Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver
freethinkingindy
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,378
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« on: May 06, 2024, 12:54:37 PM » |
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Haven't heard much talk on here about this, but the Indiana primaries are tomorrow and there are 3 Safe R open House seats in the state this year (as well as an open Senate seat but it looks like Jim Banks has that locked down). In addition, Victoria Spartz is facing primary challengers due to her repeated waffling on whether she's running or not and just general schizo behavior in Congress. And IN-01 is a potentially vulnerable seat held by Democrats, so it's worth following the R primary there as well.
Can anyone here with more knowledge of the Hoosier state speak to some of these candidates? Who is more moderate, who is more crazy, who is more likely to win?
IN-01
Frank Mrvan held on in 2022 so in theory he should be ok this year, but he may not be due to the fact that the trends for Democrats in this northwestern Indiana / Chicagoland district are worse than pretty much anywhere else in the country and this is the exact type of district to have a lot of voters who only show up for Trump.
It seems that the only serious Republican candidate racking up endorsements is Lake County councilor and GOP chair Randy Niemeyer. He seems generally sane and inoffensive compared to the kind of Republican you would expect would run in a district like this. Also running is a perennial candidate named Mark Levya who has been the GOP nominee for this district in 8 out of the last 11 elections.
IN-03
This seat is based in Fort Wayne and is currently held by Jim Banks, who is running for Senate. The rep before Banks, Marlin Stutzman, is running again and probably has a good shot due to name recognition. There are a bunch of other candidates, but the only other one with a somewhat high profile seems to be State Senator Andy Zay, who definitely seems like more of an extremist.
IN-05
I have no idea if Spartz will cruise to victory or if she will have a tough time, but her long list of challengers include State Rep. Chuck Goodrich and the seemingly more moderate Hamilton County treasurer Raju Chinthala. Goodrich is the only one who has been polling near Spartz. A lot of this district is in the more moderate, educated northern Indianapolis suburbs so a Spartz defeat would likely come from huge margins for her opponent in Hamilton County.
IN-06
This district contains small towns south and east of Indianapolis stretching to the Ohio border and the retiring incumbent is Greg Pence. There's a lot of candidates here and I can't really tell who has the upper hand. State Sen. Jeff Raatz and State Rep. Mike Speedy, both of whom are extremely anti-abortion, as well as former State Rep. John Jacob (who Wikipedia describes as an "anti-abortion activist") are all in the mix. Businessman Jefferson Shreve has raised and spent the most cash but I bet that's mostly self-funding. And then Vivek endorsed some random dude named Jamison Carrier who seems pretty crazy. Absolutely no clue what happens here, but it sounds like it's going to suck regardless of who wins.
IN-08
The old "Bloody Eighth" in southwest IN, containing places like Evansville and Terre Haute, is being vacated by normiecon Larry Bucshon and is sure to elect someone far, far worse this year. Based on funding and endorsements, it seems like it is State Sen. (and former Majority Leader) Mark Messmer's race to lose, but a former Rep. for this seat, John Hostettler, is also running as well as a few randos.
Combined with the fact that IN-02 (Rudy Yakym) and IN-09 (Erin Houchin) are currently represented by freshmen, and IN-04's Jim Baird was only elected in 2018, Indiana Republicans will really not have a whole lot of seniority this upcoming Congress. Who do we think are favored to win these primaries?
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