I don't get all this talk of AK and MT being singled out as being vulnerable on the level of GA, ME, NC. Both have incumbents, who in the absence of scandal, should be fine in states that more than likely will vote for the Republican ticket in 2020 and more likely by double digits than not.
AK and especially MT have a long history of electing Democrats in down ballot races even as Republicans won those states easily at the presidential level. Yes, “polarization” is certainly a stronger force now than it was 15 or 20 years ago, but someone like Bullock could definitely beat Daines (who is not a particularly strong candidate in any way). Daines has his work cut out for him, especially if Tester easily wins reelection as most pundits and experts believe. I'm not so sure about AK, the state is trending Democratic but Berkowitz strikes me as an overrated candidate. That said, in a D wave Sullivan could certainly go down.
Bullock nearly lost re-election even though he was an insanely popular incumbent. I can't see him winning anything else, unless he runs for president.
