Ireland General Discussion

[Tetro Kornbluth]

A few seats (and a bye-election, FFS when are they going to call it) away from a no-confidence vote.

Not that I think the government will fall soon or anything.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

They're simply abandoning FF and not liking the look of then alternatives. Just where this leads...

Regrettably, the answer is probably "largely returning to FF as soon as an election is called with a substantial minority staying home". Though Irish politics is so weird that, maybe, that won't happen.

Congratulations you get A+ in your understanding of Irish Politics.

Of course there probably won't be an election until 2012, so its all immaterial. Also for some weird reason all our major broadloid newspapers all seem to hate Cowen for some reason, while most were (and still are in one particular case) part of the Bertie Ahern cheerleading club.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Any chance the government falls?

No. Not really.
The Government has been weathered and weakened by the recent budget, but they have very definitely survived. Their long-term survival has taken a serious hit and an election at some point in 2009 can't be ruled out, but short of <insert unforeseen event here/>, the Government doesn't appear to be in any immediate danger.

Unless someone talks sanity to John Gormley..

So that's a no then.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Could the Greens do what Labour did and switch coalitions?

No for a coalition to form FG-LAB would not just need the Greens, but also SF and some of the independents. Which is unlikely (and a couple of the independents are essentially in government anyway).

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I went down with a not-too-bad but still annoying case of food poisoning over the past week: due (probably) to some dodgy sausages (I'm okay now, but I've hardly eaten in the past three days and any case, it was probably self-induced poisoning because I'm an idiot) so it is no surprise to me what has been found:

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[Tetro Kornbluth]

Disaster. Complete and utter disaster.
Goodness knows what the long-term implications for the pig industry is.

I'll have to find out more about the possible health consequences before seeing whether it was negligent/immoral not to have released this information sooner.

Yet you have to admit it wasn't particularly surprised. Even if I hadn't poisoned myself the week this came out, I wouldn't have been shocked. I usually eat pork twice a week (If not more).

Furthermore stuff like this always happens when you least want it too, like now. At least this will distract people from the recession story.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Aahh.. I mangled my words there. I meant to say it would distract the meeja from the OMG OMG OMG RECESSION OMG story.

Anyway the major reason I'm surprised is because it is Irish farmers we are talking about. Perhaps I'm being harsh, but they don't have good PR men.

Apparently all the farms where this contaminated feed was used were in the South-East.

What an incredible story of ineptitude. And where the hell are the Greens in all this.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

They must be desperate if the only option they can think of is "WE NEEDZ ANOTHER REFERENDUMB!!1111". I'm already preparing for its epochal fail come next Autumn. Especially if the economy stays the way it is (or rather the media going OMG OMG OMG RECESSION OMG) and Cowen maintains his current stellar popularity.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I know it's because the economy has been destroyed but I'm still going to gloat THIRD PLACE!

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2009/0213/1233867935600.html

Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll:
FF: 22% (down 5%)
FG: 32% (down 2%)
Lab: 24% (up 10%)
SF 9% (up 1%)
Greens: 4% (-)
Inds 9% (down 4%)

Proof that perception is reality.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

While most of the independents will vote with the government that is pretty much the end of the majority.

I expect an election within the year tbh.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Another poll... another schadenfreude meter exploding.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2009/0903/1224253745882.html

(Figures in brackets include undecideds)

FF: 17% (16) -3
FG: 34% (26) -2
LAB: 24% (18) +1
SF: 10% (9) +1
GP: 3% (2) nc
IND: 12% (9) +2
UND: - (20) +1

In Dublin:

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Gazooks. I say.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

So, what are the chances that the Government holds together for the Dáil's full term?

Difficult to say really. The vote on NAMA (ie. the government bailout to frauds, gangsters and gamblers 'rescue package' for the economy) will be over the Autumn as will the Lisbon Treaty referendum and a cut-heavy budget. Also a by-election (in Donegal South West) is due and many in the rank and file of the Green Party are not precisely pleased right now. Yet it is hard to see the government falling due to any of this. Turkeys won't vote for Christmas, will they?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

17%!

?

Putting this in perspective the lowest FF has ever got at an election since 1932 was 39% in 1992. They have been the largest party at every election since 1932 and only once was this even close (in 1982 II). Now they are third - and fourth in Dublin.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

A FG-Lab coalition would now be a grand coalition.

Not necessarily. Even with those percentages in first preferences it would still be quite possible that FF would finish second. For two reasons: 1) The lack of Labour organization west of the River Shannon and in other select parts of the country (like West Cork or most of the Midlands) means that that 24% is mostly an urban vote and 2) Election Strategy. Or the problem of how many candidates to run. In 1992 when Labour got their previous best ever result: 19% they actually ended up with less TDs then they should due to their election strategy. In Dublin South (my constituency) they ended up winning enough votes to elect two TDs but only ran one candidate. This problem may will turn up again (or alternatively Labour could run lots of candidates but then run the problem of vote splitting - though this will probably be an even bigger problem for FF on those polls).

[Tetro Kornbluth]

A FG-Lab coalition would now be a grand coalition.

Not necessarily. Even with those percentages in first preferences it would still be quite possible that FF would finish second. For two reasons: 1) The lack of Labour organization west of the River Shannon and in other select parts of the country (like West Cork or most of the Midlands) means that that 24% is mostly an urban vote and 2) Election Strategy. Or the problem of how many candidates to run. In 1992 when Labour got their previous best ever result: 19% they actually ended up with less TDs then they should due to their election strategy. In Dublin South (my constituency) they ended up winning enough votes to elect two TDs but only ran one candidate. This problem may will turn up again (or alternatively Labour could run lots of candidates but then run the problem of vote splitting - though this will probably be an even bigger problem for FF on those polls).

I think you're too pessimistic about Labour's chances in this scenario. You're quite right obviously that Labour's problem west of the Shannon is very significant - but in 1992 they still got TDs from Sligo-Leitrim and Clare, and weren't far off in Cavan-Monaghan. At 24% and with FF polling worse than swine flu, I think one could reasonably expect an even better return.

I also think that that Labour will have learned the lesson of 1992. I think that it's the quality of the candidates which will be the significant issue not the actual numbers.

I'm not being pessimistic. I'm only saying what might happen - not what I think would happen. Actually if that poll was a result in a General Election then FF might lose alot more (yes, even more) than they should because most of their incumbents would be running against each other for a significantly smaller vote, leading to mass vote splitting (this can have an effect - in 2002 iirc in Dun Laoghaire FG got a quota but ran three candidates and none got elected).

As I'm bored I think I will do a prediction based on that poll.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

A FG-Lab coalition would now be a grand coalition.

Not necessarily. Even with those percentages in first preferences it would still be quite possible that FF would finish second. For two reasons: 1) The lack of Labour organization west of the River Shannon and in other select parts of the country (like West Cork or most of the Midlands) means that that 24% is mostly an urban vote and 2) Election Strategy. Or the problem of how many candidates to run. In 1992 when Labour got their previous best ever result: 19% they actually ended up with less TDs then they should due to their election strategy. In Dublin South (my constituency) they ended up winning enough votes to elect two TDs but only ran one candidate. This problem may will turn up again (or alternatively Labour could run lots of candidates but then run the problem of vote splitting - though this will probably be an even bigger problem for FF on those polls).

I think you're too pessimistic about Labour's chances in this scenario. You're quite right obviously that Labour's problem west of the Shannon is very significant - but in 1992 they still got TDs from Sligo-Leitrim and Clare, and weren't far off in Cavan-Monaghan. At 24% and with FF polling worse than swine flu, I think one could reasonably expect an even better return.

I also think that that Labour will have learned the lesson of 1992. I think that it's the quality of the candidates which will be the significant issue not the actual numbers.

I'm not being pessimistic. I'm only saying what might happen - not what I think would happen. Actually if that poll was a result in a General Election then FF might lose alot more (yes, even more) than they should because most of their incumbents would be running against each other for a significantly smaller vote, leading to mass vote splitting (this can have an effect - in 2002 iirc in Dun Laoghaire FG got a quota but ran three candidates and none got elected).

Agreed. Both the presence of too many candidates and their increased transfer toxicity would almost certainly cost them seats.

Did you see the Tubridy-Cowen interview, btw?

No I didn't. (Me too lazy sophisicated to watch TV see. ). Anything interesting?

Anyway Dublin - According to poll: Labour 25% FG 24% SF 12% FF 11%. Now anyone who knows anything recognizes that even in Sodom-on-the-Liffey local issues/gombeemism still have some influence and I reckon that there is some form of "Shy Tory" syndrome going on with FF voters denying that they will vote for FF. In saying that, 11% is actually worse than Fine Gael's performance in the Capital in 2002, where they won only three seats, the worst ever. So then:

Dublin South: Currently: 3FG 1FF 1GP. Kitt (FF) is retiring.
                      Prediction: 3FG 1LAB 1FF (Or plausibly, 3FG 2LAB or 2FG 2LAB 1FF)
Vote splitting between two candidates cost Labour a seat here last time but just about over a quota. With their vote doubling - and Dublin South is the sort of constituency imo where the anti-government feeling is likeliest to magnified come election day - Labour could gain two, but vote management may let them down. Fianna Fail don't precisely have a great bench here with no incumbents; but it seems impausible that they would have no seats in a 5 seater (or is it?). Ryan is Gone. Lee & Mitchell (Both FG) are safe. Shatter (FG) may be in danger but he's been around a long time. The drawing of Foxrock and Cabinteely into the constituency - which only makes it even more affulent and upper middle class than before is likely to strongly benefit FG. Perhaps even Labour.

Dun Laoghaire: Currently: 2FF 1FG 1LAB 1GP. It is losing a seat due to the boundary changes.
                         Prediction: 1FG 2LAB 1People Before Profit (aka Socialist Workers Party - a Trot group)
Dun Laoghaire tends to magnify swings and has always had a low FF vote. Even now. The local election has shown that Richard Boyd Barrett (PBP) despite being a slightly drippy student trot has developed a base among the smoked salmon socialists of Monkstown, Dun Laoghaire and down the Coast. Eamonn Gilmore (LAB) is now Labour leader and on 24% a second seat seems to be quite likely, especially given that a) he is only Dublin based TD leading a major party and b) he is clearly the most popular leader right now. FG have one seat though their incumbent Barrett (FG) is retiring. Andrews (FF) and Cuffe (GP) are gone. Hannafin (FF) is probably gone too (*cue uproarious celebrations*) - Fianna Fail had a genuinely awful local elections here, worse than many other places even.

Dublin South East: Currently: 1FF 1FG 1LAB 1GP
                              Prediction: 2FG 2LAB

The home of the Civil Service, the Business and Media elite, the fashionable shopping districts, what remains of the old Protestant ascendancy - and alot of urban blight in the forgotten inner suburbs has always been a bad place for Fianna Fail relative to the rest of the country. And with their vote collapsing they will probably finish way back in the field. The Green Party are doing terribly right now and their leader Gormley (GP) is probably on his way too. A major question would be what happens to those conservative McDowell voters (an ex-PD minister of Justice and known right-winger)? Probably back to their natural vote in Fine Gael; even rumours are spreading that McDowell himself will run under that banner at the next election. Creighton (FG) is safe. Quinn (Lab) is safe. For an actual prediction of any accuracy one would have to know the candidates (personal vote matters alot here - more so even than other countries imo). But 2FG and 2Lab is the best bet for now - though Sinn Fein might have a chance. Need to run a good candidate and campaign strongly in the Ringsend-Irishtown area (the scene of alot of the aforementioned urban blight).

Dublin South West: Currently: 2FF 1FG 1LAB
                               Prediction: 2FG 1LAB 1SF

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Dublin Mid West: Currently: 1FF 1LAB 1PD 1GP
                            Prediction: 2FG 1LAB 1SF

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Dublin South Central: Currently: 2FF 1FG 1LAB 1SF
                                  Prediction: 1FG 2LAB 1SF 1PBP (Bit of a risky one this)

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Dublin West: Currently: 1FF 1FG 1LAB. Gaining a seat due to boundary changes.
                      Prediction: 1FF 1FG 1LAB 1SOC.

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Dublin North West: Currently: 2FF 1LAB
                              Prediction: 1FG 1LAB 1SF

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Dublin North Central: Currently: 1FF 1FG 1IND
                                  Prediction: 1FF 1FG 1LAB

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Dublin Central: Currently: 2FF 1LAB 1IND
                        Prediction: 1FF 1FG 1LAB 1IND

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Dublin North East: Currently: 1FF 1FG 1LAB
                            Prediction: 1FG 1LAB 1SF

Dublin North: Currently: 2FF 1FG 1GP
                      Prediction: 1FF 1FG 1LAB 1SOC (This one is particularly difficult, if the Greens hold on to any, it will be this one).

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Yes, I know I only wrote analysis for the three Dublin South East constituencies, so sue me (I'll get around to it later).

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Lenister:

Kildare North: Currently: 2FF 1FG 1LAB
                      Prediction: 2FG 1LAB 1IND (Catherine Murphy again)

Kildare South: Currently: 2FF 1LAB
                       Prediction: 1FF 1FG 1LAB

Meath West: Currently: 2FF 1FG
                      Prediction: 1FF 2FG

Meath East: Currently: 2FF 1FG
                     Prediction: 1FF 1FG 1LAB

Louth: Currently: 2FF 1FG 1SF (Gaining a seat at the next election)
           Prediction: 1FF 2FG 1LAB 1SF

Longford-Westmeath: Currently: 2FF 1FG 1LAB
                                   Prediction: 1FF 2FG 1LAB

Laois-Offaly: Currently: 3FF 2FG
                    Prediction: 2FF 3FG (This is very hard, it surely can't stay status quo but the other options don't see particularly likely. Though if we went on the locals results than status quo is possible albeit with 2 Offaly based FFers as opposed to 2 Laois based FFers. Labour? Surely Not. SF? More likely.)

Carlow-Kilkenny: Currently: 3FF 1FG 1GP
                           Prediction: 1FF 2FG 1LAB 1IND-FF (McGuinness)

Wicklow: Currently: 1FF 2FG 1LAB 1IND-FF
               Prediction: 2FG 2LAB 1IND-FF

Wexford: Currently: 2FF 2FG 1LAB
               Prediction: 1FF 3FG 1LAB

The problem is in alot of these constituencies is that it is very hard to see who will step into the FF vacuum.

Munster:
Waterford: Currently: 2FF 1FG 1LAB
                  Prediction: 2FG 1LAB 1SF (If my contacts are to be believed, a hard left protest candidate is also plausible.)

Cork East: Currently: 2FF 1FG 1LAB
                  Prediction: 2FG 2LAB (at a stab)

Cork North West: Currently: 2FF 1FG
                           Prediction: 1FF 2FG

Cork South West: Currently: 1FF 2FG
                             Prediction: 1FF 2FG
If the tide really goes out here that replace that FF with Labour.

Cork South Central: Currently: 2FF 2FG 1LAB
                                Prediction: 1FF 3FG 1LAB
A hard left protest candidate again is possible. SF perhaps - Or even PBP?

Cork North Central: Currently: 2FF 1FG 1LAB
                                Prediction: 1FF 1FG 1LAB 1SF

Kerry South: Currently: 1FF 1FG 1IND(FF). O'Donoghue (FF) is safe as Ceann Comhairle (speaker) and is so-re-elected.
                     Prediction: 1FF 1FG 1LAB

Kerry North-Limerick West: Currently (as Kerry North): 1FF 1FG 1SF
                                           Prediction: 1FG 1LAB 1SF

Limerick: Currently (as Limerick West): 2FF 1FG
               Prediction: 1FF 2FG

City of Limerick: Currently (as Limerick East): 2FF 2FG 1LAB. Is losing a seat in the boundary changes.
                         Prediction: 1FF 2FG 1LAB.

Clare: Currently: 2FF 2FG
           Prediction: 1FF 3FG. This is yet another "God, I hope Labour run a decent candidate prospect". There is a slight left-wing vote here.

Tipperary North: Currently: 1FF 1FG 1IND(FG)
                           Prediction: 1FG 1LAB 1IND(FG)

Tipperary South: Currently: 2FF 1FG
                           Prediction: 1FF 1FG 1LAB (or Seamus Healy as an independant again; prospect of a left-wing protest again.)

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Connacht-Ulster:

Cavan-Monaghan: Currently: 3FF 1FG 1SF
                              Prediction: 2FF 2FG 1SF (Jas, do you think 1FF 2FG 2SF is possible?)

Donegal South West: Currently: 2FF 1FG
                                   Prediction: 1FF 1FG 1SF

Donegal North East: Currently: 2FF 1FG
                                 Prediction: 1FF 1FG 1SF

Sligo-N. Leitrim: Currently: 2FF 1FG
                          Prediction: 2FG 1IND "Hospital Candidate" (This always happens. Actually I suspect alot of FF gene pool will get elected as Independents as "Hospitals/anti-cuts candidates" than I have predicted. Sligo seems especially obvious. SF is a prospect.)

Roscommon-S. Leitrim: Currently: 1FF 2FG
                                     Prediction: 1FF 2FG. Though Independent John Kelly (who got 9.85% last time but has a solid local base in Castlerea) could do something. Possibly another "hospital candidate".

Mayo: Currently: 2FF 3FG
          Prediction: 2FF 3FG. Again hard to see an alternative to the Status Quo despite the awful poll numbers; unless SF make really huge gains.

Galway East: Currently: 2FF 2FG
                      Prediction: 1FF 3FG

Galway West: Currently: 2FF 1FG 1LAB 1PD
                       Prediction: 1FF 2FG 1LAB 1IND(PD)

Local ex-PDs doing really well. Must be fears over lower property prices.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

You only have three in Dun Laoghaire and have left out the counties beginning with "W" but other than that looks alright.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

You only have three in Dun Laoghaire

Special Jas redistricting

and have left out the counties beginning with "W" but other than that looks alright.

I've also decided the country would be better off without these counties.

No, I just decided to post the unfinished table as I had reason to fear that the post was in jeopardy.

Anyway, I found it actually very difficult to make the prediction generally given the unprecedented FF and Lab numbers. Looking at it now, it still looks too generous to FF and not generous enough to Lab.

Yeah I know. Especially given transfers. The problem is in places like Sligo-N.Leitrim or Cork North West FG have 2 seats but no other parties exist except the civil war ones and FG surely can't win all 3?

Actually thinking about I expect alot of FF gene pool to seep away and run as independents. If FF do genuinely that badly we will be left in a 2002 style situation with lots of independents whose entire function is make sure that the cuts - wherever they are - are in other places and not in the village which gave them the quota to protect their hospital/school/secret stash of gold/whatever. If somehow FG-LAB don't make a majority and they just over 50% and perhaps transfers won't be so friendly as in 2007 when they ran as the Alternative government (cf. compare 1969 and 1973 - FG/LAB got more votes in the former than the latter but lost in 1969 and won in 1973 due to transfers) then the country will finally slip towards ungovernable banana republic status [/cynical Dubliner].

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Yet you kept Longford* I question your judgement.

* - Of course Longford does not exist, anyone who says otherwise is part of THEM.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I have a question: Is there much of a libertarian movement in Ireland?

No. Don't be silly. The PDs can't be seen as libertarian either - they introduced the minimum wage for a start. They are really more of a right-wing liberal party. Libertarianism would do even worse than Trotskyism here; I can't think of any one natural constituency for it (Except Rich Nerds under the age of 30, perhaps?).

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Is Labour a natural coalition parter with Fine Gael nowadays?

An old almanac I have (2000) defines Labour as moderate left-of-centre; Fine Gael as moderate centre-left and Fianna Fail as moderate centre-right. Is that still the case?

No. Really Left-Right don't work very well for Ireland as Irish politics works on a culture of clientalism rather than political programs or ideals as in most European countries, which helps to explain why the economy seems to collapse every 20-25 years or so. Labour are certainly to the left of FF-FG but that is not saying much and are generally more conservative than they were in the 60s and 70s - alot of progressive legislation especially on "social issues" has been due in part to Labour governments (though obviously cultural change is more important in a general sense) these issues though are irrelevant electorally. But may explain in part the  paradox that they have on average in national elections the second the richest support base of all the parties, behind the Greens (as of 2002). FG are a more 'natural' conservative party to FF due to their traditional support base (small town bourgeoise + large landowners) but need Labour for government. FF is just a catch-all party whose ideology is Gombeenism. But this is true of all political parties in part.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

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No. That was some drunk guy at a pub who I think Lewis quoted.

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Won't disagree with that. Just that Labour's position in Irish society is rather strange. Worth noting that Labour's support base is in main places connected to public sector employment (as opposed to manufacturing - what little there is of it - and industry). Despite this I belief most unions, especially the main ones, have been quite content with FF even with the PDs. This though is changing. Labour's voting base at a local level is much more working class in the conventional-British sense though (or rather it wins those votes locally than it doesn't win nationally - this though is a recent phenomena). More than half of Labour TDs are based in Dublin. Outside of Galway City, the party doesn't exist west of the Shannon and other parts of outer bogland (West Cork, The Midlands with the curious exception of Westmeath).

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I have a question: Is there much of a libertarian movement in Ireland?

No. Don't be silly. The PDs can't be seen as libertarian either - they introduced the minimum wage for a start. They are really more of a right-wing liberal party. Libertarianism would do even worse than Trotskyism here; I can't think of any one natural constituency for it (Except Rich Nerds under the age of 30, perhaps?).

Trotskyism does pretty well in Dublin, doesn't it? Or is that just the electoral system at work?

It's doing better. The Socialist Party used to have a seat in the Dail but lost it in the FF vs FG-LAB contest of 2007. But their TD, Joe Higgins, recently got elected (with the help of the vote of yours truly) to the European Parliament. The SP are doing better at a local level especially in Fingal (North County Dublin) where the Left (incl. Labour) have over 50% of the council seats. Very unusual in Ireland. However the SP won't share power with a "capitalist" party like Labour so it's moot. At the next election the SP will certainly get Joe Higgins' seat back at Dublin West (causing him resign as an MEP) due to redistricting. Another seat is possible in Dublin North; but people have said that for the past two elections. Unlikely to see SP gains anywhere else.

The other Trotskyite group - or rather the parliamentary wing of the anti-everything brigade - The People Before Profit Alliance (PBP, otherwise known as the Socialist Workers Party) did really well at the last local elections, and looks almost certain to pick up a Dail seat in Dun Laoghaire at the next election. This is slightly strange because the consistency of Dun Laoghaire has very few 'workers' in it - but smoked salmon socialists abound, though Richard Body Barrett, the person in question, does seem to be a very good community worker. Even if his solutions to problems seem to be taken out of the drunk irasible leftie student handbook. More surprisingly PBP are also doing well in Dublin South Central, where there are certainly lots of workers - albeit from my experience more interested in the horses than in Marx or right on-ery - local elections were very good for them. Another gain is possible.

So that's 4 possible gains for Trots at the next election in Dublin (and possibly one other in Waterford, if my contacts are right). Not that impressive out of a potential 47. But in saying that that is 4 more than Communist Parties in Ireland are used to. Even in Stalinism's heyday the Communist Party of Ireland didn't bother to run candidates in Irish elections. Communism has never a force of any revelance in Irish history - though the IRA have flirted with it in the past (but that was really an anti-British Thing. Want to read something LOLworthy type in "Sean Russell" into wikipedia).

[Tetro Kornbluth]

In the news. Tax. Tax. And more Tax.

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Apart from wondering how "low-income" will be defined - most of these aren't actually bad measures. Or wouldn't be if the rates themselves weren't going to be so high.