Georgia Supreme Court Election

[wbrocks67]

Is there no early voting for this?

[wbrocks67]

Is there no early voting for this?

I think early voting opened up a couple weeks ago and ended last weekend

This race seems to be gaining traction among the resist lib crowd, so I'm expecting a competitive race

Oh, I'm shocked no one has done any updates. I saw GeorgiaVotes is back - is this data for the SC race? (are there other things on the ballot on 5/21 or just this race?)

https://georgiavotes.com/

[wbrocks67]

Not a great comparison, but the final day of early voting cumulative for Georgia in 2022 was 57-29 white/black, and it's 62-29 right now. Not horrible for Ds but that white share being 5% higher isn't great either.

[wbrocks67]

The election is really flying under the radar here in Forsyth County because none of the local races are interesting.  I expect this is going to be very low turnout.

Low turnout probably helps Barrow if it become a referendum on abortion rights

Yeah I would agree with this. The fact that it's not being nationalized is likely to work in Barrow's favor theoretically

[wbrocks67]

Final EV was 61 white, 30 black

https://georgiavotes.com/

Honestly not bad at all given this is a sleepier affair. If Barrow can get some of that white vote, I think this could be a decently close race.

[wbrocks67]

Gender gap is also 13 points. Is that typical?

Yeah, looks like its been about Female +11-13-ish since 2020 for the EV. Though this seems to be the most female of the bunch by a hair.

Black turnout looks good among the EV compared to previous. It's just this one is a bit more white than previous.

2020
57% white, 28% black
55% female, 43% male

2022
57% white, 29% black
55% female, 44% male

2022 runoff
55% white, 32% black
56% female, 44% male

2024
61% white, 30% black
56% female, 43% male

[wbrocks67]

I didn't realize though that the ballot apparently says "incumbent" next to the Rs name, so I assume that will likely help him

[wbrocks67]

I didn't realize though that the ballot apparently says "incumbent" next to the Rs name, so I assume that will likely help him

That's why its very, very hard for 'nonpartisan' court justices anywhere to lose. Unless there is a party label, or the court gets uber-politicized like Wisconsin, these races are usually quiet retentions. This sometimes leads to weird or even decades-old political coalitions showing up.

That we are even discussing such a race is unique.

Cant wait for the hot takes on how Biden is losing GA by 10 if Barrow loses decently

[wbrocks67]

I didn't realize though that the ballot apparently says "incumbent" next to the Rs name, so I assume that will likely help him

That's why its very, very hard for 'nonpartisan' court justices anywhere to lose. Unless there is a party label, or the court gets uber-politicized like Wisconsin, these races are usually quiet retentions. This sometimes leads to weird or even decades-old political coalitions showing up.

That we are even discussing such a race is unique.

Cant wait for the hot takes on how Biden is losing GA by 10 if Barrow loses decently

And if not, Biden is also doomed because this election is very different from a presidential race.

Honestly, even if Barrow performed a miracle and somehow won, we all know that's how it would play. The "this means nothing for November" gang would be out in full force

[wbrocks67]

According to Election Twitter, the early vote looks really bad for Barrow as it skews pretty white and older.

But doesn't it seem like it's middle aged and older women (from the Second Wave Feminism era when Roe became law) that are the angriest about Dobbs, since they can see the full picture of fighting for that right and then watch it being taken away?

Idk, maybe I'm overthinking this and the race is just too under the radar for Barrow to even have a chance

Yeah it's hard to tell b/c while the electorate is certainly older, it's more female (slightly) than any EV period since 2020. So at the very least, you likely have older females voting which would be better for Barrow than older males.

But yeah, the 65+ share is definitely a lot higher than any EV period as well. Though it's still 30% black, which isn't bad. Also depends on election day voting, if younger/non white voters decide to come out today.

[wbrocks67]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/05/21/us/elections/results-georgia-primary.html

NYT isn't even bothering to do a map for it. -_______-

[wbrocks67]

Do we know anything about spending?

[wbrocks67]

Hm, not great. Rs outspent $1.7M to $1.4M

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1793005791244370000

[wbrocks67]

Just voted for the first time.

#240 in my precinct of 2100 people in Cobb County.

Does that include EV or just today? Honestly that doesn't sound bad at all given its a sleepy race.

[wbrocks67]

DDHQ link

https://decisiondeskhq.com/results/2024/Primaries/races/georgia-state-supreme-court-nonpartisan-general-election-pinson-s-seat

[wbrocks67]

Does anyone have a list of county benchmarks for this race? Like, if this race is at all competitive, what should we be looking for?

Maybe the 2022 AG race? Rs won that by 5

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-georgia-attorney-general.html

[wbrocks67]

and we have a map!

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/05/21/us/elections/results-georgia-supreme-court.html

[wbrocks67]

Hm, Barrow seems to be holding his own (so far) in some of the rurals. Definitly doesn't look like a total blowout

[wbrocks67]

Looking back on previous years, it's just insane that GA had a VBM operation for like, what, 2 years and then they got rid of it?

[wbrocks67]

Hm, Barrow seems to be holding his own (so far) in some of the rurals. Definitly doesn't look like a total blowout

He's holding up really well in Trump counties but doing poorly in Biden ones its bizarre.

The only Biden one I see he's doing meh in that has somewhat substantial vote is Liberty and Douglas. Richmond looks fine so far

[wbrocks67]

Yeah I'm looking at the AG 2022 map and I'm thinking maybe Pinson by 5? Unclear right now. Barrow holding his own in Trump rurals and in even some areas like Baldwin. Richmond looks good.

A few Dem counties look meh though, but they may cancel out the better performance in the rurals. Really want to see Atlanta metro

[wbrocks67]

Candler is 60% in. Pinson +10. Carr +48 in AG 2022. Small rural area

[wbrocks67]

All of the red counties that are 50%+ in so far, Barrow is doing much better than Jordan 2022

[wbrocks67]

It would be ironic if low turnout in the Atlanta metro or Biden areas was the cause of defeat of Barrow lol

[wbrocks67]

Gwinnett, wtf