Coronavirus & 2020

[Hammy]

LOL as if Americans actually care about the nuances of why the economy is tanking.

It tanked in 2001 2002 and Bush still got re-elected Einstein

Last time I checked, Bush was reelected in 2004, not during a year that the economy tanked.

[Hammy]

We haven’t seen an economic slowdown caused by a virus / natural calamity during an election year. So it’s not comparable to past economic slowdowns. It’s a virus produced by nature, occurring first in a market in China. It affected the whole world. It’s not something he could’ve averted in any way.

I don’t think he’ll get the blame. Polls on this issue show that Republicans approve of the way he is handling it while Democrats disapprove (just as expected). So politically, not much here.

Independents are definitely going to be the deciding factor in this. If they don't blame Trump for the economy taking, he wins reelection. If they do then it's pretty much over for him.

[Hammy]

JP Morgan projects an imminent recession:

The US economy could shrink by 2% in the first quarter and 3% in the second, JPMorgan projected, while the eurozone economy could contract by 1.8% and 3.3% in the same periods.

...The key to avoiding an even worse hit to global growth lies in countries' policy responses, the bank's economists said: Authorities need to target ailing sectors with stimulus measures, limit financial-market stress, and prop up consumer demand through monetary policy. Any shortfall risks a recession lasting throughout 2020, the firm added.

2020 could end up looking a lot like 2008.

If people show up to vote in the first place, which seems increasingly in doubt.

[Hammy]

This alone will cause a landslide election, you heard it here first.

Yes, but in whose favor? If there's a massive turnout reduction from widespread fear/lockdowns, it certainly wont be Trump supporters staying home.