I imagine the map would look something like this:
I too concur with this map with the exception of Nevada. It was such a decisive win for Obama and Hillary had a strong showing here during the caucus so I'm pretty sure it would have gone for her.
She certainly wouldn't have been able to pull of Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana, or NE-2. Colorado would be difficult for her but its possible it might have gone her way. She also would have had a decent shot at Kentucky IMO.
Down ballot Kay Hagan might have lost her Senate race if Hillary were the nominee but I have a feeling Mitch McConnell would have gone down instead. There probably wouldn't be a run-off in Georgia as decreased black turnout would have assured Chambliss getting over 50%. With Hillary atop the ticket I highly doubt McCain would have looked twice at Palin. I'd put my money on him choosing Huckabee instead in an effort to protect Arkansas. Without Palin to boost the turnout of Alaska conservatives, Begich would have won by now. I don't think she would have been any better for the end result in Senate.
In the House the possibilities are endless but I don't think too much would change. The loss of Palin would have brought Young down along with Stevens in Alaska. But I don't think Sali would have lost in ID-1 with Clinton on the ticket. Its possible Clinton could have boosted Boswell in KY-2 but I think that would have been canceled out by a Kratovil loss in MD-1. In Missouri, Clinton might have helped Baker over the top in the 9th but she may have hurt Driehaus in Ohio's 1st where increased black turnout was a factor. She also would have hurt Nye and Perriello in VA-2 and VA-5 respectively. But its possible should could have pushed Hedrick over the top in the surprisingly close race in CA-44.
Bottom line, although Clinton's path to 270 would have been slightly different than Obama's I doubt the end results would have been that much different.
