The thing is, even Trump +5 isn't crazy given NV will be close. Outliers like that will happen. but Trump +12-14 is just on another planet.
Trump +5 is not an outlier. Trump +12/14 is one, but MC had Trump +11 a few weeks ago. Polling average w/ NYT poll is now Trump +7. A Biden +1 internal is about as much of an outlier as the NYT poll, even if the Biden +1 is magnitudes likelier to be the final outcome.
Polling is a snapshot, and the current state of the race in Nevada is a Trump blowout. Ralston probably sees more NV internals than anyone and he has echoed the Trump +5-7 public state of the race.
Would disagree on this, because we were also getting these types of polls last fall while simultaneously getting Biden +1 in both CNN and a GOP internal.
Honestly, I don't really think Ralston is all he has cracked up to be (and I made the clear in 2022 as well)
I don't think Ralston is a wizard, but he is the most prominent Nevada political reporter. He probably sees more Nevada internal polling than anyone. If the public polling for NV is averaging Trump +7 and he says the internals more or less say the same thing, the conclusion is that Trump is up by a lot in Nevada, at least according to the polling universe. Nevada Dems have a great ground game and stand a good chance to beat the polls, but it's not like polls can ever pick up the effect of the Culinary Union.
The thing is though, we don't have a ton of Nevada polling to go on, but what we do have is all over the place-
Siena: Trump +12 and +14
Bloomberg: Trump +8 and +11
WSJ: Trump +4
Emerson: Trump +1 and +4
GOP internal: Trump +5
GOP internal: Biden +1
Could I buy that Trump has a marginal lead, sure. But I also think the lower end average of those (WSJ-Emerson-GOP internals) is closer to where it is (maybe Trump up a few points) and not the ridiculous Siena/Bloomberg numbers
