The blue firewall has crumbled:
New Hampshire – 4 EV – Trump in the lead in two polls today).
Michigan – 16 EV – Trump gaining rapidly
Pennsylvania -20 EV – Trump within 2-3 and gaining
Virginia – 13 EV – Trump takes the lead in one poll, surging in others and the 2014 Gillespie effect.
Colorado – 9 EV – Trump with all the momentum, tied in one poll.
I’ll keep Wisconsin, Minnesota and New Mexico in the safe Clinton camp for now.
The paths are expanding.
I'll admit New Hampshire has me worried, she hasn't led for about four polls. Not a good sign there.
In Michigan, Trump is not gaining rapidly--The post-debate bump is dissipating and the margin has not changed at all post-Comey--both are gaining in the polls as the undecideds decide.
Pennsylvania--see Michigan, though likely to be closer than MI as it is in just about every election.
Virginia--both were gaining in the polls after the last third of October, and the spike on the chart is due literally to a single poll. I'll need to see more to believe Trump has a chance.
Colorado has stabilized in the poll averaging and a 39-39 tie is useless to go on as there are too many undecideds.
Most of the surges were likely related to Friday's Comey story, and with that dissipating in the news the polls are returning slowly to a pre-Comey level, with the exception of New Hampshire which may very well flip.
