NY - Siena - Biden +9

[wbrocks67]

Biden is underperforming the generic democrat by 20% with black voters, 18% with Jewish voters, and 14% with young voters. He can’t possibly be a bad candidate. The pollsters just keep over-representing those infamous pro Trump democrat constituencies. Non response bias.

He's not underperforming them by that much, Biden gets 47% and the generic Dem gets 49%. They're nearly equal.

[wbrocks67]

A lot of lies going around this thread, but Biden performs similarly to the Generic Dem, outside of his *left flank* by a few %:

Democrats: 71% Biden, 75% Dem
Republicans: 9% Biden, 8% Dem
Independents: 37% Biden, 37% Dem
Moderates: 46% Biden, 47% Dem
Liberals: 84% Biden, 89% Dem
Conservatives: 17% Biden, 17% Dem
Whites: 46% Biden, 46% Dem
Blacks: 63% Biden, 72% Dem
Hispanics: 44% Biden, 44% Dem
18-34: 44% Biden, 52% Dem
35-54: 44% Biden, 47% Dem
55+: 53% Biden, 50% Dem

His worst areas compared to a generic dem are among left flank - black voters, young voters, liberal voters, but nothing more than 9%.

Given that context, there's obviously a lot of room for Biden to grow here.

[wbrocks67]

The weirdest thing honestly is how Siena keeps finding Biden so low with Ds, as if there are tons of ancestral Ds in New York or something. Exit polls have him getting 97% of Ds in 2020, but he's literally at 71% right now. There's no way Trump is even getting double digit support among Ds here when he got 3% in 2020.