Beet
Atlas Star
Posts: 29,022
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« Reply #1 on: July 10, 2011, 10:32:12 PM » |
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IIRC prior to Lehman's collapse, McCain was up 5 points and he had the momentum, so the entire election was decided based on the economy. Had it not been for the economy, McCain would have won. I remember speaking to a friend on Sunday night, Sept. 14 about the election and going home absolutely convinced Obama was going to lose.
It's true that Obama talked more about Iraq in the early stages of the primary, but that was the primary. And even the primary only started out as being about Iraq. It ended up being more about political style. The Clinton people saw her as a champion of the working class, a fighter, and a feminist; the Obama people saw him as bringing a new generation into politics, running a campaign based on grassroots activists and not special interests, and being the first black President. Iraq was basically McCain's issue by the summer of 2008, because he could say (and did) that he was right about the surge.
I think Obama will lose next year, yes, because of the poor economy, if the Republicans nominate someone who doesn't scare away too many. Yes, I do think the GOP can still blow it.
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