Is there a GOP path without Florida?

[Beet]

As Mikado pointed out, Trump would have won without Florida in 2016. Narrow as it is, the same map repeating with only Florida flipped is more likely than any other alternative of a GOP win without Florida. The reason for this is, is that while it is true that maps change from election to election based on the candidates, there usually aren't huge changes when an incumbent is running for reelection. The 2012 map was similar to the 2008 map; the 2004 map was similar to the 2000 map. The 1996 map was similar to the 1992 map; the 1984 map was similar to the 1980 map; The 1956 map was similar to the 1952 map; The 1944 map was similar to the 1940 map; and so on and so on. The big changes rather tend to happen when two candidates who have never run before are matched up, or in non-incumbent elections. Hence 2016 was a fairly big change, as was 2008, as was 2000, as was 1992, and so on. Sure there are exceptions (1980, 1972) but they are rare.

While MN and NH are among the two biggest candidates to switch, NH does not seem to be trending GOP if special elections are to be any guide, and MN's high education rates will be a barrier to Trumpism there. Hence, with the map likely to be relatively static, the most likely GOP path without Florida is indeed if the other states vote as they did before, but only Florida switches.