Most likely neither Hillary nor Trump will be their party's nominee.

[Beet]

Before anyone freaks out about me freaking out, I am only about 70% sure of Hillary at this point, but 90% sure of Trump.

For Hillary, it's a matter of probability. There are simply too many things that could go wrong for her, and the dynamics of the race just aren't good. The longer it drags out, the more Bernie's superior fundraising, volunteer and enthusiasm numbers grind her down.

For Trump, it's a matter of him being increasingly unacceptable. His chance in early March was to move towards a more 'presidential' and mainstream style, and reassure establishment Republicans. Instead, he's gone, and been pushed, the other way. He's fading out of the mainstream, and away from viability.

For both candidates, their problem is that there are simply too many people against them. To get a nomination, at some point, one's opponents must accept your victory, and that doesn't happen for either of these two, for differing reasons.

[Beet]

Unless the planets align in the wake of a blue moon and Sanders wins North Carolina, it is mathematically impossible for him to win the nomination. You can let go of your pearls, my friend.

Currently the odds of me being right are only 7.7% on PredictIt. Let's see if I'm right

EDIT: And yes, it is mathematically possible for Elizabeth Warren to jump into the race tomorrow, take every pledged delegate going forward, and go into the convention with more than either Hillary or Bernie. Will it happen? No. But is it possible? Yes. Stop saying my predictions are mathematically impossible because if that was true, Bernie wouldn't be campaigning.

[Beet]

Yes, he could blow her out in New York and California.

Her delegate lead is ~210. After tonight, it could be more like ~250 if she gets big margins in FL and NC and loses narrowly in the north. With blowout wins in the upcoming lily white caucus states, he can cut her delegate lead down by about 100. Can he then make up 150 delegates in the remaining states, including New York, Pennsylvania, and California? Certainly.

He has a superior message, superior volunteer effort, superior fundraising -- his campaign in superior in every way (except the candidate, but that's just my personal O). Yet despite this, he still gets to keep the underdog aura due to his delegate deficit. So the longer it goes on, the more he rolls.

Btw, Hillary's wins so far have been based on her name reputation and running out the clock. If you had put these dynamics in Alabama and just let it marinate for 8 months, Bernie could have absolutely flipped the state.

[Beet]

You're saying things that simply aren't true. He can cut her lead by about ~100 delegates between now and New York by blowing out the lily white states, even if he gets nothing out of Arizona and Hawaii. California alone has 475 delegates. There are plenty of delegates to go, and with his superior campaign it's more likely he'll get them or not.

[Beet]

The Republican nomination is a complete crapshoot at this point. Trying to predict it would be foolhardy. But if Trump is rejected, the Republicans will have done a good job of setting up a boogeyman on the far right who makes whomever they eventually choose look reasonable and moderate. At that point, if Sanders is the nominee, his revolution becoming a (at least partial) reality may be the only hope for Democrats.

Comparisons to 2008 are problematic because the stasis between Hill and O in that race, was due to the lack of substantive differences between the candidates. It become all about identity politics and demographics. It was trench warfare. If I'm right, this'll be more like World War II than World War I. I'll admit Bernie's message is very strong and it may provide him the "blitz" necessary to win a proportional system.

[Beet]

I don't understand why people think Bernie's chances are so low. He's outraising her, outspending her, generates more enthusiasm, generates more positive press coverage, and just won a big upset victory in Michigan. He should be favored, not just from some widely-mocked Beet prediction (yeah, I know where I stand here), but by conventional prognosticators like Nate Silver and the majority of the board.