Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016

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Massive Shinner underperformance in Dublin South West btw.

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Laois is the first constituency to finish with Stanley (SF) and Flanagan (FG) are elected along with Fleming (FF) from earlier, as expected.

In Galway East Rabbitte (FF) and Canney (IND) have been elected just waiting for the distribution of both candidates surpluses to announce Ciaran Cannon (FG) the last elected.

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Fianna Fail's gains in vote are nearly outside Dublin (their seat gains in Dublin are more to a) very small increase in vote and b) better candidate strategy than in 2011, and clearly taken near exclusively from people who voted FG in 2011. This is a revival, but it's not a comeback to the Ahern era.

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Roscommon-Galway (aka payback for the closure of Roscommon Hospital's A&E unit)

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Your guess is as good as mine.

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In other counts Boyd Barrett (PBP) first to be elected in Dun Laoghaire, Toibin (SF) second to be elected in Meath West, Mary Lou McDonald (SF) first in Dublin Central and Leo Vardakar (FG) first in Dublin West.

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Dublin Central - 6th Count



DavidB: http://www.rte.ie/news/election-2016/

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Dublin Rathdown is the second constituency to finish. First seat goes to independent Shane Ross, as expected; second seat goes to Fine Gael (not to incumbent Alan Shatter, but rather his running-mate Josepha Madigan); and, out of completely nowhere, the last seat goes to Green Party candidate Catherine Martin.

Outstanding result for the Greens

Means I voted for a winner. Not sure what to feel about that.

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Heather Humphries (FG) wins in Cavan-Monaghan. The only Presbyterian in the Dail.

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Wicklow's second count has seen Sean Brady (SF) and Simon Harris (FG) elected. The count has now adjourned for the night. Expect more adjournments over the next hour or so.

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Cork South West Complete

Margaret Murphy O'Mahony (FF)
Michael Collins (IND)
Jim Daly (FG)

Elected

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Is there still a chance of Renua winning a seat in Offaly (for some reason)? Barry Cowen of FF has won the first seat, and Marcella Corcoran-Kennedy of FG winning the second looks very likely, but then there's less than 400 votes between three candidates tied for the third seat: Carol Nolan of SF, the second FF candidate (Eddie Fitzpatrick), and John Leahy of Renua. It'll be decided by the preferences of independent Joe Hannigan, so...what kind of voters does Hannigan have? And why was Renua so successful specifically here? It doesn't seem like Offaly was seen as a likely seat for them.

The Renua candidate was/is a popular local councillor. In rural Ireland when asking "Why is Candidate X popular when he belongs to party Y?" this is nearly always the answer.

As for your other questions, no idea. Hannigan was another localist independent but apparently popular in GAA circles (this usually means "strongly FG or FF leaning") so I can't say for sure.

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Count 10, not great for the SDs:

Donohoe 5127
Gannon 3931
O'Sullivan 3923
Burke 3658 and out

Obviously O'Sullivan could ask for a recount, but if those 8 votes hold, wouldn't that be it? Gannon elected as a fourth seat for the SDs?

No, there's only 3 seats.

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Interestingly, in Dublin North-West (the only place FG didn't win a seat in 2011) they are just 100 votes behind FF for the last seat with 3400 Labour votes yet to be transferred. Rare FG pickup?

Seems very likely but note boundary changes have made this more favourable to FG

Anyway Meath West is Finished: Damien English (FG) elected

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Amazing election fact: Labour did better in Clare than in Dublin South Central. Which is... insane.

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Dublin Bay North is also finally in and your guess is as good as mine


% of 1st Preference Vote
19.7%
7.7%
15.4%
11.6%
9.0%
4.4%
5.2%
8.0%
17.5%
% Change from 2011 General Election
FG
LAB
FF
SF
AAA-PBP
RN
SD
GP
IA
IND
OTH
i Comparison with 2011 figures adjusted due to boundary changes

Fine Gael Labour Party Fianna Fáil Sinn Féin Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit Renua Ireland Social Democrats Green Party Independent Alliance Independent OTHERS
Votes by count
Count 1
RICHARD BRUTON , FG
9792
SEÁN HAUGHEY , FF
8007
FINIAN MCGRATH , IA
5878
AODHÁN Ó RÍORDÁIN , LAB
5675
TOMMY BROUGHAN , IND
5361
DENISE MITCHELL , SF
5039
AVERIL POWER , IND
4911
JOHN LYONS , AAA-PBP
4409
CIAN O'CALLAGHAN , SD
3864
MÍCHEÁL MACDONNCHA , SF
3527
DEIRDRE HENEY , FF
3360
TERENCE FLANAGAN , RN
3205
NAOISE Ó MUIRI , FG
2868
MICHAEL O'BRIEN , AAA-PBP
2236
STEPHANIE REGAN , FG
1857
DAMIEN O'NEILL , IND
1446
DONNA COONEY , GP
1024
JIMMY GUERIN , IND
756
PAUL CLARKE , IND excluded
306
PROINSIAS Ó CONARÁIN , IND excluded
104

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Donohue (FG) and O'Sullivan (IND) elected in Dublin Central

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Donohue (FG) and O'Sullivan (IND) elected in Dublin Central

O'Sullivan came back from 7th place and just 8.4% of the vote to win in a three-seater, which was quite impressive (though as a nonpartisan lefty-ish incumbent type, she likely benefited from high name recognition and not really being hated by anyone). Also, Limerick County is in, and the final result there is 2 FG, 1 FF. O'Sullivan had just 1990 first-preference votes, by far the fewest of any candidate elected tonight. (The only one below 3000, in fact, and one of just 3 below 5000).

On a different note, is Dublin Central extremely underpopulated or was turnout there just extremely low? Their quota was just 5922. By comparison, in Limerick County (also a 3-seater), the quota was 11104, nearly double.

Irish electoral constituencies are drawn by population, not electorate. There are a lot of non-voters in Dublin Central, for reasons you can probably guess from its name.

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Carlow-Kilkenny finishes 2 FG 2 FF 1 SF