Ireland General Discussion

[Tetro Kornbluth]

A Guardian article on the new "Programme for Government" states, "It is understood the Greens have gained concessions on... the reform of the Republic's parliament."  One of the Greens' goals for parliamentary reform was a reduction in the size of the Dáil (the other reform goal mentioned in the article was reforming expenses for parliamentarians).  I'd be interested to hear if a Dáil reduction got into the revised program, the proposed size or range of sizes, how politically feasable such a change really is (I remember someone on this forum saying that due to maximum population per TD requirements in Ireland's constitution (there being minumum pop/TD requirements also), the size of the Dáil would eventually have to increase after each review of constituencies unless Ireland's constitution was amended), when it might go into effect and any complementary changes (like changing the range of Dáil members per constituency, presently 3-5 I know).

Well FF and FG voting for parliamentary reform would be like Turkeys voting for Christmas, to be oh so cliche, but given the circumstances the Greens could pull it off... and if they did I will automatically apologize for everything bad I have said of them in the past two years (well, almost everything). It would though require a referendum - which in the current climate might just be passed (depends alot on the nature of the reform)

Other questions:

1. the amount of seats in the Dail has hardly changed since (iirc) 1981 so I don't know what you are referring to there. Though the amount of seats is far, far too many for a country our size (166).

2. As this reform is mostly focused on reducing the number of TDs the constituencies would so much change as be abolished and go bigger - which would effectively end the use of counties for constituency drawing purposes, especially in low-density regions like the Midlands and West. This I can see being the biggest point of public opposition. Personally though I think it can't come faster.

EDIT: Just looked at the Rte website; I've been out of the loop recently - but though a program has been agreed there is no mention of TD seat reduction though so far they are being awfully coy about it. However Corporation donations to political parties to be banned is a plus.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Good news for Alex White. Otherwise, HA.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Change Places!

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Change Places!

Any suggestions for which cabinet member is the Mad Hatter, the Dormouse, the March Hare, and Alice?

Elementary, my dear Jas... The Mad Hatter is Cowen, The Dormouse is Coughlan, The March Hare is the rest of the cabinet several times over and Alice is the whole country embodied in one girl (and the white rabbit would of course be a property developer)...

Don't even ask who Tweedledum and Tweedledee are...

[Tetro Kornbluth]

This happened without controversy in Ireland of all places? Interesting.

People would think this would be controversial in Ireland of 2010 really know nothing about Ireland (Which isn't to say I think most people approve, the vast majority of people really just don't care.... and never did).

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Besides, it's 2010. Mostwhere else in Western Europe has such legislation already. (googles) Anywhere but Italy. In a sense, the bill's timing confirms stereotypes about Ireland's catholicism more than it contradicts them.

I disagree. The bill's delay has more to do with government laziness/apathy towards the issue than Catholicism imo.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Top (just before I'm off):

Found this interesting blog post on the 'labour surge' in the polls and shows really how the difficult it is for the party to do as well as the polls predict.

http://politicalreform.ie/2010/06/18/where-bloweth-the-gilmore-gale-precedents-from-1992-and-1969/#more-566

[Tetro Kornbluth]

EDIT: It's really impossible to stress enough how bad this result is for Fianna Fáil. If this is how they're polling in Donegal, they're going to get electorally curbstomped nationally.

Indeed. But one must obviously take constituency polls with extreme caution.

Surprising just how strong Doherty appears. Though judging by all accounts of the debates, he's just about the only candidate who is actually coherent.

If O'Neill comes in 4th, would they have to try and resign Enda again - on the eve of a budget and within shouting distance of a general election? *fingers crossed*

No. It´s Labour-FG (in that order) or bust (and I mean that probably literally) at this stage.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

That cartoon is brilliant.

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I take it that the paper will not be endorsing Fianna FAIL in the election?

The current level of gombeenism, incompetence and general gobsh**te-ery is hardly unusual in the context of Irish history and of Fianna Fail governments in particular. What is unprecedented though is the way that is so consistently exposed and to the ridiculous degree it has been exposed over the last two to three years.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

It does not surprise me that SF would take votes off FF. For all their leftist and radical posturing, this SF reminds me of nothing more than FF of the late 20s if FF of the 20s was a viable party in modern Ireland.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

The inevitable finally happened today...

[Tetro Kornbluth]

The inevitable finally happened today...

The government fell?

No. That happened over a month ago really.

In other words, what Jas said.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

The sort of the news which is shocking to hear even though it was an inevitability that it would happen soon. RIP. Didn´t agree with what the man did, but horrible way to die and so young as well.

As for the by-election, I imagine that SF will putting their maximum resources on targeting the seat. FF are hardly in the best shape for a by-election especially in Dublin and no government has won a by-election since the 1980s (1982 iirc) though there has no time since then which has been so favourable to the government parties (In this constituency, probably Labour rather than FG would benefit). I doubt the ULA will run a candidate - they already have Joe Higgins here.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Very Angry today. If I were actually living in the old sod, I would go on a protest march which would be an effective first for me. But I don't, so I can't.

The problem though isn't the EU, it is the Irish constitution (whose article 40.3.3 was written precisely to counter the 'threat' that the EU would legalize abortion).

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I wonder when she said those words whether she meant it in a "There's nothing I can do" sense (as if she was shrugging her shoulders at the same time) or whether it was some kind of ethnic comment about this being 'our' country and she had to adapt to our laws even if it killed her. My suspicion is on the former.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

The problem though isn't the EU, it is the Irish constitution (whose article 40.3.3 was written precisely to counter the 'threat' that the EU would legalize abortion).

Oh, I know. But given than all horrible European treaties passed (even if some needed reruns), I suppose you could do the same thing with abortion.

That would require, per the constitution, a referendum and alas I really don't think that Ireland is ready to vote for a liberal abortion regime yet.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

The problem though isn't the EU, it is the Irish constitution (whose article 40.3.3 was written precisely to counter the 'threat' that the EU would legalize abortion).

Oh, I know. But given than all horrible European treaties passed (even if some needed reruns), I suppose you could do the same thing with abortion.

That would require, per the constitution, a referendum and alas I really don't think that Ireland is ready to vote for a liberal abortion regime yet.

Well, for Europe, they made Irish vote until they got the "right" answer.

Been there 3 times already and nobody really knows what answer the Irish people gave.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

The problem though isn't the EU, it is the Irish constitution (whose article 40.3.3 was written precisely to counter the 'threat' that the EU would legalize abortion).

Oh, I know. But given than all horrible European treaties passed (even if some needed reruns), I suppose you could do the same thing with abortion.

That would require, per the constitution, a referendum and alas I really don't think that Ireland is ready to vote for a liberal abortion regime yet.

Well, for Europe, they made Irish vote until they got the "right" answer.

Been there 3 times already and nobody really knows what answer the Irish people gave.

Europe passed its treaties, it is the thing who mattered for them. They don't care about the opinion of people, they just want a signature on their treaty.

You see, as I said before, there is this thing called the Irish Constitution....

[Tetro Kornbluth]

The problem though isn't the EU, it is the Irish constitution (whose article 40.3.3 was written precisely to counter the 'threat' that the EU would legalize abortion).

Oh, I know. But given than all horrible European treaties passed (even if some needed reruns), I suppose you could do the same thing with abortion.

That would require, per the constitution, a referendum and alas I really don't think that Ireland is ready to vote for a liberal abortion regime yet.

Well, for Europe, they made Irish vote until they got the "right" answer.

Been there 3 times already and nobody really knows what answer the Irish people gave.

Europe passed its treaties, it is the thing who mattered for them. They don't care about the opinion of people, they just want a signature on their treaty.

You see, as I said before, there is this thing called the Irish Constitution....

I know that. I propose forcing them to amend it and make them vote on that until they say yes. It worked for European treaties.

And as I said before, there isn't any chance of that happening. We've already had 3 referendums (actually 5 question) on Abortion since 1983 which have indicated an overwhelming conservative majority (kind of). Abortion isn't going to be legalized 'on demand' in Ireland at time soon, which is unfortunate, but is the truth.

Also considering the sort of bitterness and rancor that previous Abortion campaigns have brought into Irish discourse, no politician even wants to touch the issue. Which is why this tragedy happened.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

The problem though isn't the EU, it is the Irish constitution (whose article 40.3.3 was written precisely to counter the 'threat' that the EU would legalize abortion).

Oh, I know. But given than all horrible European treaties passed (even if some needed reruns), I suppose you could do the same thing with abortion.

That would require, per the constitution, a referendum and alas I really don't think that Ireland is ready to vote for a liberal abortion regime yet.

Well, for Europe, they made Irish vote until they got the "right" answer.

Been there 3 times already and nobody really knows what answer the Irish people gave.

Europe passed its treaties, it is the thing who mattered for them. They don't care about the opinion of people, they just want a signature on their treaty.

You see, as I said before, there is this thing called the Irish Constitution....

I know that. I propose forcing them to amend it and make them vote on that until they say yes. It worked for European treaties.

And as I said before, there isn't any chance of that happening. We've already had 3 referendums (actually 5 question) on Abortion since 1983 which have indicated an overwhelming conservative majority (kind of). Abortion isn't going to be legalized 'on demand' in Ireland at time soon, which is unfortunate, but is the truth.

Also considering the sort of bitterness and rancor that previous Abortion campaigns have brought into Irish discourse, no politician even wants to touch the issue. Which is why this tragedy happened.

Can you give some examples of how bitter abortion debates were in Ireland?

Some Youtube clips of the 1983 Referendum campaign should suffice:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hOnoCOSwzwM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t507IF7XrCY (Interesting to note that one of the two main 'pro-life' speakers here, one, the priest, turned out later to have a secret family and the other would turn insanely right-wing near the end of her life. Monica Barnes was completely right btw).

Also this from the 1983 referendum, Res ipsa loquitur:

[Tetro Kornbluth]

The problem though isn't the EU, it is the Irish constitution (whose article 40.3.3 was written precisely to counter the 'threat' that the EU would legalize abortion).

Oh, I know. But given than all horrible European treaties passed (even if some needed reruns), I suppose you could do the same thing with abortion.

That would require, per the constitution, a referendum and alas I really don't think that Ireland is ready to vote for a liberal abortion regime yet.

Well, for Europe, they made Irish vote until they got the "right" answer.

Been there 3 times already and nobody really knows what answer the Irish people gave.

Europe passed its treaties, it is the thing who mattered for them. They don't care about the opinion of people, they just want a signature on their treaty.

You see, as I said before, there is this thing called the Irish Constitution....

I know that. I propose forcing them to amend it and make them vote on that until they say yes. It worked for European treaties.

And as I said before, there isn't any chance of that happening. We've already had 3 referendums (actually 5 question) on Abortion since 1983 which have indicated an overwhelming conservative majority (kind of). Abortion isn't going to be legalized 'on demand' in Ireland at time soon, which is unfortunate, but is the truth.

Also considering the sort of bitterness and rancor that previous Abortion campaigns have brought into Irish discourse, no politician even wants to touch the issue. Which is why this tragedy happened.

I do think the country's changed enough in the last decade - I can't imagine gay marriage having massive national support in 2002 - that there'd be some hope for a positive result in an abortion referendum. Maybe not to fully liberalise - though that's not on the cards anyway - but I think an easing of the restrictions would have a good chance of passing, and the odd poll that comes out backs me up. I might be too optimistic, though.

I agree 100% with your last point, unfortunately. Politicians are terrified of touching this.

Gay Marriage is a new issue though, hardly on the radar in 2002 (Is this another thing we should be secretly grateful to Karl Rove for?) while Abortion had been an issue in the public arena for at least 20 years by then.

I agree though that a much, much more liberal result can be expected in regards to another referendum. But I doubt actual liberalization is really on the cards. Not even the Dublin 'meeja' is for it and certainly no-one really wants that referendum. It is the issue - well, now along with Europe since the uncovering of Declan Ganley - which brings out the crazies.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I got of bed this morning for this. I demand my sleep and pleasant dreams back.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Actually one thing of note with these results is that if these were to occur at a GE the only possible government would be FG-FF... which would be something.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Actually one thing of note with these results is that if these were to occur at a GE the only possible government would be FG-FF... which would be something.

That would require FG to still be the bigger party; I can't see their self-regard allowing them to be the junior coalition partner to their social inferiors.

True but I think even now FF would have be at least 5 points ahead of FG to be in the race to be the larger party because of Labour transfers and I think if it were the case that FG-FF was the only realistic option (and FG would prefer to coalition with FF than with even more undermeschen of SF) the desire for warm, ministerial chairs would soon overcome all apprehensions that may exist.

Is there a regional breakdown of the poll btw?