It's been two weeks since I last did this:
Here are the States that would need 10 or fewer of the existing 197 predictions to be changed to affect the map (assuming my idea of how the results are being tabulated is correct). Only the changes marked below in bold would affect the line graph:
Delaware: 6 (-2 from last time) Weak D or lower to Strong D would change the prediction from Weak D to Strong D.
Hawaii: 6 (+4 from last time) Strong D to Weak D or less would change the prediction from Strong D to Weak D.
Missouri: 7 (-1 from last time) Tossup or lower to Weak R or higher would change the prediction from Tossup to Weak R.
New Hampshire:8 (+5 from last time) Weak D or higher to Tossup or less would change the prediction from Weak D to Tossup.
Pennsylvania: 3 (-1 from last time) Tossup or lower to Weak D or higher would change the prediction from Tossup to Weak D.
Florida and Minnesota were within range if a change in their strength prediction, but no longer are.
Colorado, Missouri, Nevada, and Texas were within range of a change in their percentage prediction, but no longer are.
Net changes in the predictions over the past two weeks have overall seen a slight change towards the Democrats. Some of the change is due to the increase in sample size, but not all. Still from here on out, my threshold for looking at which States are susceptible to a change in prediction will be 5% of the sample size rounded to the nearest integer, with halves rounded to the nearest even integer.
thanks for keeping tabs on this Ernest. Its very interesting.
