If the Mexicans in Texas keep going back to Mexico as they are presently doing during the bad economic times, Texas won't get that fourth seat.
It seems like Texas would be one place where they wouldn't leave. Places like CA or Nevada are more likely emigration points because of weakened economies. It would be interesting to see the actual migration numbers for Mexicans by state.
I think the Katrina factor will also be a determining factor in whether or not Texas gets its fourth seat. Louisiana has almost returned to its pre-Katrina population so its possible people are leaving Texas to return to their home state.