1. The Chicago business barometer came in at 49.9 today, with the employment subindex especially weak. This portends job growth at about the same as last month, although I wouldn't be surprised if it was less than 100k. This is especially if tomorrow's ISM manufacturing report comes in below 50.
There is chatter out there on the Fruited Plain that it is more likely to go up than down, because the last report had some alleged "anomalies," "artificially lowering the unemployment number a tad vis a vis the number actually working. Whether that chat is just jive or not, I have no clue.
2. What anomalies?
3. If the Gallup poll is any indication, we shouldn't see a big jump in the unemployment rate. In September, Gallup nailed unemployment, it was polling at about 7.9 percent mid-month. In October, it was polling at 7.4 percent. Unemployment claims, except for an beginning-of-quarter jump, also suggest a durable labor market.
4. Standard caveats apply when looking at single monthly figures. The three-month average is more important, and the long-term (six months or more) average is more important still.
