Nevada Democratic Caucus Result

[Beet]

Yeah but what was the basis of Clinton's non-black primary support in 08? She won working class voters because a lot of them saw Obama as a Lincoln-praising neo-liberal from blood red Kansas. Those same voters will go for Sanders over Clinton because he offered them more. How many make under $15 an hour?

They've got one candidate saying it'll happen, even if there's only a 10% chance. They've got another candidate saying it'll never happen, e.g. 0% chance. If you're making $11 an hour, which do you pick?

[Beet]

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Do you have any evidence that the polls showing Sanders winning lower income voters is entirely a product of the age effect? He won every demographic except those making over $200k/year in New Hampshire, e.g. the top 1%.

Even if he was only doing equally well as Clinton with working class whites, it would be amazing. Even since the hard hat rebellion in 1970, it has been an article of faith that the better you do among college students, the worse you do among the working class.

[Beet]

No, Obama did worse among the working class. He only did better in the general.

This is quite remarkable. Liberal intellectuals rarely connect with the working class. Even Karl Marx didn't. In a way, it's the holy grail of the Left.

Sanders isn't winning because people see him as a better personality or he got a good news cycle or any nonsense like that. He's winning on the basis of deep historical / structural divides -- a contradiction in society, as a Marxist would put it. This is why Clinton's not going to turn it around simply by putting in a good debate performance or overperforming low expectations in Nevada.

[Beet]

Most working class voters are voting for Trump, so I'd imagine whatever rump group leftover is more liberal than in 2008.

As of today, that literally is not true. Sanders got more working class white votes than Trump in the sum of the two states that voted so far.

[Beet]

Most working class voters are voting for Trump, so I'd imagine whatever rump group leftover is more liberal than in 2008.

As of today, that literally is not true. Sanders got more working class white votes than Trump in the sum of the two states that voted so far.

How are you teasing that out of the exit polls? It's not like all whites who make before a certain threshold are "working class". In Iowa, at least, Trump's support was highly correlated with rates of typical working class employment.

He got half the vote in Iowa. Trump got a quarter. Even with higher GOP turnout, he'd have had to have won overwhelmingly among Iowa's poor white Republicans to come close to Sanders' number.