RI-01 Special Election Megathread

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

One candidate who is running is Allen Waters, who was the Republican nominee against Senator Jack Reed in 2020 (lost terribly) and the Republican nominee for this very same seat in 2022 against Cicilline (lost terribly).

Now he's running an anti-same sex marriage "Blue Dog Democrat" campaign. Lol.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

https://twitter.com/tednesi/status/1633926267736080386?s=61&t=oKp4muVGiZGb8F...

Not that it really matters, but Matos lives in the part of Providence in District 2. Funny that Magaziner had to carpetbag from CD1 and this would be the reverse just months later.

Matos was the worst performing statewide Democrat in 2022. She won by under 8 points and lost more towns than Hillary Clinton did. She outright lost CD2 - not even Hillary Clinton, Gina Raimondo or Seth Magaziner could do that.
Her electoral weakness could be a point against her in the primary if it's a crowded field. But it's CD1 so it's not at risk of flipping to the GOP. I would expect her to do well in the primary in Latino areas like Central Falls.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Some updates on this race:

-Gabe Amo, Sabina Matos, Sandra Cano, Aaron Regunberg, and self-funded businessman Don Carlson are all running ads on TV. I expect all five to make the debate, with Ana Quezada also being a possibility.

-Lower profile candidates that have made the ballot like State Reps. Stephen Casey and Spencer Dickinson, are not making a splash at all, nor is Republican-turned-ConservaDem Allen Waters.

-Progressives seem to be mainly backing Regunberg but a not insignificant are throwing support behind Cano.

-Limited polling means it isn't exactly clear how much the bad press behind the signature scandal is hurting Matos, but the fact that a) she was only a "perceived" frontrunner due to her current office and name recognition, b) her inability to clear the field and get ahead of others in polling makes her a very weak frontrunner, c) she has a proven track record of being a weak candidate (she won statewide last year by under 10% and lost towns that even Hillary Clinton won), d) her damage control press conference was regarded by many as disastrous, and e) she is lagging in fundraising, all suggest that her campaign is imploding or maybe never even had a chance to begin with (but certainly even less of one now).

-Matos reportedly just moved into District 1 last week. She was previously living in a part of Providence that is in District 2 (the city is split almost evenly between the two CDs).

-The first debate is on August 29, just a week before the primary.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Beginning to grow increasingly concerned that Regunberg is going to win the nomination with a plurality.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Beginning to grow increasingly concerned that Regunberg is going to win the nomination with a plurality.

What do you have against Regunberg? Assuming you are a progressive, he seems like someone you'd like, and if you aren't, Republicans aren't running a candidate high-profile enough to put this seat at any risk of being close, let alone flipping. Allen Fung isn't running, and neither is Jessica de la Cruz, and they're the only two Republicans who could make this seat competitive.

I'm not a progressive and I don't think a trust fund BernieBro should be in Congress.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Although conventional widsom is that Matos is collapsing, she still does have higher name recognition and started out as a frontrunner. She can't be completely written off -- she's definitely still in this.

The endorsement from AOC and Bernie campaigning with Regunberg will probably hurt him a bit. RI Democrats aren't particulary progressive. This district has a lot of Latino voters who would probably prefer Cano, and a lot of establishment liberals in the East Bay and Newport County areas who are turned off by Bernie.

If Regunberg wins, it'll be a lucky break from the opposition vote splitting just right. And it seems like that is a strong possibility - with Amo and Matos splitting the establishment vote and Matos and Cano splitting the Latino vote (of which turnout will surely be low).

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

https://twitter.com/LogNecb/status/1699032565678588298?t=wdQj9RvlaVSUtndCriiiWg&...

Here's the votes that have been submitted before election day.

I guess it's not too surprising that the wealthier towns have higher turnout (at least from the data from this morning).

I'd expect Amo to be stronger in towns like Jamestown and Barrington compared to other parts of the district.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Has Cano underperformed expectations?

Maybe a little but it's hard to tell what her main constituency was. She seemed like a second choice candidate for a lot of people. If we had RCV she'd probably be in a really good position.

Amo does seem to have stolen some thunder, though.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Ok I paid no attention here, but Amo winning is a pretty huge upset, right? Let alone the fact that he got over 30% of the vote.

Also I know it's a small state, but I'm amazed that they counted everything so quickly. What does Rhode Island do right when it comes to vote counting?

They do the same thing Florida does - they're allowed to start counting early/absentee before the polls close.