Was Obama Going To Win From The Beginning?

[Padfoot]

No and the events leading to Obama's win were largely out of his control IMO.  Its true that Democrats had the advantage coming in due to Bush's dismal approval ratings.  Plus, they had momentum coming off their rout in 2006.  That set the stage for a Democrats to do well.  But here's the four things I think pushed it over to them definitively.

1. Hillary Clinton:  Clinton's refusal to quit enabled Obama to build a nationwide network of volunteers and donors while McCain sat around doing nothing backstage (out of sight out of mind).  This also gave Obama a bit of and edge because it gave him a better idea of which states he would be more likely to win against McCain.  I highly doubt Obama would have won North Carolina or Indiana in the general if Clinton had dropped out before those primaries.

2. Sarah Palin:  Palin turned out to be one of the worst vice presidential nominees ever.  Its true she motivated the so-called Republican "base" but she alienated almost everyone else.  Her views on abstinence and sex education made her look ridiculous for obvious reasons.  If the intent was to draw in the PUMAs then the plan totally backfired since any self-respecting female Democrat could see Palin was far from the kind of female candidate they were looking for.  Oh, and she turned out to be a complete moron and a lightweight on every issue that actually mattered. 

3. The Economy + McCain's reaction to it: McCain's self-admitted lack of knowledge about economic issues on day one should have kept him from even getting past the primaries.  So, when the economic meltdown happened McCain's reaction was tragically predictable.  He freaked out and that scared the crap out of people.  When the captain who is supposed to be leading you through troubled waters panics its a sign that he has no clue what to do.  That, plus the fact that Democrats typically have the advantage when the economy tanks, was the straw that broke the camel's back.