Redistricting...Ireland?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Very interesting thread I've been reading over here whenever I have the time spare and able to use the internets.

I'll write a long post when I get back on the 30th - I already have plently of ideas.

But I could see South Dublin being a real three-way battleground tbh.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I have Dublin with 18 seats; Meath with 2 and a bit which will put into Louth. Kildare with 3. Waterford and Clare are major problems though.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I've been using the formula that 1 HoC seat = 2 and a half or 3 Dail Seats. A Dail seat is roughly per 20,000. Ireland would still be over-represented like Scotland and Wales even with Home Rule.

I'll post more when I get back from the UK (I'm now Cumbria.. Yay! And I'm still on the internets some times as I need to check up on accomodation arrangements on Uni and e-mails from home) but I suspect that in this alternative history Ireland has two nationalist parties - One a descendant from the IPP (who would be allied with Liberals\Lib Dems) and another more radical, populist and Catholic one which would come into fruition during the great depression. Apart from these two, the tories would take the Unionist seats and do well in South Dublin. Labour would struggle especially outside Dublin and Cork - quite similiar to the problems of the NDP in Quebec actually...

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I was in Keswick when I first posted that, now Carlisle. Glasgah tomorrow.

Under this scenario I suppose the Easter Rising would have to not happen somehow and thus Sinn Fein would be yet another forgetten nationalist party which would disband upon the death of it's relatively obscure leader Arthur Griffith in 1922. Or perhaps he would be replaced by the similiarly obscure William T. Cosgrave.. it wouldn't matter anyway, SF never winning anything outside Dublin Corporation seats and the name "Sinn Fein" would just fade away.

In my scenario btw, I have the politics of both north and south remaining somewhat together. Even though I'm imagining two seperate parliaments (as put under the Goverment of Ireland Act (1920)).

[Tetro Kornbluth]

The local Conservative club is outside my hostel as a matter of fact, it seems to be sponsored by some bitter or others (are all political party clubs in the UK sponspored by Alcohol.. It was like that in Lincoln too iirc.)

Carlisle is nice but dead after six o'clock. The rest of Cumbria.. not a fan now, the English tourist board does a very good show of making it into a chocolate-boxy view of England. And too many BLOODY TOURISTS!!11.. (And I'm not one for scenery either... what's so strange about Keswick politics btw?)

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Okay then, I imagine in this scenario that there are two nationalist parties as I already said.. I'll call the populist Catholic-nationalist one Clann na nGael (The Irish family) because that's the first thing which came into my head. The other is the Automonist but pro-Union Irish Parliamentary party fairly economically conservative though with a growing social liberal wing. The entire modern Republic is pretty much divided by these two.. though CnaG do not take up their seats at Westminster. The labour party have some enclaves of support in Dublin and South Lenister - but doesn't even bother running candidates in the West. Until 1997 labour would not have a seat in the entire country since at least 1979 (if not the 1950s) outside of maybe one or two in Dublin. In the north labour tend to do best in the more non-sectarian areas.. where the modern Alliance and SDLP vote is concentrated (Btw Al, any maps of ex-NILP support any chance it would help).
The Tories would be very strong in the north taking the whole unionist vote.. though more fundamentalist protestants like a noteworthy minister from North Antrim Dr I. Paisley occasionally stir problems.. especially when there is no majority in Westminster and the goverment is dependant on Irish votes. In the south, the Tories would pretty non-existant and would have no chance of winning seats outside of maybe one or two seats in South Dublin and then only in good years (Could see MacMillian doing well in Ireland for some reason... but the British Aristo factor would be outputting)

I'll start with Ulster and that is by far the easiest to do (here I'm imagining northern and southern politics don't branch off too much) and most has already been divided anyway..

[Tetro Kornbluth]

ULSTER

North Antrim:
Includes: Current UK constituency of North Antrim
Analysis: In this scenario North Antrim would quite possibly be the strongest Tory seat in the whole of the United Kingdom (again, I'm imagining no Ultra-Protestant breakaway). Strong socially conservative views pre-dominate. Clann na Gael or Labour would probably come a very distant second.

Winner of 2005 General Election: Sammy Wilson (Conservative)

East Antrim:
Includes: Current UK constituency of East Antrim
Analysis: Again another stronghold for the conservatives though not as overwhelmingly as North Antrim given that it's less Agrarian and with slightly more catholics. The labour party might have some presence here around the Larne area. Neither nationalist party does particulary well here.

Winner of 2005 General Election: Roy Beggs (Conservative)

South Antrim:
Includes: Current UK constituency of South Antrim
Analysis: Again like the rest of Rural Antrim this is a Conservative-Unionist stronghold. Though with some Nationalist presence around the Belfast Suburbia which would vote for the IPP over CnaG. Another uncompetitive constituency.

Winner of 2005 General Election: David Burnside (Conservative)

West Belfast:
Includes: Current UK constituency of West Belfast.
Analysis: The reserve of Rural Antrim this would go heavily for my made-up party, Clan Na nGael with it's mix of Catholic working class Populism and Irish nationalism it wouldn't be too different from the modern Sinn Fein party, and this is one fit that description to the tee, better Gerry Adams home base and all. Labour, the IPP and the Tories fight for the spoils.

Winner of 2005 General Election: Alex Maskey (Clann na nGael)

East Belfast:
Includes: Current UK constituency of East Belfast
Analysis: An unusual constituency in that it would be fairly progressive (in areas; it's also one of the strongest for the Alliance Party in RL) but also strongly Unionist and thus may see a strong vote for the Labour Party, though whether it would be enough to take the seat is unlikely. The catholic community here tends to be more middle class and thus would vote for the IPP. The question here is whether dockworkers and labourers which once made up a good portion of this constituency would stick with the more pro-unionist option in the tories (and make it a safe tory seat) or follow the mainland and go with their more natural home in the Labour party, which would take a more moderate and autonomist view on Irish issues. Sadly as this is the north, I'll go with the former option.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Peter Robinson (Conservative)

North Belfast:
Includes: Current UK constituency of North Belfast
Analysis: Another strange one where the normal rules of UK politics would not apply, but much less predictable than East Belfast due to a substaniable Catholic vote, which has mainly moved in from other areas in recent times (this was once as Ultra-Unionist as the rest of Antrim). Also until recently the DUP did not even bother to run candidates here (but now hold the seat). Again things might depend on whether Labour can swing enough protestant votes around in this (mainly) working class constituency. They might just have been able to do it in 1997 and 2001 depending on how big Irish issues were in the campaign. 2005 is doubtful on the other hand. Catholics here would lean CnaG rather than IPP, this being one of the more sectarian areas of Northern Ireland

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Cecil Walker (Conservative)

South Belfast:
Includes: Current UK constituency of South Belfast
Analysis: This is a mainly middle class constituency (I stress mainly) and is also the location of Queens University. Until 2005 it was held by the Ulster Unionists when the SDLP took it with less than 33% of the vote due to the Unionist split, but still would have a strong Protestant majority. Ironically I could see New Labour (at least) doing quite well especially as I would see Tony Blair as having a moderate position on Irish issues which would appeal here - Until 2005 the DUP never ran any candidates, this being a fairly liberal-conservative area. In this history it goes labour in 1997 in a three way race with the Conservatives and the IPP. Local politics tends though to be more tory dominated.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: David Ervine (Labour) Upon whose death in 2007 is succeeded by Dawn Purvis (Labour) in a bye-election victory with less than 35% of the vote.

North Down:
Includes: Current UK constituency of North Down
Analysis: Similiar to rural Antrim, though with some Belfast suburbia. The main town here - Bangor - would be a Labour stronghold if in Britain but unlikely to be so here. This is currently the only seat held by the Ulster Unionist Party and is very Unionist leaning. For this reason, we have to stick with the tories.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Sylvia Hermon (Conservative)

Lagan Valley:
Includes: Current UK constituency of Lagan Valley
Analysis: See any other Rural Ulster seat so far (Though this contains Lisburn). Strongly Tory, unlikely to have a strong Labour vote and lacking in neccesary Nationalists for either CnaG or the IPP.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Jeffrey Robinson (Conservative)

Strangford:
Includes: Current UK constituency of Strangford
Analysis: Strong Unionist with an Independant streak which might do well for Labour in places like Ards, unfortunetly again it seems to be another Tory safehold.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: David McNarry (Conservative)

South Down:
Includes: Current UK constituency of South Down
Analysis: On the border with the current Republic with a strong Nationalist base - I imagine here Labour would sop up the Unionist vote (only about 25%) in many places instead of the Conservatives especially in 1997 and 2001, but may have reverted somewhat in 2005, this was the seat which once elected Enoch Powell after all - even though most of the ultra-unionist areas are now in Strangford. As a nationalist enclave it is more moderate and semi-rural and would probably go for the IPP perhaps due to the Euro issue (here the IPP would strongly pro-euro, the CnaG more divided - I doubt the EU would have had such an effect on the Irish economy as in RL - but of course that would mean different demographics, but let's ignore that anomaly.)

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Eddie McGrady (Irish Parliamentary Party)

------End of Ulster Part I------
So far: Tory: 8, IPP: 1, Lab: 1, CnaG: 1

[Tetro Kornbluth]

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Ehh.. Wow.

Btw Al what do you think of my work so far, as generally you're the one I go to with UK demographics\facts\predictions. Just curious.

I'll finish Ulster tomorrow, there's a bit of a problem with Cavan though.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

ULSTER part II

Upper Bann:
Constituency contains Portadown, Drumcree and other Sectarian flashpoints. Making this an unlikely Labour constituency. The divisions here would be between CnaG and the Tory-Unionists, with the latter in ascendancy.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: David Trimble (Conservative)

Newry and Armagh:
Consituency contains South Armagh, Newry and many nationalist strongholds with a declining Protestant vote. Used to be very strong for the SDLP but is now very much a Sinn Fein constituency, so alot would depend on 'events' from 1922 onwards to see whether it votes IPP or CnaG. Impossible to say otherwise.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Conor Murphy (Clann na nGael)

Fermanagh and South Tyrone:
Constituency contains County Fermanagh and Dungannon region of South Tyrone, this is the constituency where Bobby Sands was famously elected in 1981 while he was on hunger strike. But reverted back to the Ulster Unionists until 2001. Very, very split constituency and it's hard to see moderation winning out here. Events would be important but I imagine that here the anti-Tory feeling in the mainland would swing just enough votes to CnaG (it would also in other places o\c but not enough to lose the seat) for the nationalists to gain.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Gerry McHugh (Clann na nGael)

Mid Ulster:
Constituency contains Cookstown, East Tyrone and South Co. Derry. Tends to have a strong populist rural vote (it's currently Martin McGuinness's seat) which just leans toward the nationalists but again 'events' would the key here. Difficult constituency to judge and labour may just have such strength here. IPP would do well here too, this once being a strong location of the old Nationalist party. Just a shot in the dark guess here.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Francie Molloy (Clann na nGael)

West Tyrone:
Constituency contains Omagh, Strabane, West Co. Tyrone. Nationalist leaning constituency but with a strong independant streak which almost saw it elect a cross-community independent in 2005 running as a "hospital" candidate showing that perhaps bread and butter issues can trump in some areas of the north. The nationalist lean and the lack of a true Labour natural support base means that I have this going IPP.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Brid Rogers (Irish Parliamentary Party)

East Derry:
Constituency contains most of Co.Derry save the city and the tiny region contained in Mid-Ulster, includes the towns of Coleraine and Limavady. Strong Unionist bent - until recently a UUP stronghold suggesting that it would be a fairly safe Tory seat.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: David McClarty (Conservative)

Foyle:
Constituency contains the City of Derry and the surrounding area. Nationalist stronghold where the UUP have always done badly, gaining just 2.4% of the vote last time around (less than the Socialist enviormentalist party) currently an SDLP stronghold whose votes in this timeline would transfer somewhat being the IPP and labour. With most of SF's going to CnaG. Tends to like incumbents but in an open year is a three way battle between these parties.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Mark Durcan (Labour)

So in the North I've got:
Tories 10 CnaG 4 Labour 2 IPP 2

REPUBLICAN ULSTER
Monaghan-East Cavan:
Constituency contains Co. Monaghan, and the Eastern Cavan the line drawn between Cootehill and Ballyjamesduff which towns it includes, anywhere east of that line is in this constituency plus the region around Belturbet, north of the river.  Like alot of the border counties it has a traditionally strong nationalist vote, it's Sinn Fein's really only safe seat in the republic (vote based in Monaghan mostly) and still has a split where many of the county's protestants (not insubstianable, but not enough to get near victory here) vote for Fine Gael. The Labour party would pretty much not exist here and the Tories would be a pretty weak third in the battle between CnaG and IPP, which would lean with the Former.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Caoimhghin O Caolain (Clann na nGael)

Donegal North East:
Constituency contains modern Dail constituency of Donegal North East, Letterkenny, the Inishowen Pennisula, the Islands, most of the Donegal Gaeltacht and Milford. Electorate: 58,208. Donegal going to slightly overrepresented here, but this is the easiest (and laziest) way. Again a border region with a strong protestant minority though it's hard to tell whether or not the Protestants in the South would stay with the tories or not (many of them, especially outside South Dublin, had already left by 1880 after all.) Strong Irish speaking population (which often equates with Voting FF or SF) and Odd place in general, is more nationalist than Donegal South West, plus the Blaney family's success shows the level of pro-nationalist feeling here. Though in parts Pro-EU sentiment would probably drive a resurgence in IPP. Labour vote minimal (as it is in the Republic, any left-wing vote goes with SF)

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Niall Blaney (Clann na nGael)

Donegal South West:
Contains modern Dail constituency of Donegal South West. Electorate: 54,789 Similiar to Donegal North East but with a stronger Union and Labour votes (around the Killybegs area I imagine) also with slightly less Irish speakers - the area generally is split between Conservatives and Populists. But like with Donegal North East has a very strong Farmers' lobby and powerful agrarian interests, which actually may make this area somewhat like in certain respects, the South West of England. Would most certainly be a IPP-CnaG swing constituency. Answer is just a guess.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Dinny McGinley (Irish Parliamentary Party)

Ulster Overall (save West Cavan):
Conservatives 10
Clann na nGael 6
Irish Parliamentary Party 3
Labour 2

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Hey, what happened to earlier post. (Al quoted it, but it's vanished...?)

Of course the issue here is how Isolated Irish politics would become from the rest of the United Kingdom and how much local issues predominated, especially independence. But there are so many "what ifs" here. The Irish trade union movement in the south for example never really recovered from 1913 (and the later lose of Connolly too..) but if it remained the UK instead of the series of extremely conservative goverments we had post-independence.. The working class of Dublin after 1927 have always tended to vote for Fianna Fail, unless they are affiliated to a Union. Perhaps the only real Labour strongholds in the South would be the City of Limerick and Cobh (and Possibly Waterford Town too)

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It's Possible but unlikely, perhaps with McMillian and Heath as Tory leaders but not certainly not Thatcher.. I'd reckon the IPP would be very europhilic and would probably lean towards the Liberals (still) than either Labour or the conservatives. What happens in the 1980s with the SDP is difficult to say (Is there even an SDP in this scenario?) but I can't see Thatcher selling well anywhere in Ireland at all, except for mayble some enclaves in South East Dublin... but in the West her Prime Ministership would almost certainly bring back strong calls for independance.

Though in some areas no doubt the Tories and the IPP would be in alliance, especially in "The outer Pale" (Kildare, Meath, Wicklow...)

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Another Two Constituencies - which happens to Split Provinces:

Upper Shannonside:
Constituency Includes all of Cavan (excluding the areas included in Monaghan-East Cavan), Co. Leitrim and North Co. Longford - everywhere north of Longford Town, Abbeylara, Granard and Edgesworthtown. One of the poorest and easily most Rural Irish constituencies - in a single member constituency this would be a hotbed for populism and dislike of the Elites of Dublin and London. General Clann na nGael tilt with IPP only winning in good years. British parties nowhere to be seen. Strong tendency towards incumbents

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Brendan Smith (Clann na nGael)

Longford & Roscommon:
Constituency Includes all of South Co. Longford including Longford Town and the Entire of Co. Roscommon. Fairly similiar to Upper Shannonside except crucially there would be more medium sized (by Irish standards) towns here which would expect lean IPP (Places like Roscommon Town and Boyle certainly would imo - these are both sufficiently middle class areas, actually Roscommon generally has a middle-class Townie and Rural backwater divide, though there is more "big Farmers" than in Leitrim..). Despite it's reputation as the Most Boring county in Ireland this actually a rather interesting politically and is known for mood swings, Roscommon never having returned all of it's sitting TDs in a single election. For this I put it as a very good "Irish marginal" between both Native parties. Again as with the rest of the West of the Shannon, neither British party is up to much.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Dennis Naughton (Irish Parliamentary Party)

So far:
Conservatives 10
CnaG 7
IPP 4
Labour 2

[Tetro Kornbluth]

LENISTER - Part I (The easy bit):

Westmeath:
Consituency Includes all of County Westmeath. Conservative towns like Athlone and Mullingar predominate this consituency, It's actually very hard to judge who exactly they would vote for, in Irish elections like alot of Ireland they tend to get person over party. (Strangely it was one of the strongest seats for Labour in the last election - but alot of that vote would have been personal for Willie Penrose.) But the Irish system of Patronage coupled with PR-STV suits incumbents. It isn't as backwater as the Shannon west region and isn't central enough to Dublin really to be truly Commuter belt.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Mary O' Rourke (Clann na nGael)

Laois:
Consituency Includes all of County Laois. County has gone under rapid changes with the expansion of the lower- Middle Class Dublin commuter belt especially around Portlaoise. Infrastructure is a major issue here and may suit parties who desire "bigger goverment" but overall is a fairly Conservative-Populist place which almost never votes outside FF-FG in Irish Elections. (And constantly elected this guy as a TD.) Tough Call but if the Lower-Middle class stick with Conservative Populism here than it leans Clan. Could see a Decent Tory vote though, with the right candidate

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Charlie Flanagan (Clann na nGael)

Offaly:
Constituency Includes all of County Offaly. A County in two parts, Towns like Edenderry and Tullamore are growing fast in the commuter belt and are pretty much the commerical hub of the county. While the west is pretty much Fen county with decent sized towns like Birr and Banagher with a strong general Agrarian\Big Farmers lobby\Middle class lean. If this was a British constituency it would be strongly Tory and in Ireland rarely votes other than FF-FG (it's been pared with Laois for most of it's Dail history..) Where The Farmers lobby would lean IPP due mainly to Trade issues and the European union.. Would be close between both Irish parties, Labour wouldn't stand a chance but the Tories could be a wild card here.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Olwyn Enright (Irish Parliamentary Party)

So far:
Tories 10
CnaG 9
IPP 5
Labour 2

[Tetro Kornbluth]

LENISTER - Part II (North Lenister - The Pale and enviorns)

North Louth:
Constituency includes Carlingford, Dundalk, Louth Town, Mansfieldtown and Ardee. The border of the constituency defined by the borders of county louth and a line just south of Ardee and north of Dunleer. Area well known for being a hotbed of Nationalist sentiment and politics and currently has a Sinn Fein TD. Dundalk (which makes up the majority of the constituency population), while a boom town, is still rather working class in orientation is often defined by the border. The expansion of the commuter belt is another demographic factor, though is more an issue further south. Generally votes for Populist-type candidates in Irish elections with reputation as good constituency workers. Leans CnaG.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Arthur Morgan (Clann na nGael)

Boyne Estuary:
Constituency Includes Dunleer, Termofeckin, Drogheda in South County Louth, The Coastal bit of East County Meath aswell as Slane, Dunleek and Skreen, stretching out to include some of the Suburbs of Navan and Ashbourne where there has been a population explosion recently. A constituency three parts, the more middle class and settled Drogheda, also a boom town but without the nationalist history of Dundalk. The Commuter belt towns which dotting all over Meath at a furious rate referred to  leading economist\professional wag David McWilliams as "Deckland", a key constituency in re-electing Bertie Ahern two months ago. Then there are the farmers and rural regions in this area which contains some of the richest land in Ireland. An area therefore strongly pro-Anglo but with independent sentiments and Despite some catching up as of late, it's usually pretty solid for the Irish Parliamentary Party, Though both the Tories and Labour have some presence, though here the Tories often go into Electoral pacts with the IPP when sectarian tension are at the low-down.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: John Bruton (Irish Parliamentary Party)

Central and Western Meath:
Constituency Includes Navan Town (but excludes the Southern Suburbs), Trim, Kells, Drumconrath, Oldcastle, Athboy and Enfield. Includes the entire of county Meath west of Navan with a diagonal line from Enfield to just west of Slane defining the borders. Similiar to Boyne Estuary with it's population especially around Navan and the rise of Deckland, but also a traditional stronghold of the Irish Parliamentary Party due to it's Dublin-Whiggish connections and the vast majority of support from the big farmers of the region. Labour usually does a decent performance around Navan and some of the more Working Class commuter areas but rarely takes the seat but usually finishes second though Clan influence is gaining somewhat. Like in the other parts of the Outer Pale (Meath, Kildare and Wicklow) the Tories and the IPP would be rather close, especially at local level.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Damien English (Irish Parliamentary Party)

The Outer Pale:
Constituency Includes South East Meath including Ashbourne town, Dumshaughlin, Dunboyne, Drumree and Batterstown aswell as the North East of county Kildare including Maynooth, Leixlip, Kilcock, and Straffan. This constituency would be INSANE due to the unbelievable population explosion in the region, Traditionally another IPP rural stronghold this is now full of dormitory towns full of people who work in Dublin and these people would be sort unpredictable in how they vote, but as I said before they were recognized as a key reason for the re-election of Bertie Ahern but that maybe down to the incumbency factor, certainly ideology is not prevelant here. Would either go Labour or IPP generally, If Cameron truly revives the Tory party it may even turn blue in 2009 or 2010 (and would certainly do so if this was a constituency in Britain). Also contains the University of Maynooth and so might have a strong 'liberal' vote. Not generally a nationalist area though so the CnaG would be fairly weak.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Emmet Stagg (Labour)

Central and Western Kildare
Constituency Includes Carbury, Robertstown, Rathagan, Prosperous, Alan, The Curragh, Johnstown, Sallins and Naas. Another area which has had amazing population growth in the past 10 years. Naas is now one of the biggest towns in Ireland and is full of the "deckland" constituency identified in re-electing Bertie Ahern (ie. Lower Middle-Class families priced out of Dublin homes but have generally done well in the Economic boom, tend to be ideologiless and so favour incumbents despite a slight anti-politician slant in general.) Traditionally like all of the Outer Pale this would have gone easily for the IPP in occasional alliance with the Tories depending on the mood of the 26 countries towards Britain and the Conservative party which would turn increasingly negative in the 80s and 90s. For this reason I suspect this may go with Labour for the time present, at least it would have done in 1997 and 2001, 2005 would be close between Labour and the IPP. Toryism though has revived here under Cameron

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Jack Wall (Labour)

South Kildare:
Constituency Includes Newbridge, Kildare Town, Monasterevan, Athy, Kilcullen and Castledermot. Basically the entire reminder of County Kildare. This area has seen some population increase but not as much as the other constituencies mentioned and thus is more traditional. (Except for the area around Newbridge) Though the area around Athy is a traditional stronghold of the Irish Labour Party and thus I imagine it would be another IPP\Occasional Tory - Labour battle with the Clan nowhere to be seen. Perhaps went Labour in the hype of 1997 and maybe even again in 2001 but likely to have been lost two years ago. Like all of these regions, this still has a strong Farmers lobby, the land here being some of the best in Ireland.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Sean Power (Irish Parliamentary Party)

Overall North Lenister:
IPP 3 Labour 2 CnaG 1

Overall Ireland:
Tories 10 CnaG 10 IPP 7 Labour 4

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Wow.. That's awesome. Though now I think of it the exact boundaries of the Kildare constituencies are a bit off.. but it's very hard to find accurate population data (especially on those over 18 and able to vote.) on the web. I might fix it later.

Lenister - Part III coming up in a bit.. (Working on it now)

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Lenister - Part III (South Lenister)

North Wicklow:
Constituency contains Bray, Greystones, Enniskerry, Blessington, The Mountains, Kilcoole, Newtownmountkennedy, Ashford, Donard and Baltinglass. Constituency boundaries are defined by County Wicklow with a slight diagonal line going straight from Kiltegan to Rathnew.

Odd, Odd place voting wise. Wicklow really has no strong Republican traditions and I can't see CnaG doing well at all, like alot of the region surrounding Dublin it would probably be a Labour-IPP marginal constituency. Bray is by far the major population centre of the town is the sort of faded seafront ex-holiday place that one seems as strongly Labour in the UK but quite Fianna Fail-ish in Ireland, The coast around Wicklow in Bray and Greystones start off as fairly Working Class and increases in Status when one goes further up. Due to the Mountains farming isn't as important here as it may be other regions, though still significant. Wicklow was former Region of Charles Stewart Parnell and is fairly moderate yet unpredictable in it's choices. It's promoxity to Dublin makes it have a strong Social liberal streak (That, and all those all Wonkish new age types that seem to be spread across the Wicklow Mountains.) Probably Labour from 1997..

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Liz McManus (Labour)

South Wicklow & Carlow:
Constituency contains Wicklow Town, Rathdrum, Arklow, Avoca and Aughrim, Basically the entire of County Wicklow not in North Wicklow plus the entire of County Carlow north of Bagnelstown, Including Carlow and Tullow.

South Wicklow is much more conservative than the North, plus a major factor is the Commuter areas around Arklow and Rathdrum. Rural and dotted with Smallish but affulent villages and farms it's probably powerful IPP terriority.. aswell as being the old home of Parnell. Though IPP influence is starting to wane due to the Commuters it's unlikely to see it having much effect on this side of the constituency. Carlow is the biggest town in the Constituency, it also has a decent number of Students and a history of a "soft-left" vote. Strong IPP seat with Labour in Second, Tories would do fairly decent too with the right candidate, the whole of Wicklow has a fairly Independent streak and it wouldn't be such a huge issue, there is also a decent sized Protestant community. Clann na nGael would have little success.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Billy Timmins (Irish Parliamentary Party)

North Wexford:
Constituency contains Gorey, Ferns, Killane, Ford, Enniscorthy, Blackwater, Oilgate and Castlebridge with the border defined with a direct line just south of Castlebridge, Excluding New Ross.

This area is now Prime commuter belt and rather upper-working Class and Lower-Middle in certain respects (perhaps a way putting is it's full of the Irish equilavalent of the Daily Mail reading classes) fairly Social Liberal nowadays only due to the Dublin influence. Again like most of Lenister it would be strongly held by the IPP until 1997 when Labour would come significantly into the fore. Though CnaG would not be insignificant here either though the Tories would be, there is a decent nationalist streak in Wexford (Dating back from 1798). Difficult to call really. I'll go with the IPP.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Michael D'arcy (Irish Parliamentary Party)

North Kilkenny:
Constituency contains the City of Kilkenny, Urlingford, Castlecomer, Ballyraggat, Goresbridge, Callan and Thomastown. The border is defined by a straight line across just north of Ballyhale.

Now we're getting into terriority whose promixity to Dublin might not seriously influence it's politics, at least as much as in Kildare and Wicklow. In Irish politics at least since WT Cosgrave, Carlow-Kilkenny has generally been ignored by Irish goverments and hasn't produced a cabinet member in... god knows how long? Has a tendency to vote for mavericks and has a decent "soft-left" vote. The Constituency is divided into three: 1) The City of Kilkenny and it's suburbs, The city being Affluent and Medevil and would probably have strong Anglo connections in this timeline, 2) The towns of roughly 2,000 or 3,000 in population like Castlecomer, Urlingford, Thomastown, etc.. which divide themselves in those most "working\lower-middle class" or "Decklandesque" towns  and 3) The farmers.. Kilkenny is not a poor region of Ireland Agriculturally and it's quite close to two of the major ports.. Waterford and Dublin. All these factors suggest that this would be a fairly Strong Irish Parliamentary Party seat, though with both Labour and the Conservatives having some presense.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: John McGuinness (Irish Parliamentary Party)

And here's one that dicests two Provinces and four counties.

The South East:
Consituency contains 1) Ballinat and Ballyhale in County Kilkenny (Anywhere in Kilkenny not in North Kilkenny), 2) the City of Waterford and Dunmore in County Waterford, 3) The Southern Tip of Carlow (anywhere in Carlow excluded from South Wicklow & Carlow) and 4) The Southern Region of Wexford including Newross, Duncannon Wexford and Rosslare. The Border being defined just west of Waterford city, excluding Tramore.

Contains two of Ireland's major ports - Rosslare and Waterford, aswell as Wexford town. Major Trading hub.. this constituency is so convulted due to the fact that the County boundaries really don't help me here - Waterford too big for just one, too small for two. Ditto with Wexford. And if it wasn't for the demographics of this constituency there wouldn't much previous Election results to base my prediction on. Fairly Working Class though with a few Affulent farmers.. Waterford City has one of the more sharper class divides in Ireland, with the Workers Party, Sinn Fein doing well (as well as the region having shown some historical strength for the Labour Party) but as has the PDs and the more right-wing\neo-liberal elements of Fianna Fail. An interesting constituency, the role of Clann na nGael is tricky to form, would probably hold the seat in the 80s due to Anti-Thatcherism and an alienation towards the Labour party in Great Britain (Neither Foot nor Kinnock really have much "Ireland" appeal imo.) would be a fairly strong three-way marginal between CnaG, Lab and the IPP. With the present Economic boom it's hard not to see Nationalist sentiment waning.. leans Labour, slightly.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Brendan Howlin (Labour)

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Finally finished Lenister (sans Dublin; which to quote Jas, as every right minded Irish person knows, should always be seperated from the rest of the Country, I'll leave it till last.) but upcoming is Munster, which isn't too difficult... simply because many of the Dail constituencies can serve this purpose.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

For the Record I'm including Clare (and a tiny bit of Limerick - The Castleconnell area) in with Connacht for convience, If any man from Clare comes on the forum to complain.. well, sorry.

MUNSTER - Part one (The easy bit)

Tipperary North:
Constituency includes modern Dail constituency of Tipperary North (Thurles, Templemore, Nenagh, Roscrea, Borrisokane, Ballycahill, Holycross..) Electorate: 59,427

Land of the big farmers, dairy Industries and Ireland's only Agricultural college - peppered with decent sized mainly "working class" towns like Nenagh and Borrisokane. But unlikely to see any real strong Anti-British sentiment in the region due to trade and employment (Northern Tipperary wasn't part of the "Munster Republic" which split from the Free State in 1922 due to treaty iirc.), the European union being a major issue here. If you count Michael Lowry (Ind-FG) then this constituency recorded the highest FG vote in the entire country in 2007 and that's still rather significant due to tradition, also it must be said that there is a traditionally strong 'left-wing' vote though that has declined somewhat recently. Tends to like voting for "ordinary guy" politicians (most of Ireland does). I imagine this would perhaps vote rather similiar to Lenister; except perhaps with more protest voting. 

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Michael Lowry (Irish Parliamentary Party)

Tipperary South:
Constituency includes modern Dail constituency of Tipperary South (Clonmel, Cahir, Cashel, Fethard, Carrick-On-Suir, Tipperary Town, Ballingarry...) Electorate: 56,092

Not too dissimiliar to Tipperary North, but we are entering "rebel" terriority now. Though economically rather similiar to the North of the county and has a sizable traditional "left-wing" vote but again is fading, but strangely not as much as in Tipperary North. But Sinn Fein nor the Workers Party have ever held much ground here. Plus at present the most prosperous region of the constituency is currently in it's south, around Clonmel and it's towns are generally slightly more affulent than those to the north. Again I suspect that the European union would be a big issue here, Labour would do decently but almost never win the seat - but might have came close in 1997, the Conservatives would also do well until 1983 - at which point strong calls for independance would return. Leans IPP. The CnaG picking up most of the substanial protest vote - at least at national level.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Tom Hayes (Irish Parliamentary Party)

Kerry North:
Constituency includes modern Dail constituency of Kerry North (Tralee, Ballybunion, Ballyduff, Listowel, Tarbert, Castleisland....) Electorate: 52,476. Kerry is going to slightly over-represented here, like Donegal: But it's isolation makes it impossible otherwise.

The Rural conservative heartland of the Munster Republic, though it has a history of a strong (by Rural Munster standards) left-wing and has currently a SF TD since 2002 (and had a labour one non-stop from 1942 till then; but that was held entirely by one family. Families being a key currency in Irish politics) which shows that the left-vote can make up approx 25% of the constituency but it tends to have something a nationalist vest; as I mentioned it was the heartland of the Munster Republic and probably the worst affected area of the Civil war; simply due to the anti-Treaty attitude of the Local IRA and of most of the general population. In Elections today names and especially surnames seem to be, even by Irish standards, very important in Kerry - It also tends to generally prefer incumbents aswell. Showing the Populist nature of the constituency. In both Kerry constituency tourism is the main provider of the local economy and in the Economic declines of the 50s and 80s Kerry was one of the most badly effected regions - and has a tendency to see itself neglected by the rest of the country, though when many Americans think of "Ireland" the natural imagery of Kerry is what comes to mind - Though John Wayne wouldn't that appreciated here as the Yanks think. The main centre of the area is Tralee; where about a third of the population live (and more work, especially if they're not involved in Rural Tourism or Farmers.) - predictably Tourism and Retail are the main employers; industry being negiliable - and most of the minor towns in the region are similiar. There is increasing nationalism among some groups here aswell as the predictable conservatism; it saw a higher than usual vote against the Nice Treaty in both referendums and in issues relating to divorce or Abortion it always goes the side of the Catholic Church. For all these regions, I'd say it would particularly safe CnaG seat.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Martin Ferris (Clann na nGael)

Kerry South:
Constituency includes modern Dail constituency of Kerry South (Killarney, The Dingle Pennisula, The Ring of Kerry, Rathmore, Glenbeigh, Kenmare....) Electorate: 51,716

Politics very similiar to Kerry North; one major town which dominates (Killarney), an area whose economy is mainly based on income from Tourism (probably even more dependent than Kerry North; Killarney has more hotel beds than any other Irish town, except Dublin o\c) than with quite a bit of very small towns and alot of workers in traditional jobs such as fishermen, farmers, etc. This is the Dail constituency of Jackie Healy Rae after all and the Rural vote is very extensive here; much more so than in Kerry North due to the wider nature of area. Very little actual industry; not even construction - though that's probably still the biggest. There is also still some Irish speaking areas; though widely spoken Irish actually is in these places is hard to tell, due to local desire just to get some goverment grants (which of course would not exist in this scenario..) - barring a wide personal vote it's vote not to see Kerry South voting much different from Kerry North; even though from evidence the SF vote is weaker here, though whether that's down to Martin Ferris or the SF machine in Kerry South or just unpopularity is questionable. If there was to be a serious independence movement in Ireland, it would have to take seats like this.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: John O'Donahoe (Clann na nGael)

Limerick Outer:
Constituency includes most of the Dail constituency of Limerick West (Adare, Newcastle-West, Ballingarry, Askeaton, Abbeyfeale, Foynes, Bruff, Galbally.. Electorate: 53,879) plus Patrickswell, Pallasgreen, Ballyneety.

A major farming area this as it shares the fertile golden vale - Limerick in Irish is Luimneach, or the Flat land - with Tipperary though unlike Tipperary has less towns and it's population is far less concentrated (except for some of the Limerick City Outer Suburbs) and has historically almost never voted for anyone not from Fianna Fail or Fine Gael (only once Limerick West has done otherwise; in 1987 when they elected a PD; but Limerick was the PD heartland then) showing the inate conservatism of the constituency - almost three quarters of the land area of Limerick county (incl. the City) is used for Agriculture - though that's an unusual statistic for Munster and there is very little industry, there is also an unusually number of people employed in Managerial and higher-professional work (though unfortunetly the Census does not go by Dail Constituency; so whether they in The Outer reaches of Limerick City or in more Outer areas is harder to fathom). Aswell as Agricultural and high levels of self-employed (and Property Ownership) in Limerick County most of the economy is dependant on Tourist towns like Adare aswell as local major attractions such as Fishing, Golf, etc. All these factors add up to what seems like a fairly conservative constituency which wouldn't likely rock the Status Quo too much.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Tim O'Malley (Irish Parliamentary Party)

City of Limerick:
Constituency includes the City of Limerick, Mungret, Castletroy, Various inner and semi-Outer suburbs, most of the rest of County Limerick not included in "Limerick Outer" except for the area around Castleconnell and the Shannon Basin which will go into another constituency.

Analysis on Page six.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Jan O'Sullivan (Clann na nGael)

So far in 2005:
Clann na nGael 13 Irish Parliamentary Party 13 Tories 10 Labour 6

[Tetro Kornbluth]

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I have plently of time between now and Sunday when I'm off for a Prep week in College and then another week after that.. I'll get this done. The problem is admittely I don't really know much about some regions compared to others and I am often just looking at the Dail election results and type of TDs elected to make an educated guess. I admit almost knowing nothing about Co.Limerick for example outside the city which makes prediction there rather hard...

That, and laziness.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Made some minor tweaking of the Kildare's constituencies.. Putting Newbridge into South Kildare being the main Factor.

Actually Afleitch (or Al, or whoever..) I have to ask a question, In Britain do they divide constituencies by Electorate or by Total legal inhabitants (including those under 18).. This would make quite a difference actually.

Oh and one more constituency, it's a strange one united by nothing but the River Shannon and bisects two provinces and three counties but it's the best way that fits:

Lower Shannonside
Constituency Includes the Castleconnell area of Co. Limerick including some outer Limerick City suburbs, In County Clare the constituency contains Shannon Town, Sixmilebridge, Newmarket-on-Fergus, Tulla, Feakle, Bunratty, Killaloe, Mountshannon, Whitegate and Eastern Clare on the Shannon. The border in Clare is just north of Sixmilebridge and just west of Caher. In county Galway this constituency contains Portumna, Loughrea, Gort Eyrecourt and Ballinasloe. The border being defined just north of Ballinasloe and just west of Loughrea and north of Gort. In other words, this constituency one fine Gerrymander which probably suits the CnaG if anyone. (Literally the North and the South of these constituencies have nothing in common). It's also almost impossible to imagine what Clare politics would have been like in the 20th Century without the Influence of the De Valera family (Of course Shannon Town probably wouldn't exist if Ireland had never become independent.. it was a 'new town' set up by the Lemass goverment to boost Economic growth, but again let's ignore that anomaly. It's one of the biggest towns in this constituencies with a whooping 10,000 people in a constituency dominated by Affulent Trading towns (like Shannon) in the South and Middle Classesque suburbs plus Castleconnell, centre for anglers and generally quite a middle class area, PDs have traditionally done well here (Actually they were partially formed in Castleconnell). Then as you hit Galway the land gets progressively worse and the Towns, generally, more working class which in times of depression would be reserve magnets for emigration (as is the whole of Connacht and West Munster, really) - This area actually would have very strong independance leanings and very Anti-Thatcher\Tory - needless to say in neither side of the constituency do the British parties have much presence. And it's a total toss-up generally, but as there is an economic boom at present in this alternative aswell I suspect people wouldn't want to rock the boat too much.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Paul Connaughton (Irish Parliamentary Party)

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Actually Afleitch (or Al, or whoever..) I have to ask a question, In Britain do they divide constituencies by Electorate or by Total legal inhabitants (including those under 18).. This would make quite a difference actually.

Electorate

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There are a lot of New Town's over here, so I don't see why it would exist.

Btw, how much Irish demographic stuff be there online?

The best site I know of is:  www.cso.ie - but note the site is a bit of a nightmare to navigate. Plus they still haven't updated alot of it for the results of the 2006 census. Most of my analysis comes from what I know about these regions already... plus it's very difficult to get results on over 18s over a wide area (Thankfully I was already using Electorate; that would mean going back and doing parts of Lenister all over again - I'm actually mainly using the data I have an current Irish constituencies for the division - most of what I have isn't on-line except for a couple of things on wikipedia. This is why my constituencies may cross-county ones should not be taken as gospel..

[Tetro Kornbluth]

MUNSTER - Part II (Cork and the Remnants)

West Clare:
Constituency includes Clarecastle, Ennis, Corofin, The Burren, Lahinch, Quilty, Lisdoonvarna, Miltown Malby, Loop Head, Kilkee and Kilrush (Basically the Entire of county clare excluded from the "lower Shannonside" constituency.)

Hard to imagine what Clare politics would have been like in the 20th Century with no Eamonn De Valera; though the Province has a huge nationalist tradition dating back well before the 1918 Clare East by-Election. Though this is slightly different from West Cork, which is still pretty agrarian while the rate of employment in Clare is dependant on Multinational industries and services; similiar to most of Lenister actually. (Though a significant portion of this has been ceeded into the "Lower Shannonside" constituency - Shannon Airport and the Lemass Era economic development plans are mainly responisible for this.. so, ooops yet another anolomy. Only Donegal (and Dubln and Cork City, obviously) really has a significant proportion of it's workforce in Manual non-agrarian labour. So the question is here whether Clare's isolation and traditional nationalism trumps the economic interests of the Ennis region where the base of multinationals would be settled. The north of the county, which is isolated from the regions of power in Clare never mind the rest of the country would still be firmly nationalist and populist, though it's not really farmland at all (Karst region) and is totally dependant on tourism for economic growth. Leans towards the Irish Parliamentary party - and may well see both Labour and the Conservatives doing decently, but all would very much depend on 'events'.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Madeleine Taylor-Quinn (Irish Parliamentary Party)

North West Cork:
Constituency includes modern Dail constituency of Cork North West (including recent boundary changes to Ballincollig; though here there will an exception where Ballincollig will be split in half, the east side of it going into a urban constituency. Electorate prior to Changes: 53, 699 with Dail changes around 73,000 - my split should make it around 65,000 larger than most of the constituencies here - might transfer some land from NW Cork to SW Cork.)

Very, Very Rural and conservative constituency (Between them FF and FG took 95% of the vote in the Dail constituency in the election this year - this is an area of the country where FG tend to be more right-wing (at least economically) than FF (who generally are more Local Investment-Populist types). Neither party outside of those two has ever held a seat here - at least in Modern history. Fairly mountainous terrain and thus making it more of a poorer area with many struggling landowners - there is no town above 3,000 in population here except the inclusion of Ballincollig; which is nowadays a very working class Cork city commuter town with notable Populist sentiment. For these reasons, it would be fairly strong for Clann na nGael (Roughly 60-40). British parties would have no influence - though if we only talking Labour, Con and Lib Dem then for sure Labour would win all the Cork constituencies except maybe Blackwater & Dungarven (Tory-Lab marginal) and Douglas & Ringaskiddy (Three-way marginal..)

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Batt O' Keefee (Clann na nGael)

South West Cork:
Constituency includes modern Dail constituency of Cork South West (Electorate: 54,274) plus some rural areas transferred from NW Cork around the Kerry border.

Less Populist more Conservative than the above with bigger towns (like Bantry), easier access to the City and the ports and ergo more a centre for trade (also contains Kinsale, a noteworthy harbour) but is still rather agrarian (except at it's eastern edge where it contains some Commuter towns) and it's economy is probably highly dependant on tourism, though that is similiar problem across the South west of Ireland - which may breed resentment in parts, though this area is relatively free of immigration (which is another historical analomy we would have to ignore.. No carribeans or Africans came to Ireland after WWII excluding extremely rare individual cases.) It's alienation for the center of political power (Plus the history of nationalism in Cork - known as "The Rebel county". This was Michael Collins' home patch.) though for me makes it lean Clan roughly 55-45. Again no British party influence.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Jim O' Keefee (Clann na nGael) - no relation to above.

Blackwater & Dungarven:
Consituency includes West Waterford; Tramore, Dungarven, Lismore, Cappoquin (Anywhere in Waterford excluded from the "South East" constituency.) plus Youghal, Ballycotton and Midleton in County Cork.

Fiscal conservative commuter towns like Midleton mix with seaside resorts like Tramore and Ports like Youghal. Would be a difficult mix to judge and the British Labour Party might have a fair bit of influence especially in the Waterford end of the constituency. The more radical populism of the west having little sway over near Waterford and the more agrarian areas which might need British trade (though this wouldn't be as huge an issue as in Lenister). I could also see the Euro and the EU being fairly decisive here too, though there is something of a "soft left" vote (which might be "hard left" around Dungarvan). So I suspect it would lean right now towards the Irish Parliamentary Party.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Martin Cullen (Irish Parliamentary Party)

East Cork:
Constituency includes the modern Dail consituency of Cork East (Cobh, Fermoy, Mitchellstown.. Electorate 72,702) excluding the tiny region to south which includes Youghal and the Cork city commuter town of Midleton.

This constituency includes Cobh - traditionally the second biggest Shipbuilding centre in the whole Island (The first being Belfast) and still the traditional port of the City of Cork aswell as a major industrial base which has built along the coastal area - though this has been in decline for the past 25 years or so. Thus making it the perfect place to ferment Working class discontent at the Status Quo. Apart from the Industrial base around Cobh and the Eastern Cork outer suburbs which would mainly work in the Industrial coast (Petrochemicals, Pharma, etc.. aswell as in more recent times, major service firms, IT.. though Construction isn't as significant an employer here as in other places) the constituency is larger rural and conservative predominated by farmers on mainly poor land and small towns which mainly thrive on tourism and are traditionally towns for the local farmers' market. Traditionally in Ireland the area here (most - but not all of - the Cork East dail constituency) usually elects 2FF, 1FG and 1Lab - with a rather significant rather Labour vote, this area in Ireland like all of Cork really, has a traditional of nationalism especially around the Mallow area.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Sean Sherlock (Clann na nGael)

City of Cork:
Constituency includes the main metropolian area of Cork. The Constituency borders being defined by the area encircled by the North and South Ring Roads - Excluding Fair Hill and Douglas.

As has been said before Cork has long been a centre for nationalism in Ireland and was one the major urban centres to support the irregular IRA in the Civil war (aswell as being burnt down after the war of Independance.. though obviously neither of those events happen here.) Historically Cork city has been more an industrial centre than Dublin has, though still does not compare in any way to the manner in which certain industries played such a major role in Belfast life as has developed into more of a commerical centre than anything else though still much inferior (and traditionally much poorer) to Dublin in this regard (whether that is so or not is debatable certainly when considering how much it now costs to live in Dublin.. though up until recently the City of Cork had stopping of a grimy reputation.. to be skipped off. But like alot in Ireland, that's changed somewhat over the past 10 years). Electorally Cork city is divided up into two constituencies divided by the River Lee, Traditionally in both there has been a significant Labour vote for Ireland aswell as the traditional FF-FG divide - Other Parties doing well in the more middle class and liberal areas of the city which have been put into another constituency. How the city would vote is questionable, like all of Cork county it would strongly be Anti-Thatcher and pro-independence in the past, but whither with the boom and dramatic increase in Service employment and increased social mobility...? Traditional has this one going to the CnaG.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Michael Martin (Clann na nGael)

Cork City suburbs on the next page due to Gully excedding the character limit.

So far Results:

CnaG: 18 IPP: 17 Tories: 10 Labour: 6

The Cork city constituencies might be a bit off, the exact populations of the Metro area are hard to judge. Analysis to come shortly (sorry I'm behind... )

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I'll be leaving to start Prep Week in college tomorrow, for this reason I'll do Connacht on the quick and leave the analysis till I get back.

CONNACHT:
Sligo & Ballina:
Constituency includes all of Co. Sligo and Foxford, Ballina, Crossmolina, Killala and Ballyglass in Co. Mayo. The constituency border by lough Conn and just east of Crossmolina.

The Culture of Sligo - which makes up the major of this consituency - tends to have an unusually Anglo influence by West Ireland standards. From the Anglo-Irish poets (Like Yates; who was a Sligo native but then again so was Countess Markewicz) to the fact that the county is something of an enclave to Soccer unlike the rest of the west of the Island which prefers GAA (Though in saying that it's also a major Traditional Irish Music spot aswell.. ah the Mystery of local culture..). Electorally though it's similiar to other Parts of the west with only FF and FG having significant presence (which is, unusually, fairly evenly divided, at least in recent years) - and some SF as of late, though not as much as in neighbouring counties and there is the traditional complaint from Sligo natives that it's ignored by the centre of power, etc - slightly under half of the population live in Sligo town, a developing small town with a couple of typically martimite industries but is generally based upon retail, services and tourism for it's local economy. The last of those three especially is the key factor outside of the town in rural Sligo, which is still relatively agrarian based and remote from the rest of the country. The Mayo side of the constituency is nearly entired made up of the town of Ballina; which curiously has the highest rate of Unemployment in the entire Ireland (at nearby 16% according to 2007 CSO figures) and those who are employed are mostly in Typical tourism, Farming, Fishing but also in some industrial estates which have popped up in the town to help economic growth. Despite this the whole Mayo area represented in this area is mainly Poor-ish and Rural; though does have a traditional of slight FG voting - especially in recent years; though that might be down to the Edna Kenny factor (though he's from Castlebar). As for who would win this in a UK general election.. well, it would be fairly close and come down major grassroots issues. Though I suspect there would be an enough of an IPP surplus in North Sligo to upset an CnaG surplus around Ballina Town and the Southern end of Sligo. Usually, anyway.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: John Perry (Irish Parliamentary Party)

Central Mayo:
Constituency includes Castlebar, Ballyhean, Ballintober, Mayo Village, Ballinrobe, Cong, Claremorris, Ballyhaunis, Knock, Claremorris, Charlestown and Ballaghdereen. The Border of the constituency is defined by Loch Mask, Loch Conn and Just west of Castlebar.

Very Rural constituency with one or two major Tourist based or Service based economies and has a reputation of conversatism (ie. Only voting FF or FG; always) and supporting incumbency. As this area excludes Ballina and the West Coast it includes the areas of Mayo most effected positively by the Economic boom. While the County as a whole tends to have major economic blackspots most of those are based in the far West and around Ballina. The main town is Castlebar - whose economy is nowadays nearly all service workers. There is almost no industry and the number of actual farmers is decreasing - leaving many of those with actual land in relatively big holdings. Though the type of land here makes crop growing futile (see The Potato Famine) the region is a major exporter of Meat in the region; the local airport based in Knock (also a religious shrine due to some miracle whatsit) is also a major economic hub. Due to these factors it will probably be a slightly IPP lean to it in recent years; while in the past it would have been an CnaG stronghold. It may depend alot on local issues (like all else in Irish politics.)

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Edna Kenny (Irish Parliamentary Party)

West Connacht:
Constituency includes Achill Island, Erris, Bellacorick, Westport, Louisburgh and Partry in County Mayo and Clifden, Joyce Country, Connemara, Spiddal and The Aran Islands with the border defined at just east of Oughterard and Galway Airport.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Eamonn O Cuiv (Clann na nGael)

Galway Central:
Constituency includes Oughtetard, Moycullen, Salthill, Galway Airport and The City of Galway west of the River Corrib.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Noel Grealish (Irish Parliamentary Party)

Galway East:
Constituency includes the city of Galway East of the River Corrib, Kinvara, Kilcolgan, Oranmore, Athenry, Newcastle, Tuam, Headford and Claregalway - all of County Galway east of Loch\River Corrib except the area included in the Lower Shannonside constituency.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Noel Treacy (Clann na nGael)

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I only have Dublin to do now and I'll do that when I back (aswell as the remaining Analysis):

But I'll lapse into an alternative hypothesis here where the three mainstream British parties are dominant here (would never happen but...):

LENISTER:
North Louth: Fairly safe LAB
Boyne Estuary: Lean CON, Marginal with LIB DEMS.
The Outer Pale: Lean CON.... I think.. ish. (would be strange anyway)
Central and Western Meath: Lean CON
Central and West Kildare: Lean CONish - significant LAB and LIB DEM presence.
South Kildare: Fairly CON, but LAB could win it in good years.
North Wicklow: Lean LAB
South Wicklow-Carlow: Lean CON
North Wexford: Lean LAB
The South East: Fairly safe LAB
North Kilkenny: Three-way Marginal, maybe? Perhaps would go for personal vote
Offaly: Strong CON
Laois: Strong CON
Westmeath: Strong CON
------------------------------------
Upper Shannonside: Agriarian LAB.. possibly..
Lower Shannonside: LAB-CON marginal (possibly Irish bellwether)

MUNSTER:
West Clare: Fairly CON
City of Limerick: Very Safe LAB
Limerick Outer: Strong CON
Kerry North: LAB-CON battle, may lean LAB
Kerry South: Fairly CON
North West Cork: Agriarian LAB
South West Cork: Hard to say, LAB-CON Marginal maybe. Slight CON lean.
East Cork: Fairly LAB
Blackwater & Dungarven: Fairly LAB
City of Cork: Strong LAB
Cork - Fair Hill & Blarney: Leans LAB
Cork - Douglas & Ringaskiddy: Would be very tight battle.. Possibly LIB DEM, but very close.

Connacht:
Longford & Roscommon: Strong CON
Sligo & Ballina: Leans LIB DEM
Central Mayo: LIB DEM-CON (Think South West England)
West Connacht: Depends on the issues.. certainly not the LIB DEMS though.
Galway Central: Leans CON
Galway East: Strong CON

[Tetro Kornbluth]

No comments since my last apperance....

Anyway I'll get to finishing this soon enough.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

No comments since my last apperance....

Well, I'm reading with interest if not commenting. Like I said, there's just so many variables at play.

What I find most interesting is that you have two Irish parties in play in Clann na Gael and the Irish Parliamentary Party. I'd be more inclined to believe that as with pre-independence, there would probably be one strong party (if having divergent wings of varying commital to constitutionalist means) competing against the 'normal' British parties.

I'd also find it very difficult to classify constituencies along Lab/Con/LDem lines given just how Irish politics has evolved - i.e. much less clear ideologies; more localist in outlook (or maybe I'm wrong ?)

Anyhow, your work is still very interesting. By and large, a good effort at constituency drawing (I'll pretend I didn't see Lower Shannonside )

I assuming here there is Home Rule, and thus some sort of Opposition develops to the Status Quo which would develop in a 1920s devolved parliament (This Scenario breaks off from normal history in that there is no Easter Rising..), with the rising anger and discontement with the political status Quo sort some of opposition would have to emerge - Unlikely to the British Labour Party for various reasons, more likely a radical nationalist outfit (Perhaps led by a certain O'Duffy or maybe even a certain and very alive M Collins? Of course, a certain E D. Valera would remain a maths teacher till the end of his days in this alternative.) which could unite the different strains of radical Irish nationalism.. Jim Larkin Trade Unionism, Pearse Brand nationalism, Old Style Fenians and United Irishmen, Connolyism (and what role would Larkin, Pearse, Connoly, McDonnagh, et al have in this alternative history where they don't die in Prison in 1916.. now that's the big question mark.) Of course, after 1940 things get even more dependant on variables, especially with Ireland being WWII at this time.