Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Hammy]

538 Gives Heller an over 95% chance of winning

Are they going solely based on the votes counted?

[Hammy]

Just going to point this out... Kara Eastman is only down by 4 in NE-02 with 88% reporting.

Maybe, just maybe, if national Democratic groups like DCCC, House Majority PAC, etc which spent hardly anything there had spent a few million more there instead, perhaps it could have been enough.

But we will never know, because they never really gave her a chance.

Yep. A perfect example of the corrupt Democrat leadership shooting themselves in the foot yet again. It's why they lost in 2016 and why they are under-performing again tonight.

Imagine thinking Democrats are underperforming in this election.

God, the left sucks in the country.

They are underperforming. They are getting less than the polls showed, especially in the Senate, and doing far worse than most on Atlas thought, because their expectations were even further overblown.

[Hammy]

Arizona seems like it's taking forever to come in again

[Hammy]

Nevada R+6 with Vegas still out--I dare say the Dems have this

[Hammy]

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Democrats were never favored to win the senate, even you said this yourself. They won the house fairly easily even with the gerrymandering and look to be on pace to win 30-40 seats.

Honestly, Dems are never going to win with some of you no matter what they do.

They weren't favored for the Senate overall, but there's no reason Arizona should be this close, no reason Florida should've been lost, and no reason the margins in Indiana or Missouri should've been what they were, or the seat retentions in the upper Midwest. And we're looking at the increasing possibility of Tester losing as well.

And remember without the Senate the GOP owns the courts--unlikely as it was I would've taken it over the House which doesn't stop Trump's long term damage.

[Hammy]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Democrats were never favored to win the senate, even you said this yourself. They won the house fairly easily even with the gerrymandering and look to be on pace to win 30-40 seats.

Honestly, Dems are never going to win with some of you no matter what they do.

They weren't favored for the Senate overall, but there's no reason Arizona should be this close, no reason Florida should've been lost, and no reason the margins in Indiana or Missouri should've been what they were, or the seat retentions in the upper Midwest. And we're looking at the increasing possibility of Tester losing as well.

And remember without the Senate the GOP owns the courts--unlikely as it was I would've taken it over the House which doesn't stop Trump's long term damage.

Arizona has always been close and FL is FL. Them losing in MO and IN by that margin when Trump won those states by double digits is no surprise.

Like I said, it doesn't matter how well Dems did today. You already had your narrative set. I mean you were saying how the Dems blew it in the house earlier in the thread.

That was mostly to get the meltdown out of the way, they did do better in the House than I expected (but worse than pretty much everyone else here expected, but that's on Atlas more than anything)

My point was that the people saying they're underperforming in the Senate, relative to the polls, are correct, and that it's a bigger deal because the Senate is more important because of the judiciary--laws in Congress can be overturned later, judicial appointments can't.

[Hammy]

CNN is horribly behind it looks like--nothing in eastern Nevada is showing up yet and somebody posted an update after Clark County came in from elsewhere.

[Hammy]

Dems also appear to have swept the statewide offices in Nevada. The R incumbent Secretary of State and Controller both lost. Sisolak wins the gubernatorial election.

Overall gubernatorial numbers nationwide are D+7, with some chance the Ds could win Alaska as well, though early results have Dunleavy ahead.

One lesson, I think, that should be derived from these results is that the state by state fundamentals are very important. Fundamentals pointed to Republican victories in Indiana, North Dakota, Missouri, Texas, and Tennessee, and to a Democratic victory in Nevada. Another lesson is that polarization has now invaded the lower-ballot races, and will be the overriding constant across the board from this point forward, unless a realignment or massive demographic shift occurs.

Spot on, but TX is also trending Democratic and O'Rourke nearly pulled it off.

Texas is certainly one of the brightest spots of tonight, given the two flips and how close other districts were, not to mention how close O'Rourke came.

[Hammy]

Am I seeing this right? Did the Dems actually sweep mainland New England in the House?

[Hammy]

F*** that. Democrats have to get over trying to win Miss Congeniality or be happy with the silver medal. Go for the win. This is why people have trouble taking the Democratic party seriously.

Democrats need to understand that it is perfectly okay to adopt Vince Lombardi's motto that winning isn't the most important thing, it's the only thing! And yet at the same time not be some date raping Joc from like for example grab a 15 year-old girl in a party cover her mouth keep her against her will while squee turns Up the Volume so others can't hear her struggling.

I mean, Dems won the national popular vote by something like 10 points, right? What do you want? How much do Dems have to win by and still lose for you to stop blaming voters for voting for Dems and start blaming the system for not reflecting the will of the voters?

If Dems won by 15 and lost seats in the Senate, would you blame the voters for not voting strongly enough Dem?

If Dems won by 20?

Should Dems need to win by 25?

What would be the appropriate threshold?

Dems should never have failed to take back the senate in 2016 in the first place. That whole election was unforgivable as we're still paying for it.

[Hammy]

Is there a map anywhere of where the Dem House pickups were (like just the pickups?) It'd be interesting to see all at once where they were

[Hammy]

Will Hurd lost

Yep, and CNN has it called for him, lol.

CNN's total has Hurd up by 7000, or is that too out of date? (and if so is there something more up to date to get the totals?)

[Hammy]

I think Connecticut would be a bigger upset than Kansas, by a small amount.

Most of the outstanding vote seems to be from Hartford (8% with east at 0%) and Stratford (0%) as per CNN's map which is at 99% otherwise

[Hammy]

Sh!ttiest consolation prize ever.

https://twitter.com/KCStar/status/1060049222077157376

Not really, by state constitution, the Missouri state auditor picks somebody to draw legislative disitricts!

Not much but I'll take it at least!

Interesting thing going on with Montana, Tester still behind but shrank the margin from 4k to 3k between the 66% and 75% mark in vote counting. Not gone yet (still could be) but the margin is shrinking which is always good. It'll be extremely close regardless.

[Hammy]

From twitter



So functionally the GOP retains the House too

[Hammy]

Arizona looking likely to break for McSally, unless I'm reading the county breakdown wrong: https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0

If McSally narrowly wins, that would be embarrassing for Democrats. Especially since Flake only barely won in 2012 and since Sinema led in the polls throughout much of the year until McSally won the nomination.

The way the Senate played out entered embarrassment territory hours ago. This is just downright humiliating at this point.

[Hammy]

What's Tester's shot to hang on?

82% chance of winning.

R margin quite a bit larger than last check--where are the remaining votes coming from?

[Hammy]

AZ SoS said that there are "hundreds of thousands of votes" untabulated.

We're not going to know anything about AZ until later this week.

So no point staying up for a call then