MD Sen Democratic primary: Who wins? (user search)
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  MD Sen Democratic primary: Who wins? (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Poll
Question: Select one
#1
Angela Alsobrooks
 
#2
David Trone
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 87

Author Topic: MD Sen Democratic primary: Who wins?  (Read 5467 times)
wbrocks67
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« on: May 13, 2024, 06:08:11 PM »

I think the Alsobrooks late surge is real-

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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: May 14, 2024, 07:42:36 PM »

If Trone doesn't get a landslide result in Montgomery County, then this is probably callable. Those numbers in the majority-White counties do not suggest a close race.

Trone only being up 8 with the early vote there doesn't seem to bode well for him.

Didn't expect Alsobrooks to be in the statewide lead either with the early vote.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2 on: May 14, 2024, 07:43:29 PM »

It's not looking good for Alsobrooks... she's only leading in 2 counties, PG and Prince Charles, and Baltimore City. And PG has a higher % in than the rest of the state. But it's going to be close. She'd have to rely on ED vote breaking for her.

I don't think anyone expected her to be up in the early vote. This is the opposite of it not looking good for her...
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #3 on: May 15, 2024, 07:21:41 PM »
« Edited: May 15, 2024, 07:59:26 PM by wbrocks67 »

I know this is kind of ridiculous but Alsobrooks winning (and not that far off from my prediction *ahem*) but I feel more confident that Biden will in November and outperform polls in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan atleast.

Moore’s 2022 upset, Biden’s massive over performance in South Carolina in 2020, and now Alsobrooks shows a pattern that pollsters haven’t figured out how to accurately poll in largely black communities.

I don't think this is the correct read.  If it means anything for the presidential race (it probably doesn't), it would be that Trone's money advantage and absolute dominance on the airwaves didn't matter.  

Nah, I think the correct read is that money can't solve all your problems. It can help, but if you're unlikable like Trone and don't have the institutional support/endorsements that Alsobrooks had, then yeah. But Biden doesn't have those issues.

Honestly the only thing Trone really had going for him was money and he still got 40%+ of the vote, so money still does matter. Basically every major Dem in the state was against him lol

If you look at this way, Alsobrooks basically had to assemble the Avengers of Maryland to be able to win this by the end. She had to pull out every stop she could - or else there was a chance she could lose simply bc Trone had $$
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