Will Gov. Dan McKee win his primary?

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

If McKee pulls it out, it will only be because of his name recognition that he has gained since becoming Governor a year ago -- although it's still not that very high.

There has been a complete lack of polling, aside from internal polling from the Nellie Gorbea campaign (she is the current Secretary of State), which showed Gorbea slightly up over McKee but basically in a statistical tie. One thing that will help Gorbea is that another statewide officeholder, Treasurer Seth Magaziner, dropped out of the gubernatorial race to run for Langevin's seat. Gorbea has been in office since 2015 so her name recognition might be high as well.

At this point, anything could happen. The primary is very late (mid-September) and Rhode Islanders are not really tuning into local politics. I expect that Gorbea and McKee will ramp up the spending around mid-summer but right now both campaigns are essentially dormant, with neither one anywhere to be seen on the airwaves.

Also running: CVS executive Helena Foulkes, who recently started airing TV ads in an attempt to improve her extremely low name recognition, and Matt Brown, a progressive who ran and failed to primary Raimondo in 2018. He might be able to corner some of the progressive vote, but that base isn't enough to win the primary in a conservadem state like Rhode Island.

Overall, it seems that right now it'll be tight between McKee and Gorbea. If McKee wasn't currently governor, he would have no shot. Gorbea seems to be angling for Latino voters and run of the mill Democrats. McKee has tacked a bit to the left since becoming governor but his moderate past positions, such as being pro-school choice, could hurt him. It really depends on the debates and advertising, both of which seem years away at this point still.

Gun to my head, McKee holds on with a plurality and a single-digit margin of victory over Gorbea. Gorbea might also end up regretting not running for that open congressional seat, since unlike Magaziner she actually lives in RI-02.