Rasmussen: Warner (D) leads Gilmore (R) by 16 (user search)
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  Rasmussen: Warner (D) leads Gilmore (R) by 16 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Rasmussen: Warner (D) leads Gilmore (R) by 16  (Read 1444 times)
Padfoot
padfoot714
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Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: -6.96
« on: October 31, 2007, 02:37:42 AM »
Quote from: bullmoose88 on October 30, 2007, 05:21:15 PM
It will be very interesting to see how the margin tightens up (and by how much) by election day.

Warner will likely win, but I can't see it being by 16 points...or 10...

It will definitely be less than 10 and possibly less than 5 but I'm not expecting another nail biter like the Allen/Webb race.  I'd be shocked if Warner got less than 52%.
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Padfoot
padfoot714
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,531
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: -6.96
« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2007, 01:21:30 AM »
Quote from: Smash255 on October 31, 2007, 03:55:30 PM
Quote from: padfoot714 on October 31, 2007, 02:37:42 AM
Quote from: bullmoose88 on October 30, 2007, 05:21:15 PM
It will be very interesting to see how the margin tightens up (and by how much) by election day.

Warner will likely win, but I can't see it being by 16 points...or 10...

It will definitely be less than 10 and possibly less than 5 but I'm not expecting another nail biter like the Allen/Webb race.  I'd be shocked if Warner got less than 52%.

Its going to be more than that.  You are dealing with an extremely popular Gov. going against one who wasn't that popular.  On top of that much of what Warner is credited with is cleaning up the mess Gilmore left.

More than 10?  I'm skeptical.  I suppose its possible for Warner to take 56% but this is a highly competitive open seat race and I don't think anything more than 10 points is achievable.  Its going to be somewhere within the 10-4 range IMO.
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