Both Granholm and Stabenow will win but it won't make Michigan soild democrat. Stabenow will win due to lack of good candidate. Granholm will win for the same reason and due to the fact that the michigan republican party is ing stupid.
Sadly, a lot of local Republican parties in the Midwest (namely Michigan, Illinois, and Ohio) have serious problems.
Why Ohio? I thought the GOP controlled everything there?
The governor's scandal, maybe?
In any case, I take state legislative
behavior to be the best indicator of a state's political leanings, if only because this is the lowest and most local level of government, therefore the most "grassroots" level, where party id means something close to what it means nationally. Executive positions like the governorship are of course important, but are not quite as partisan since the governor's job isn't to pass laws.