Republicans have. They simply can't reverse the demographics – they have to wait until the demographics don't matter as much.

The other longshot I prefer not to hope for is naval war in the South China Sea and an ensuing increase in security interests (which traditionally attract Republican voters) in California ports. An underrated part of the party's collapse in the state is the end of the Cold War and the evacuation of defense contractors from Southern CA, especially San Diego. Reversing that trend would be a step toward parity.

Also, take the emoji out of your name. It makes you impossible to quote.
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Italian, Irish and Polish are all European, whereas Hispanics are a mix of European and Amerindian. That suggests they may end up more like Asians. Besides the moral horror of starting a war to win votes, I don't think California voters think what happens to some island on the South China Sea affects their security. Virginia is heavily militarized and trending Democratic.

Why don't the GOP ever think of non-terrible solutions to their problems? One solution for you guys would simply be to eject racism from the party and try to propose good policies for California's problems. Is that possibility really so terrifying to consider?
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