Hurricane Michael thread: (Updates, commentary)

[Hammy]

I'll offer a word of caution to anyone in the possible path: for reasons unexplained, NHC (despite what the discussion said) is tossing out literally the entire model suite for their intensity forecasts, all of which (with literally one exception that's a huge outlier) are forecasting Cat 3 (and in a few cases Cat 4) intensity at landfall, so prepare for that, not just the Cat 2 being forecast.

[Hammy]

I'll offer a word of caution to anyone in the possible path: for reasons unexplained, NHC (despite what the discussion said) is tossing out literally the entire model suite for their intensity forecasts, all of which (with literally one exception that's a huge outlier) are forecasting Cat 3 (and in a few cases Cat 4) intensity at landfall, so prepare for that, not just the Cat 2 being forecast.

I would be hesitant. Florence was forecasted to be a Cat. 4 at landfall, but ended up being a Cat. 1. Gordon was expected to be a Cat. 1 at landfall, instead it made landfall as a meager Tropical Storm. Never be too sure, the forecasts usually are made a bit higher than the most likely scenario, mainly for response purposes.

Florence weakened in part due to upwelling from the increasingly slow speed, which both cut off the warm water supply, and expanded the wind field (the latter is usually something storms don't recover from) as well as dry air in part due to the location--something the models (aside from the GFS) did pick up on within the 72H period.

Either way, it's always best to prepare for a stronger storm than you get.

[Hammy]

Based on all that, I would guess Michael will either be a strong Cat 2, or a weak Cat 3...or possibly not a Hurricane at all, but a very strong non-tropical low pressure system by landfall (but that's the most unlikely scenario).

I'd say Cat 2 would be the highest probability, with Cat 3 not too far behind. But given the poor stacking and potential dry air, it's entirely possible it could peak in the Gulf as a 3 and then weaken as it comes in. Florence in 1953 did that--rapid intensification to about 125mph, then about a day before landfall weakened quickly to a Cat 1, and rapidly transitioned into a frontal low not too long after landfall (and all this on a very similar track to Michael's forecast)

[Hammy]

It's a small storm and it's got the potential to bomb out (rapidly intensify).  It won't bring the storm surge like Florence nor the flooding because it's moving too fast.  However, if your near landfall, the wind damage could be substantial.  I'm gonna be that guy and say it reaches 140.

That might not be too far off, it's up to 120 already.

[Hammy]

Here are some data resources for anyone interested (and can really apply to any active storm).

Satellite:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/
https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/

Recon:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

Radar floater:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_nws_radar_floater&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12 you can change the number of images in the loop at the end of the link.

[Hammy]

125 mph as of latest best track update, pressure 949. http://tropicalatlantic.com

Almost certainly going to reach Cat 4 (it's just 5mph shy) and many on a hurricane forum I'm on are worried it could come close to a 5.

[Hammy]

Recon had to go around the NE quadrant (usually the strongest part) due to lightning, which normally occurs during rapid intensification. Should likely be a Cat 4 by the time the next plane gets out there.

[Hammy]

I feel sorry for the meteorologists stuck following Leslie instead of Michael. Their irritation with that fish spinner is starting to show.

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I think those forecasters have a hell of a sense of humor.

I think Eric Blake is the forecaster for that advisory--his twitter feed is always filled with interesting (and often amusing) analysis

[Hammy]

Pressure down to 919 mb--the only two hurricanes that have come ashore lower than this were in 1935 and Camille in 1969.

[Hammy]

Pressure down to 919 mb--the only two hurricanes that have come ashore lower than this were in 1935 and Camille in 1969.

Deepest hurricane in 50 years to make landfall in mainland US then?

Looks that way. And the plane measured an estimate of 917mb so even as it comes in it's continuing to intensify.

It is being predicted to be a Cat. 5 at landfall by about half of sources, brace yourselves.

It's something like 2mph below that, but it wouldn't surprise me at all when the post-season report comes out if it's officially upped to a 5.

[Hammy]

On an interesting historical note, Michael was the first Cat 3 to enter Georgia since 1898.

[Hammy]

280 people unaccounted for in Mexico Beach, Florida

https://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-michael-ignored-evacuation-florida-2018-10

Oh, no.

Really hoping that people are found safe and sound. This one really blossomed quickly and surprised people. Thankfully it won't have the same flooding impact as Florence, since it's a fast-mover, but man oh man, sounds like there will be a lot of work for folks now.

Yeah, this thing rapidly intensified, it was intially projected to make landfall as a Cat. 1 iirc. A lot of people probably just didn't have the time to evacuate properly

The first reports after declaration of tropical cyclone status said that it would make landfall as a 70 MPH tropical storm, similar to Gordon just a month or two ago. Crazy right?

What makes this worse is they were actively ignoring the model intensity in favor of the shear (which was being forecast by the same models that were forecasting intensification)