ABC/Ipsos: Biden +1 (RV), +4 (LV)

[wbrocks67]

RV:
Biden (D) 46%
Trump (R) 45%

Biden (D) 42%
Trump (R) 42%
RFK Jr. 12%

LV:
Biden (D) 49%
Trump (R) 45%

Biden fav 40/51 (-11)
Trump fav 33/58 (-25)

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/6-months-out-tight-presidential-race-trump-biden-poll/story?id=109909175

[wbrocks67]

Given that ABC/Wapo have not done a poll since September, this is interesting timing. I wonder if ABC is oscillating between Ipsos and Wapo to cut costs, b/c Gary Langer is the one who handled this poll, and he usually handles the Wapo polls too.

[wbrocks67]

ABC/Ipsos has Biden approval at 35% lol

He ain’t winning the election with an approval in the mid 30s lol

35% is among adults, not RV.

I could say the same thing about Trump's favorability. He ain't winning with a net fav of nearly -30.

[wbrocks67]

ABC/Ipsos has Biden approval at 35% lol

He ain’t winning the election with an approval in the mid 30s lol

35% is among adults, not RV.

I could say the same thing about Trump's favorability. He ain't winning with a net fav of nearly -30.

55% view Trump’s presidency as a success. Only 39% say the same for Biden. I don’t think the red avatars understand the big hole Joe is in.

Not sure why you keep citing the CNN poll as if its the only poll out there. This poll literally has Trumps retrospective approval at only 44/50.

[wbrocks67]

According to this poll, trump is leading young voters and Hispanics and is garnering 18% of the black vote.

Yet the margin is the same as 2020?

Those are all among adults. Not sure why they did the table and only gave adults results when they could've done RV.

[wbrocks67]

The other issue with Trump here is something that has happened in other polls as well - he's stuck at the same # no matter if its adults, RV, LV. The way he's at 45-46 here no matter what the group is is telling.

[wbrocks67]

The LV sample is 50% college educated

Isn’t that pretty high?

The number of Americans with college degrees/certifications is up to 54 percent.

Nope.

In the Census Bureau's most recent 2022 findings, the percentage of people with a bachelor's degree or higher remained stable from the previous year at around 37.7%.

And again, Biden isn’t winning with a JA of 35%.

College educated voters vote in a way higher proportion than non college voters do. They were 41% of the electorate in 2020 despite being like 35% of the adult population. If 2024 is a lower turnout election and you expect it to drop more with non-college than college, it wouldn't be outlandish for them to be like 45% of the electorate off of 37% of the adult population.

I don't think it's that outlandish, given that if it's a lower turnout election for *some groups* (i.e. non-college), then it's very possible college ed (who are more reliable voters, even in lower turnout elections) could be 45%. Not saying it's likely, but it's not impossible.

[wbrocks67]

I think this is going to be the closest-feeling election since 2004 and we just need to adjust to having a race that doesn't feel like one side is a strong favorite like people did in 2020 or (incorrectly) in 2016. Some Democrats are so unused to not leading all the time that they interpret a close race as getting killed six months out.

Yeah I'd rather the polls be close so we know going in it'll be close, unlike 2020 when it was more of a surprise that it was close.