Ecuador presidential and legislative elections (February 7th and April 11th, 2021)

[kaoras]

Any sense who the leading candidates are? Galarza and Pacheco seem like the only remotely decent ones, so I hope one of them at least is well positioned.

Peña Pacheco? If she still in PAIS after everything that has happened I have absolutely 0 reasons to believe she won't be another traitor like Moreno.

[kaoras]

Exit Poll:

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1358538998445035521

Other polls are broadly similar. I think Arauz should be favored for a second turn but the Perez vote will not go uniformly to him (and much less Hervas' which will probably go mainly to Lasso)

[kaoras]

Unless the remaining vote count in Guayas (Guayaquil) is extremely favorable to Arauz I think that Lasso got this. His margin there is way below what is needed to counter Pichincha (Quito). And Manabi can only do so much against the huge Lasso margins in the Sierra.

[kaoras]

60% in and now the margin is 55-45 for Lasso. I guess that'll get closer sooner or later, right?

Yeah, Manabi is huge, undercounted and with a 2-1 Margin for Arauz, but it won't be enough