Democratic MI/MS election results thread (first results @8pm ET)

[Beet]

I have a feeling this could end up like Massachusetts - Clinton was supposed to romp there, and it ended up being very close. That said, I think she will have a decisive win, at least 52 to 48.

[Beet]

+11 is what the YouGov poll has for Michigan. I'm not sure why 538 has that silly Mitchell poll weighted so high.

[Beet]

If Sanders wins an upset, all bets are off. If he takes Illinois, Missouri, and Ohio next Tuesday (especially Ohio plus one of either Illinois or Missouri), then follows up with a 6-2 or better ratio until the New York primary, Hillary is really on her heels.

[Beet]

If the exits are right, and Sanders has 34% of the black vote, then that explains Wayne county. Honestly I think Sanders wins at this point.

[Beet]

PredictIt has crashed. 'Server error in application.'

[Beet]

This would actually only result in an even split of delegates and Sanders is still way behind in delegates. Clinton has over 1000 delegates all together and with this being a delegate game, even if Sanders does win Michigan, he won't get a delegate lead.

The problem is, Michigan throws into question Hillary's northern black support, plus polls in Ohio, Illinois and Missouri on March 15. If Sanders takes just one or two states that day, his narrative going into late March and April will be strong.

[Beet]

Flint is within 8 points. Macomb is within 2 points. Wayne has been coming in for a while since 9 PM, and it isn't closing. Meanwhile, Grand Rapids is a 30 point Sanders lead. Plus, there are exit polls. I'm calling it for Sanders.

This is absurd. The biggest polling failure since 1948, and in 1948, the excuse was they stopped polling six weeks before the election.

This may be the moment when it's realized that whatever pollsters are doing to compensate for the migration away from landlines isn't working.

Either way, this confirms all my worst nightmares. And people say I'm too pessimistic.

[Beet]

HARRY ENTEN
I’m looking on the Wayne County clerk’s website to try to get an idea of where the vote is being reported from in Wayne County. It seems, at least as of earlier this hour, that Detroit was at 0 percent. The nearly uniformly white areas of Grosse Pointe Shores and Plymouth were at 100 percent. In other words, the percentages coming out of Wayne County right now don’t really reflect how black areas are voting.

That was "earlier this hour". A lot has come in since then, and it's not closing.

[Beet]

It's surprisingly close in Washtenaw, only 9 points.

[Beet]

Sanders is winning in Flint... absolutely devastating to Clinton. The water crisis was her signature issue from even last year.

[Beet]

The networks may be ready to call it soon.

[Beet]

Honestly, the water crisis in Flint is so atrocious to me, and the fact that it permeated every level of that stupid governorship, that I hope Rick Snyder is not only recalled, but is jailed for murder.

Do you at least give her some credit for bringing it up?

[Beet]

Tonight is significant not because of delegates, not because of momentum, not because of bragging rights or upsets or whatever, but because of what it signifies. Michigan was the first big industrial Midwest state to vote. It's a harbinger of things to come in delegate-rich Illinois, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. I mean, if Sanders does as well in Cook county as he did in Wayne, he'll carry Illinois. If he does as well in Cuyahoga, he'll carry Ohio. If he does as well in Philly, he'll carry Pennsylvania. And so on. That's huge.

[Beet]

Tonight is significant not because of delegates, not because of momentum, not because of bragging rights or upsets or whatever, but because of what it signifies. Michigan was the first big industrial Midwest state to vote. It's a harbinger of things to come in delegate-rich Illinois, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. I mean, if Sanders does as well in Cook county as he did in Wayne, he'll carry Illinois. If he does as well in Cuyahoga, he'll carry Ohio. If he does as well in Philly, he'll carry Pennsylvania. And so on. That's huge.

Hillary also won most Midwest states in 08. He has the same problem she had, but even bigger: it's not enough to overcome the Southern blowout.

Well yeah, but he could get 90-100 delegates during the Western caucus blowouts of April. That makes it close enough that things like momentum could actually tip the scales.

[Beet]

Well if there's one silver lining for Clinton, this is the worst day of the campaign, until the day she drops out. We'll never be upset this badly again. Even if the polls show her up 40 points, I won't believe it. It's game time.