United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership

[Tetro Kornbluth]

^

 we're actually going to do this. The future of the economy is going to be settled by a vote of the Tory membership.

Doesn't that make you feel warm and fuzzy inside?

And if it doesn't, remember this is what the average Conservative membership looks like

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Sedgefield must have voted Leave, and probably over 60% - Durham voted 57.5 to Leave, and that includes not just Sedgefield but the University town of Durham itself, which is hard to imagine as anything other as quite strong for Remain (the town itself that itself - not its surrounding hinterland, oh no).

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Plymouth has also released ward-level data. I don't know how that shakes up on the constituency level though.

EDIT: So has Peterborough

EDIT2:Salford

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Not wards, but Wiltshire has released results by counting area. The whole county was divided into four 'counting areas' (including postal votes) - Chippenham, Devizes, Salisbury and Trowbridge - and those results are what they have released. I don't know whether those counting areas correspond to wards though.

Chippenham 51.5% Remain
Devizes 54.8% Leave
Salisbury 52.15% Leave
Trowbridge 54.8% Leave

[Tetro Kornbluth]

It is a similar situation in Leeds which did not count by wards but by 'counting areas'. However, unlike Wiltshire I can confirm that these counting areas (all ten of them) were drawn up with wards in mind. The wards in each area are listed below along with the result

Area 1 (Armley, Calverley & Farsley and Horsforth): 53.33% Remain
Area 2 (Beeston & Holbeck, Cross Gates & Whinmoor and Harewood): 55.36% Leave
Area 3 (Bramley & Stanningley, Killinbeck & Seacroft and Weetwood): 54.25% Leave
Area 4 (Burmantofts & Richmond, Garforth & Swillington and Kirkstall): 50.31% Remain
Area 5 (Chapel Allerton, Kippax & Methley and Moortown): 56.74% Remain
Area 6 (City & Hunslet, Morley South, Otley & Yeadon and Roundhay) 57.07% Remain
Area 7 (Farnley & Wortley, Guiseley & Rawdon and Temple Newsam): 55.34% Leave
Area 8 (Adel & Wharfedale, Gipton & Harehills, Pudsey and Wetherby): 51.75% Remain
Area 9 (Alwoodley, Headingley, Middleton and Morley North): 51.79% Leave
Area 10 (Ardsley & Robin Hood, Hyde Park & Woodhouse and Rothwell): 51.56% Leave

EDIT: Just looked at where those wards are on a map. LOL is all I can say. Still though, not altogether useless.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

South Tyneside now - some hilariously uniform results. All 18 wards voted to leave, and only one was close (very close) and that was, wait for it, Cleadon and East Boldon, historically the Tory's strongest ward in the borough (all it has a full slate of Labour councillors now)

Beacon and Bents: 59.34% Leave
Biddock and All Saints: 65.89% Leave
Cleadon Park: 64.14% Leave
Harton: 64.11% Leave
Horsley Hill: 58.54% Leave
Simonside and Rekendyke: 61.35% Leave
West Park: 60.9% Leave
Westoe 58.58% Leave
Whitburn and Marsden: 61.71% Leave
Whiteleas: 65.83% Leave
Bede: 67.85% Leave
Boldon Colliery: 60.44% Leave
Cleadon and East Boldon: 50.29% Leave
Fellgate and Headworth: 66.57% Leave
Hebburn North: 60.2% Leave
Hebburn South 61.98% Leave
Monkton: 63.39% Leave
Primose: 65.7% Leave

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Waltham Forest (Doesn't include postals)

Cann Hall 61% Remain
Leyton 60.3% Remain
Leytonstone 66.8% Remain
Cathall 59.5% Remain
Grove Green 66.5% Remain
Forest 61.3% Remain

(Leyton and Wanstead: 62.9% Remain)

Hale End and Highams Park 55% Remain
Endlebury 56% Leave
Hatch Lane 55.1% Leave
Chingford Green 55.3% Leave
Larkswood 55.8% Leave
Valley 54.2% Leave

(Chingford and Wood Green: 53.5% Leave)

Wood Street 67.1% Remain
High Street 69.1% Remain
William Morris 69.4% Remain
Higham Hill 59.9% Remain
Markhouse 68.1% Remain
Hoe Street 71.3% Remain
Lea Bridge 63.4% Remain
Chapel End 61.9% Remain

(Walthamstow: 66.51% Remain)

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Some of those Hanretty figures are wrong from what we now about ward data. Sutton Coldfield voted leave, for example, but he has it voting remain.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I wonder what a correlation coefficient between Remain-Leave margin and Labour-Tory margin in England (obviously Scotland would skew it quite a bit) would look like. From this map, I don't really see a relationship either way, but there might be one even if it's not obvious.

I didn't do this for England but in AAD I posted charts for the correlation between support for Scottish Independence and Welsh Autonomy (2011 and 1997) and 2016 remain. In all calculations the correlation was basically zero - and literally zero for 2014 Yes and 2016 Remain.

However, for Northern Ireland there was an extremely strong negative correlation between voting for self-declared Unionists in the 2016 Assembly elections and voting for Remain (r=-0.95), and the reverse for the Nationalists (r=0.80).