2021 Canadian general election - Election Day and Results

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

List of seats that changed hands:

Liberal to Conservative: (* = not called by CBC yet)
-Coast of Bays-Central-Notre Dame, NL *
-South Shore-St. Margarets, NS
-Cumberland-Colchester, NS
-Miramichi-Grand Lake, NB
-Peterborough-Kawartha, ON
-Bay of Quinte, ON
-King-Vaughan, ON *

other races that would be Lib to Con flips but the Libs are narrowly leading and have not been called by CBC yet:
-Kitchener-Conestoga, ON
-Niagara Centre, ON
-Sault Ste. Marie, ON


Conservative to Liberal: (* = not called by CBC yet)
-Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill, ON
-Markham-Unionville, ON
-Calgary Skyview, AB
-Edmonton Centre, AB *
-Cloverdale-Langley City, BC
-Steveston-Richmond East, BC
-Richmond Centre, BC *

other races that would be Con to Lib flips but the Cons are narrowly leading and have not been called by CBC yet:
-Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia-Headingley, MB

Liberal to Bloc (* = not called by CBC yet)
-Châteauguay-Lacolle, QC
-Brome-Missisquoi, QC *

other races that would be Lib to BQ flips but the Libs are narrowly leading and have not been called by CBC yet:
-Longueuil-Charles-LeMoyne, QC

NDP to Liberal: (* = not called by CBC yet)
-St. John's East, NL
-Hamilton Mountain, ON *

Conservative to NDP:
-Edmonton Griesbach, AB
-Port Moody-Coquitlam, BC

Liberal to Green:
-Kitchener Centre, ON

Green to Liberal: (* = not called by CBC yet)
-Fredericton, NB *

Green to NDP (* = not called by CBC yet)
-Nanaimo-Ladysmith, BC *

Independent to Liberal (* = not called by CBC yet)
-Vancouver Granville, BC *

Liberal to NDP - none yet, but there are three uncalled races where the Liberals are leading but the NDP could still win:
-Spadina-Fort York, ON
-Davenport, ON
-Parkdale-High Park, ON

Bloc to Conservative - none yet, but one uncalled race where the Bloc is leading but the Conservatives could still win:
-Trois-Rivières, QC

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

To what extent is Charlie Angus's poor perfomance down to his social progressivism, he's a very outspoken social progressive from a union riding with a supringlsy strong PPC perfomance.

I also wonder if his poor performance is because the PPC did fairly well there. After all, the NDP and PPC bases do overlap quite a bit (horseshoe theory populists).

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Has there ever been so few seat changes in Quebec?

We're talking one confirmed, and maybe two, seat changes (Châteauguay-Lacolle flipped Liberal to Bloc, and Brome-Missisquoi could flip the same way, but it hasn't been called yet with the Bloc narrowly leading).

1-2 seat changes seems completely unheard of, at least in recent elections, for such an unpredictable and volatile province that is subject to massive swings.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Brome-Missisquoi flips to Liberals after counting their mail - Liberal candidate leads by 186 votes.

That means only one seat has flipped in Quebec. Crazy. What a boring election.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Although, Freeland is a native of Peace River Country in Alberta. If she pulls an Elizabeth Warren and emphasizes her hardscrabble heartland upbringing, it could help to counter her Laurentian elite image.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

https://twitter.com/withfilesfrom/status/1446842137929306112?s=20

A look at the PPC strength by Election Day poll in southern Manitoba (according to the article, this is preliminary data from Elections Canada, does anyone know if preliminary poll data is available somewhere to download for all ridings?)

Anyways, the PPC did best in Mennonite communities, which are more anti-vax than other surrounding communities.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

https://twitter.com/withfilesfrom/status/1446842137929306112?s=20
A look at the PPC strength by Election Day poll in southern Manitoba (according to the article, this is preliminary data from Elections Canada, does anyone know if preliminary poll data is available somewhere to download for all ridings?)

Anyways, the PPC did best in Mennonite communities, which are more anti-vax than other surrounding communities.

I agree with the broader point on this, that the PPC received a great deal of support from Covidiots, but as a matter of record, Maxime Bernier received 18.2% of the vote in his Beauce riding.

Obviously that is a unique case as he is both the party leader and a longtime former M.P for the riding, so it can't be said with nearly anywhere the same degree of certainty that his votes in Beauce came from Covidiots.

For sure, but in the Mennonite communities the PPC won the polls - some with near 60% of the vote. I would agree that the anti-vax to PPC correlation was probably weakest in Beauce.