Oh f'ck it, I'll do one of these for Ireland - MoE: 100%
Dublin: 1 Fine Gael, 1 Sinn Fein, 1 Independent (Nessa Childers)
In practice, the last seat could be anyone, but as Childers is the only candidate I can consider voting for unironically and polls - those require massive salt for sure - indicate she's doing much better than I expected then why not? Independents are likely to do very well. Sinn Fein can't be guaranteed for a seat either)
South: 2 Fine Gael 1 Sinn Fein 1 Fianna Fail
This looks very likely, the only one in doubt is the last Fine Gael seat and if they do win two, who will it be: Clune or Harris? The former currently looks the most likely which means no by-election in Wicklow
. The only possible outside challenger is the Independent Diarmuid O'Flynn, journalist and anti-austerity activist but he looks a bit too far behind at this stage.
Midland-North West: 1 Fine Gael 1 Sinn Fein 2 Independents (Flanagan and Harkin)
Ok... this is something of a ballsy prediction with Fianna Fail actually losing a seat but this one is the hardest to call. It's basically 4 from 5 between FG, SF, FF and the two independents and I think any of them could fall out. The two independents have the disadvantage of being from the same area of the country (Roscommon and Sligo respectively) but both have high profile and Harkin has been an MEP for a decade now. Harkin, in particular, is likely to attract the soft-left vote which is deserting Labour en masse while Flanagan is more likely to attract more general protest voters. Despite running an unknown, this seat contains Sinn Fein's strongest areas and they should be in and despite the government being very unpopular, I really don't think they are doing so badly as to go seatless in a constituency like this. So it's between Pat 'The Cope' Gallagher of Fianna Fail and Luke 'Ming' Flanagan for the last seat. My money is on Ming but this is liable to be totally wrong.
