Hillary Clinton and Arkansas

[Padfoot]

In 1992 and 1996 Clinton carried the Southern States of Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, Kentucky, Missouri and West Virginia.  In 1992 he had Georgia and in 1996 he had Florida.  Arkansas was the only one of those states to grant him a majority (rather than a plurality) in BOTH elections.  I think given those results, combined with Democratic dominance of congressional and local races gives Hillary more than a good chance of winning Arkansas.  Wether or not she can carry any other Southern States remains to be seen.  I think her best chances are in Florida, Louisiana, West Virginia, Missouri, and Virginia in that order.

[Padfoot]

Two things could conceivably get her a surprising majority there: 1) Serious anti-republican economic backlash, 2) Husband campaigning effectively on her behalf.  The first is not unlikely - the state is abysmally poor and getting worse off, relatively speaking, in the right-wing economy.

I would add a conservative running as an independent to that list.  I think that it is conceivable given a Guliani or even McCain win in the GOP primary that a more conservative candidate would run as an independent.

[Padfoot]

What is the significance of the pink states?  I can't see any qualities that they all share exclusively.  Are you simply predicting close races in those states only should Hillary win the Dem nomination?