If Barack leads by 100 delegates at convention time would you Dems be ok if (user search)
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  If Barack leads by 100 delegates at convention time would you Dems be ok if (search mode)
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Author Topic: If Barack leads by 100 delegates at convention time would you Dems be ok if  (Read 3345 times)
Padfoot
padfoot714
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« on: March 06, 2008, 11:12:37 PM »

Pennsylvania: preceded by Wyoming and Mississippi which will be Obama landslides; I know those two combined only have a third of the delegates PA has but they'll put a break in the Clinton momentum between now and April 22nd; if Clinton wins PA 60-40 and Obama wins MS 55-45 and WY 60-40 its a net gain of 27 for Clinton

Indiana and West Virginia: Indiana votes on the same day as North Carolina (May 6th) which Obama will probably win 55-45, if Clinton wins IN and WV 60-40 its a net gain of 6 for Clinton

Kentucky: votes on the same day as Oregon (May 20th) which has one more delegate; Clinton wins KY 60-40 and Obama wins OR 52-48; net gain of 9 for Clinton

Then after this you still have Montana, South Dakota, and Puerto Rico.  All three of these are unknowns as far as I'm concerned.  Obama has won all the other small western states but those were caucuses and MT and SD are primaries so its unclear how things will play out.  Puerto Rico, on the other hand, is a caucus but it will be dominated by Latino voters which have favored Clinton.  However, I imagine Puerto Ricans are not going to care very much about immigration and the other "mainland Hispanic" issues.

So in summary, even if Clinton wins 60-40 in the four states you mentioned its unlikely this would create a large enough amount of momentum for the superdelegates to feel comfortable overturning a 100+ Obama lead in pledged delegates.
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