Some of the young uns here don't remember the level of hysteria over AIDS in the late 1980s and early 1990s. While Highly Active Anti-Retroviral Therapy (HAART) dates to
July 1996, I remember being startled to read articles celebrating the sharp decline in AIDS deaths in the autumn of 1998. It was around this time that society became aware that the disease had been contained. In fact if you google it, lots of charts
end in 1998.
The gay rights movement also jumpstarted around this time. I would say it was definitely established after Vermont shocked the nation by allowing civil unions in the spring of 2000. Yet it was always interesting... after the personal liberty revolution of the 1960s and Stonewall riots in 1969... it took 30 years for gay rights to really take hold as a movement. During this time AIDS was active c.1981-1998 and dominated a lot of public attention, including that of gay rights activists.
I suspect that without AIDS, we may have seen gay rights emerge even sooner.