Hammy
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Posts: 11,702
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« on: October 29, 2020, 04:57:27 PM » |
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Comparison with 2016:
Florida was D 46-45, final result was R 48-47, so not too far off from the margin. Still a lot of undecideds but if we account for how they broke in 2016, we'd get about D 50-49.
Iowa was 44-44 and Clinton actually underperformed here, while Trump overperformed by 7. R 52-42 could be drawn from that though I doubt it'll be that wide. Either way probably not good for Biden.
Ohio was R 46-41, final result was R 51-43. Both over-performed and it came down to undecideds, and a similar error would result in Biden 50-48.
Pennsylvania was D 48-43, final result was R 48-47 (though technically only off by a half point with Hillary)--not horrible compared to some of the other Pennsylvania polls. 51-49 can easily be taken from this, too close for comfort but doesn't have room for calling the wrong winner as 2016 as Biden is over 50 with less undecideds.
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