NYT/Siena: PA--Trump +3, WI-Biden +2, MI-Trump +7, GA-Trump +10, NV-Trump +12, AZ-Trump +7

[wbrocks67]

Wow, realistic numbers in PA/WI/Mi but outlandish numbers in AZ/GA/NV, never seen this before. Ever.

Nevada's #s seem insane until you realize though that the Party ID w/ leaners is literally R+13. The other states are all realistic (PA is a tad too red at R+3) but everything is somewhat realistic for that except NV.

[wbrocks67]

LV since they weren't posted:

H2H:
AZ: Trump +6, 49-43
GA: Trump +9, 50-41
MI: Biden +1, 47-46
NV: Trump +13, 51-38
PA: Trump +3, 48-45
WI: Trump +1, 47-46

Multi-way:
AZ: Trump +9, 44-35-8
GA: Trump +8, 42-34-8
MI: Biden +3, 42-39-7
NV: Trump +14, 44-30-11
PA: Trump +4, 41-37-9
WI: Trump +1, 40-39-8

Favorabilities:
AZ: Trump +0 (49-49), Biden -20 (39-59)
GA: Trump +0 (49-49), Biden -21 (39-60)
MI: Biden -13 (43-56), Trump -19 (40-59)
NV: Trump +4 (51-47), Biden -27 (36-63)
PA: Trump -9 (45-54), Biden -15 (42-57)
WI: Biden -11 (44-55), Trump -14 (42-56)

[wbrocks67]

The favorabilities also show the whackness of NV/GA/AZ IMO - Biden's in no commanding position obviously, but Trump is not at net 0 or positive favorability in those 3 states, while simultaneously being down close to or at double digits in WI/PA/MI.

[wbrocks67]

Wow, realistic numbers in PA/WI/Mi but outlandish numbers in AZ/GA/NV, never seen this before. Ever.

Nevada's #s seem insane until you realize though that the Party ID w/ leaners is literally R+13. The other states are all realistic (PA is a tad too red at R+3) but everything is somewhat realistic for that except NV.

The numbers may look a bit extreme, but I think there are enough polls to show that Biden has a problem in the sunbelt

Either the polls just aren’t getting a good sample of young and nonwhite voters who will come home to Biden in the end, or Trump is really gaining with these groups (if not through persuasion then by turnout)

I would disagree with that - we haven't gotten enough polling to really tell, especially in AZ/NV. Nevada has been a true dearth except for Morning Consult basically, while Arizona, we literally just got a Biden +1 poll the other day.

GA has been more mixed - Trump has had an edge, but just recently we've gotten numerous polls with Trump only up 1-3 (WSJ/Emerson/Marist/CBS), so no, I don't buy these Trump +10 polls that have Trump at 20% of the black vote and winning young voters by nearly 20%.

[wbrocks67]

I wonder if the MI RV poll was a miscalculation or something? The #s are truly outlandish, and it jumps all the way from Trump +7 among RV to Biden +1 among LV. It also only has Trump +2 among RV in a multi-way, compared to Trump +7 among H2H.

I mean, that one has Trump winning young voters by nearly 30%, Biden winning seniors by 20%, and Trump winning 30% of the black vote. Given the LV #s, I wonder if there was some data input error somewhere or something with that one....?

[wbrocks67]

18-29 year olds RV:
Arizona: Biden +24
Wisconsin: Biden +24
Pennsylvania: Biden +1
Nevada: Trump +13
Georgia: Trump +18
Michigan: Trump +27

I just lol

[wbrocks67]

LV since they weren't posted:

H2H:
AZ: Trump +6, 49-43
GA: Trump +9, 50-41
MI: Biden +1, 47-46
NV: Trump +13, 51-38
PA: Trump +3, 48-45
WI: Trump +1, 47-46

Multi-way:
AZ: Trump +9, 44-35-8
GA: Trump +8, 42-34-8
MI: Biden +3, 42-39-7
NV: Trump +14, 44-30-11
PA: Trump +4, 41-37-9
WI: Trump +1, 40-39-8

Favorabilities:
AZ: Trump +0 (49-49), Biden -20 (39-59)
GA: Trump +0 (49-49), Biden -21 (39-60)
MI: Biden -13 (43-56), Trump -19 (40-59)
NV: Trump +4 (51-47), Biden -27 (36-63)
PA: Trump -9 (45-54), Biden -15 (42-57)
WI: Biden -11 (44-55), Trump -14 (42-56)

Hmmm, those favorability numbers make me wonder if they got samples that are too R.

Trump’s approval was always underwater as president and now it’s even? Trump has not done anything since 2020 that would endear him to a bunch of voters who never approved of him. It’s not like he’s Jimmy Carter and building houses for charity.

This - all of these states voted within 3% of each other in 2020. Yes, they have different dynamics but you'd expect somewhat similar results. There's no way you range from Trump +4 fav to Trump -19 fav among these states. The PA/WI/MI results at least comport with everything we've seen in real life, the others don't. Even in 2022, we saw similar results for Trump among all of these swing states. Take the Arizona exit poll, which had Trump at 42/57 in 2022. And that was with a Republican electorate too!

I know I'll get flack from the usual suspects but at this point I don't care - if people truly think Trump is winning by 6-13 points in AZ, NV, GA... come on now.

[wbrocks67]

Was curious how the averages of the 6 swing states compared to 2020:

18-29 year olds
2020: Biden +24 (61-37)
2024: Biden +4 (47-43)

30-44 year olds
2020: Biden +8 (53-45)
2024: Trump +8 (49-41)

45-64 year olds
2020: Trump +9 (54-45)
2024: Trump +13 (53-40)

65+
2020: Trump +5 (52-47)
2024: Biden +2 (48-46)

White voters
2020: Trump +15 (57-42)
2024: Trump +14 (54-40)

Black voters
2020: Biden +79 (89-10)
2024: Biden +52 (70-18)

Latino voters
2020: Biden +25 (61-36)
2024: Biden +5 (47-42)

Males
2020: Trump +8 (53-45)
2024: Trump +18 (55-37)

Females
2020: Biden +10 (55-45)
2024: Biden +6 (49-43)

You will be shocked to find that White voters once again are behaving almost exactly like 2020 but nonwhite voters are not. Also continues the polling trend of Biden doing better with older voters but worse with young voters.

[wbrocks67]

Overall a horrible picture. Yup, the grosstabs are questionable, but either polling is just totally broken or it doesn't look for Biden at all.

All things considered, I'm slowly moving towards the belief that Biden is headed for defeat. Maybe not by these margins here. There's still enough time to turn things around, but for how long have been saying this?

This is a weird thing to say given that the race is an absolute tossup in the 3 states that will really decide the election (WI/PA/MI) - if Biden wins those 3, which even judging by this poll, he most definitely can, then he wins ....

[wbrocks67]

Overall a horrible picture. Yup, the grosstabs are questionable, but either polling is just totally broken or it doesn't look for Biden at all.

All things considered, I'm slowly moving towards the belief that Biden is headed for defeat. Maybe not by these margins here. There's still enough time to turn things around, but for how long have been saying this?

This is a weird thing to say given that the race is an absolute tossup in the 3 states that will really decide the election (WI/PA/MI) - if Biden wins those 3, which even judging by this poll, he most definitely can, then he wins ....

If he can hold the rest for sure, while losing NV would bring down to 270.

The reason I'm starting to believe this that we haven't seen much change in the numbers albeit from Biden's brief and medicore bump after his SOTU. That leads me to the conclusion the American public just doesn't want him to be prez anymore. Additionally, it seems like lots of Millennial and Gen Z voters feel a huge sense of anexity and are willing to throw the election to Trump by sitting November out. Sadly, many Americans see Biden as a doddering old fool no longer up to the task. Is that image unfair? Absolutely. But it's hard to change public perceptions, especially as we get closer and closer to the election.

Sure, it's not too late... but for how long have we been saying this? Initially I expected things to shift into the election year or spring, similar to Clinton and Obama. We haven't seen this yet, and Biden is arguably in a much worse position. Obama was just slightly underwater in 2012 at that time, Biden's approval has been in double digit negative pretty much since the summer of 2021. In fact, he may be happy to run against a horrible candidate like Trump. Otherwise, this race might be Likely/Safe R instead of Tilt or Lean.

I think people need to take a break and touch grass. We are so in it that it's hard to understand the regular person's POV - we are still half a year out from this election. 6 months is a very long time - most average people are not even thinking about the election at this point.

I'm not even saying that to suggest that Biden will get some surge by the end (could happen, could not!) but sometimes we need to stand back and realize that 6 months is an eternity.

[wbrocks67]

Man you can't even go into election twitter without being swarmed by dem unskewers. If the polls end up being right in November, they will look even dumber than 2012 republican unskewers. It's fine to be skeptical of polls but like, really? Every single poll?

It's not every single poll, and I don't think anyone is saying the WI/PA/MI #s are weird.

The entire gist is that NV/AZ/GA are being impacted by unrealistic numbers with nonwhite and/or young voters. And that's not unrealistic given the issues in 2022 with the same thing.

[wbrocks67]

The PA suburb sample is somewhat bigger (~400) so I think it's also able to be scrutinized a bit more - but still only has Biden +13 (52-39) in H2H and +10 (41-31) in multi-way. Biden won the suburbs by 19% in 2020. Trump is certainly not improving between 6 and 9% in the suburbs compared to 2020.

Philly's # is atrocious (Biden 54-30) - the sample size is like ~90 so yeah, but even outside of that, to get 30% for Trump in Philly should be next to impossible.

[wbrocks67]

How many of the people answering the “who wins” posts every month are moved into the Trump camp? Surreal to say but this feels over ALREADY. Which even I wouldn’t have said before.

Much like the UK - the result feels baked in. What could Biden do to change it? I’m not sure anything. If everything about Trump isn’t enough to move people… they’re beyond help. The world is wondering “WTF how the F are Americans so deluded?”

I don’t think it is over because Trump’s position is pretty tenuous in the rust belt even if it’s stronger in the sun belt.

Yeah, even the article states this:

Historically, polls at this early stage have not been necessarily indicative of the outcome, and Mr. Trump’s breakthrough among traditionally Democratic young, Black and Hispanic voters may not rest on a solid foundation. His strength is concentrated among irregular, disengaged voters who do not pay close attention to politics and may not yet be tuned into the race. They may be prone to shift their views as the race gets underway.

[wbrocks67]

It's almost June. The race, anemic as it is, is already underway. Rescheduling weed clearly isn't going to help (what a half assed compromise that was). If Biden wants to win he needs to start issuing broad, New Deal-esque executive orders and quickly.

If you're talking about young voters, the jury is still out though on how they're voting.

Yes, small sample sizes (though over n=100 at least), but Wisconsin and Arizona in this very poll have Biden 2020 levels of young voter support. Georgia and Michigan meanwhile have Trump +20. The jury is very much still out on polling on these groups.

[wbrocks67]

Maybe I'm just overly optimistic but it's weird to me that people are dooming so bad when WI/PA/MI are - once again - literal tossups here and that is Biden's easiest path to victory?

[wbrocks67]

How many of the people answering the “who wins” posts every month are moved into the Trump camp? Surreal to say but this feels over ALREADY. Which even I wouldn’t have said before.

Much like the UK - the result feels baked in. What could Biden do to change it? I’m not sure anything. If everything about Trump isn’t enough to move people… they’re beyond help. The world is wondering “WTF how the F are Americans so deluded?”

I don’t think it is over because Trump’s position is pretty tenuous in the rust belt even if it’s stronger in the sun belt.

Yeah, even the article states this:

Historically, polls at this early stage have not been necessarily indicative of the outcome, and Mr. Trump’s breakthrough among traditionally Democratic young, Black and Hispanic voters may not rest on a solid foundation. His strength is concentrated among irregular, disengaged voters who do not pay close attention to politics and may not yet be tuned into the race. They may be prone to shift their views as the race gets underway.

This is getting a little delusional at this point. May nots and maybes are typically used by the losing side. Biden is going to lose.

I mean, it's not the losing side that's saying it - it's literally the NYT writers who wrote up the poll

But if you honestly believe Trump will have the best performance among young and nonwhite voters in decades, be my guest. IMO that's much more delusional since the only proof we have of that is some polling crosstabs (all of the oversamples we have seen do not point to this either)

[wbrocks67]

Maybe I'm just overly optimistic but it's weird to me that people are dooming so bad when WI/PA/MI are - once again - literal tossups here and that is Biden's easiest path to victory?

Because disengaged voters will vote against the incumbent.

If they're that disengaged, they're unlikely to vote in the first place

[wbrocks67]

Maybe I'm just overly optimistic but it's weird to me that people are dooming so bad when WI/PA/MI are - once again - literal tossups here and that is Biden's easiest path to victory?

I'm still very optimistic about the rust belt, but as a native Georgian, I'm very disheartened by the sunbelt polls.

Georgia has been trending blue for years, so I don't get why Trump is leading by even more than he won the state by in 2016 -- or even Mitt Romney's 2012 margin if you buy this poll. I also have no idea where Trump would make up that ground (and I know Georgia's political geography very well) so it's also confounding.

I mean, it's basically all compounded within the nonwhite sample. From what I've seen, most GA polls have Biden at or close to the 30% of white voters he needs to win the state. We've gotten a lot of recent GA polls having Trump only up 1-3, so call me crazy for saying that this is a clear outlier, and any poll that has him up nearly 10 in a swing state is.

Donald Trump's own internal had him up only 4 in Arizona, but we're going to believe he's up 6-9? At some people we need to stop being so overreactive here, but also the big doomers love to swarm these threads and get on their high horse (but are conspicuously absent in threads with good polls for Biden)

[wbrocks67]

Also - the Dem candidates are only slightly outperforming Biden in reality on average:

Black voters - Biden gets 70%, senate candidates get 71%
Hispanic voters - Biden gets 47%, senate candidates get 48%
White voters - Biden gets 40%, senate candidates get 44%

So at least with nonwhite voters, it's less of the Dem senate candidate outperforming Biden, the GOP candidates are mostly just underperforming Trump (b/c also they're less name rec too)

Which once again points me to believing this is less a Biden problem and more just a polling thing in general.

[wbrocks67]

It's looking like the situation the Tories & Liberal Party in the UK & Canada are facing is starting to look like Biden's fate. We know there is no going back for the Tories right now pretty much the same for Trudeau. I think we need to start thinking there is no coming back for Biden with the electorate.

Once again - I'm gonna need people to really start taking some breaths here. This is not the end all be all of polling, we have literally gotten close polls in AZ and GA just in the last few weeks, let alone Biden leads in WI, MI and PA. You'd think we were getting Trump +20 polls right now and it was the week before the election.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1790011165868769419

Two things can be true at once:

1. Biden is in a better polling position that he was a few months ago.
2. Trump still has a narrow edge.

Being on the wrong end of a toss-up race is still preferable to being a clear underdog like polling showed at the beginning of the year.

The polls are not pointing to a tossup race. Biden is still a clear underdog.

They are though? The polling averages are a tossup in MI, PA, and WI.

[wbrocks67]

Looks like TRUMP has a significant lead in Michigan.

Biden's +1/+3 in the LV

[wbrocks67]

It should surprise absolutely no one that Nate confirms:

Among 18-29 year olds (total) in these polls:

-Biden is up 56-33 among 2022 midterm voters
-Trump is up 15 with everyone else

https://x.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1790416126255546811