GOP Finds Candidate in OH-15 (user search)
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  GOP Finds Candidate in OH-15 (search mode)
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Author Topic: GOP Finds Candidate in OH-15  (Read 1304 times)
Padfoot
padfoot714
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« on: November 05, 2007, 02:27:14 PM »

Here's the link to the Dispatch story.  Its about time they finally found a candidate.  Kilroy has been fundraising her butt off and is expected to have around half a million cash on hand by January.

I don't know much about Ohio politics, so fill me in if you will.  Considering the woman he's vying to replace is a Republican, is this a Republican-safe district? or is it a swing district that could easily go Democratic, other variables aside?  If it is a swing district, what are his chances?
OH-15 is my district so I know a bit about its politics.  Its definitely a swing district.  With the exception of 2006 Pryce normally won by a comfortable margin due in part to her moderate positions on several issues.  She is also a champion of children's issues which made her even more popular.

The swinginess of the district comes from the combination of Democratic voting Columbus precincts and the conservative voting Union and Madison counties.  OH-15 also encompasses most of the western suburbs of Columbus.

Kilroy, the Democrat, has a leg up because she is popular in the more populous Franklin County portion of the district and she has district-wide name recognition after being narrowly defeated for the seat in 2006.  In order for Stivers to win he'll have to be within 5 points of Kilroy in Franklin County.  If he can do that he should be able to rely on the 25-30 point advantage the GOP usually  has in Union and Madison counties to win.  However, being within 5 points of Kilroy in Franklin County is probably going to be near impossible especially during a presidential year.
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Padfoot
padfoot714
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,530
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: -6.96

« Reply #1 on: November 06, 2007, 02:37:34 AM »


She was usually one of the driving forces behind legislation relating to the welfare of children.  (i.e. child pornography laws, education, children's healthcare, ect.).

Not that I disagree, but I seem to remember one of the reasons Ohio trended Democrat in 2004 was because of an economic downturn in the state (dunno/don't remember if it was attributable to Bush in some way).  I don't know if the condition has improved to such an extent which would ameilorate that D trend enough for an R win, but I'm just not quite sure that there's a D-trend sufficient enough to take the district or if we saw some sort of economic based R-backlash in 04 (due to the poor economy in Bush's first term) that now may not exist (or exist as strongly).

Ohio is still bleeding manufacturing jobs like the rest of the Rust Belt so the economic conditions really haven't improved that much.  Thus any economic related D-trend is likely to continue.  In fact, the 2006 Senate and Gubernatorial election results are in part a testament to its continuation.  However, the Columbus area wasn't hit as hard as the rest of the state because it has a different and more diversified economy so I don't think you can argue that the economy is the driving force behind the D-trend in Central Ohio.

Since Columbus is the state capital there are always tons of government and government related jobs.  Also, the Columbus area is home to a large number of colleges and universities.  So it is no surprise that the State of Ohio, Ohio State University, and the US Government are the three largest employers in Central Ohio with 46,000 employees between them.  There are also lots of jobs provided by other local governments and educational institutes giving Columbus a nice safety cushion.  Columbus is dominated by insurance companies and restaurant chains in the private sector with a few manufacturing, chemical, and technological related jobs as well.  Essentially what has been a manufacturing related economic crisis for the State of Ohio has been a minor downturn for Columbus.  So I don't think that the economy is a major factor when considering a Democratic trend in the Columbus area. 

I think that demographics and a generally moderate voters have contributed more towards the Democratic shift in the Columbus area.  Columbus is a pretty diverse place and it continues to become more diverse as the city is currently a popular home for first generation Somali and Latino immigrants.  Columbus is also fairly gay friendly, especially in comparison to other major cities in Ohio.  As the GOP has continued to march steadily to the right Columbus has moved to the middle so Democrats have been able to capitalize on that by staying closer to the middle as well.

So to sum up, OH-15 will likely be voting for the Democratic candidate in both the actual House race and in the presidential race.  And this result will likely have more to do with demographic trends and a moderate voting history rather than economic issues.
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