Because the Dems don't have enough opportunities in 2008...

[Padfoot]

tom Davis also comes from a house district which is trending strongly Democratic and if he ran the house seat is likely gone for the GOP.

Uh, I think you're firmly situated in a magical fantasy land where the trees are covered in gumdrops and kittens have wings and crap gold bars.

Davis' district, VA-11, is still an R+3 district.  It'd be a competitive race, but if you think its somehow a safe Democratic pick-up, well...just wash your hands after touching all those "gold bars."

That was in 2004 that it was R+3, I believe. I was amazed when I looked up data on the unflux of people moving into NOVA. Somewhere around 90,000 a year.

His district may be growing, but it's not going to go from R+3 to D+10 overnight.

What kind of candidate was his opposition in 2006?  According to wikipedia Davis outspent his opponent 9-1 and took 55% making 2006 his most expensive campaign as well as his closest re-election margin.  Also, according to CQPolitics the district went 50-49 for Bush, which essentially makes it either a swing district or a slightly Democratic district if current assumptions about NOVA growth and demographic shifts hold true.  If Democrats continue to hold the momentum going into 2008 then I would say this seat is a lean Democrat pick-up should Davis run for the Senate.  If he runs in VA-11 again I'd say it is a no-favorite toss-up depending on the strength of his challenger.

[Padfoot]

The sincere problem with a lot of this speculation continues to be the assumption that 2008 will be a lot like 2006, an assumption just as problematic as the assumption in June 2005 that 2006 would be a lot like 2004.

Since I've been cleaning up the forum of late and reading through threads from this era, the comparison is highly enlightening.

Definitely words to the wise there.  Especially for those predicting landslide Democratic victories.  There really is no way for anyone to say with certainty what 2008 will look like.  18 months is a long time.  Who knows what will happen to the world during the next year and a half.  However I do think the Democrats definitely have cause to be optimistic at this point in time.