NY-03 Special Election Megathread

[wbrocks67]

Apparently Pilip has been registered as a Dem since 2012? lol

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/new-york-playbook/2023/12/06/a-problem-with-a-possible-santos-successor-00130244

[wbrocks67]

Ms. Pilip, however, lacks many of the credentials typically prized in a competitive congressional race. She has almost no experience raising money, lacks relationships with key party figures outside her affluent New York City suburb and has never faced the kind of scrutiny that comes with being a candidate for high office.

In fact, beyond fierce advocacy for Israel and support for the police, she has taken no known public positions on major issues that have shaped recent House contests. That includes abortion rights, gun laws and the criminal charges against former President Donald J. Trump.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/14/nyregion/pilip-santos-special-election.html?smid=tw-nytmetro&smtyp=cur

But isn’t that the GOP dream candidate? She is a woman of color with seemingly no positions beyond pro-Israel and cops, which is basically Long Island political bread and butter. I fail to see how this is a bad thing when she’ll be up against perennial candidate, swamp politician Suozzi. The Ds’ only real Hope here, IMO, is special election turnout dynamics.

No, I'd argue that it's the reason why she's not the GOP dream candidate. We all saw firsthand last cycle especially how these people that come out of the woodwork with little experience tend to be pretty bad candidates, especially thrown into high profile races. The fact that she's so unknown means that gives Dems a real easy start to define her early. Which I only say at this point because Dems have made it clear they'll spend a sh*t ton of money, and Rs don't seem to be signaling that yet.

[wbrocks67]

Ms. Pilip, however, lacks many of the credentials typically prized in a competitive congressional race. She has almost no experience raising money, lacks relationships with key party figures outside her affluent New York City suburb and has never faced the kind of scrutiny that comes with being a candidate for high office.

In fact, beyond fierce advocacy for Israel and support for the police, she has taken no known public positions on major issues that have shaped recent House contests. That includes abortion rights, gun laws and the criminal charges against former President Donald J. Trump.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/14/nyregion/pilip-santos-special-election.html?smid=tw-nytmetro&smtyp=cur

But isn’t that the GOP dream candidate? She is a woman of color with seemingly no positions beyond pro-Israel and cops, which is basically Long Island political bread and butter. I fail to see how this is a bad thing when she’ll be up against perennial candidate, swamp politician Suozzi. The Ds’ only real Hope here, IMO, is special election turnout dynamics.

No, I'd argue that it's the reason why she's not the GOP dream candidate. We all saw firsthand last cycle especially how these people that come out of the woodwork with little experience tend to be pretty bad candidates, especially thrown into high profile races. The fact that she's so unknown means that gives Dems a real easy start to define her early. Which I only say at this point because Dems have made it clear they'll spend a sh*t ton of money, and Rs don't seem to be signaling that yet.

You and others are somewhat overstating how inexperienced she is. She defeated a 6-year Dem incumbent in a high profile Nassau County legislator race by almost double digits in 2021 and then doubled her margin in 2023, winning by 20 points. She has a large base of support in Great Neck, and she again will hold an advantage over Suozzi on several things: the economy/Biden, Israel, and being a fresh face. Her only real obstacle in my mind is creating distance from Santos and turnout dynamics during special elections. She’ll probably say she was duped by him, just like his constituents.

This is not the equivalent of, like, Blake Masters thinking he had charisma or political chops and just floating into a race because his boss would bankroll him.

On the flip side, people here are overstating Suozzi’s ability to run a competent race. He has a really frankly dismal electoral record and pathetic political instincts. His nomination reinforces a lot of the things people are running away from, at the moment, especially in metro NY. He is very old news - it’s not like there will be palpable enthusiasm for his 75th candidacy for some office, somewhere.

I am not stating she will win decisively, but in my mind it’s definitely a coin toss.

Seems like another grifter, but who really knows. I read that when she was asked about abortion a GOP operative stepped in and stopped her from answering. Also
https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1735400661465157733

LOL, Suozzi couldn't have asked for a better Christmas gift.

There’s a reason why Suozzi allegedly was calling around in recent weeks to suss out Pilip. He definitely was most concerned about her, of all possible GOP nominees.

I highly doubt there's some massive trove of Obama-Obama-Hillary-Biden-Trump voters in New York who are going to also swing Republican downballot which is kind of what these predictions are based on. Yes there obviously was many Obama-Obama-Hillary-Biden-Zeldin voters, but swinging against an unpopular governor is not surprising or abnormal. It'd be like predicting a massive swing to Biden and downballot Democrats in Kentucky 2020 based on Beshear defeating Bevin.

I grew up on Long Island. Tell me you know nothing about Long Island.

I'm not sure why you're so hell bent on giving this person the benefit of the doubt? It feels like you're just particularly anti-Suozzi so trying to make it like he's an underdog here or something. This woman is a literal unknown with no money, and she's attached to Santos whether she likes it or not. You keep arguing Suozzi has all these liabilities and that this woman has none - it feels like you're not really giving an unbiased view of the situation.

[wbrocks67]

Ds are already out with an ad, and already locking in $6M+ of spending. GOP seems to be sleeping behind the wheel here.

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1742178139160154239

[wbrocks67]

We have about a month left and the GOP has only placed $242K, while the GOP nominee doesn't seem to be out doing much of anything. This race is going to be quite interesting...

[wbrocks67]

We have about a month left and the GOP has only placed $242K, while the GOP nominee doesn't seem to be out doing much of anything. This race is going to be quite interesting...

You repeatedly claimed that Jack Ciattarelli was somehow not campaigning. You’re literally the last person I’d take seriously when someone says that a Republican candidate is not campaigning.

[wbrocks67]

Looks like Pilip is refusing to debate. It feels like she's basically invisible at this point.

https://twitter.com/Tom_Suozzi/status/1743003970568700144?s=20

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1744502882500497846

[wbrocks67]

Been seeing a ton of pro-Suozzi/anti-Pilip ads lately, as expected.

Pilip is literally the most unknown person, so I imagine she's going to get defined pretty quickly by Dems.

[wbrocks67]

I mean at this point, unless something drastically changes, it doesn't appear like the GOP is even actively trying that much.

[wbrocks67]

We have risen from 5:1 to 6:1 spending advantage

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1745106795327082915

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/alisha_hg/status/1745494068078006712

[wbrocks67]

DCCC drops another $1M

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1745590821968306448?s=20

[wbrocks67]

At this point I think we're getting to the possibility that this may be a blowout.

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot0001/status/1745615556928324015?s=20

https://twitter.com/Tom_Suozzi/status/1745601055990198371?s=20

[wbrocks67]

At this point I think we're getting to the possibility that this may be a blowout.

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot0001/status/1745615556928324015?s=20
https://twitter.com/Tom_Suozzi/status/1745601055990198371?s=20

It was going to be a blow out the moment Republicans decided to have a special election.

Now it's just an embarrasement that Santos looks good by comparison.

Pilip would have had an excellent chance had Republicans actually tried to defend it rather than just throw in the towel immediately.

I wonder if the GOP is conceding the seat early in order to get a sink for D'Esposito in the redraw.

Not so sure of that. She lacks any name recongition, any fundraising skills, and now has two medium-sized scandals going on under her belt too. She's just not a good candidate.

[wbrocks67]

I mean is Pilip genuinely not even trying at this point?

She literally bailed on ANOTHER candidate forum tonight lol

https://www.theindianpanorama.news/ny-nj-ct/at-candidate-forum-suozzi-goes-solo-while-pilip-continues-to-hide/

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, I was dubious about Suozzi coasting but it looks like the GOP did just that. (They could have beat him too, which is what makes this…interesting.)

I mean, I think this situation kind of shows they probably couldn't. I imagine the internals are just dreadful at this point so that's why they're barely doing anything. I think Santos was always going to cost the GOP this seat most likely.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, I was dubious about Suozzi coasting but it looks like the GOP did just that. (They could have beat him too, which is what makes this…interesting.)

I mean, I think this situation kind of shows they probably couldn't. I imagine the internals are just dreadful at this point so that's why they're barely doing anything. I think Santos was always going to cost the GOP this seat most likely.

The race was over the moment Suozzi entered in October. The push to expel Santos really began afterwards.

Yeah, Suozzi was the perfect candidate Dems could have here. Someone who is known, who is not a squad member, someone most of the voters trust to return to "normal" in the district, etc.

[wbrocks67]

Pilip actually surfaces but she's in ... Washington DC. Does this woman do anything in the actual district?

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1746625067696460241?s=46&t=nqSV11RbCF5uPVG...

[wbrocks67]

Pilip could have been a perfect candidate and she would still lose because this is a special election in a district that voted for Biden by EIGHT POINTS. Come on ya'll! Special elections in districts like that are basically Safe D.

A special in an area that has consistently been disastrous for Democrats since Biden took office?

To be fair, Democrats really haven't competed the way they should have in this region in years now.

[wbrocks67]

Dems now outspending GOP $8.1m to $1.2m

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1747639382494843383

[wbrocks67]

It's almost as if Pilip is trying to lose at this point.

[wbrocks67]

Biden Approval Rating in the District:

Approve 33
Disapprove 59

Hochul

Approve 25
Disapprove 66

Biden won this by 10.

With these numbers Republicans are going to improve in N.Y.C. even more than 2022 in November.

The numbers in the poll basically disprove that Biden's approval has really any affect though. If Suozzi wins by 10 while Biden's approval is only 33%, that pretty much shows us that approval is not a great indicator.

[wbrocks67]

I-

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1748095125987672228?s=20

[wbrocks67]

Biden Approval Rating in the District:

Approve 33
Disapprove 59

Hochul

Approve 25
Disapprove 66

Biden won this by 10.

With these numbers Republicans are going to improve in N.Y.C. even more than 2022 in November.

Is Donald Trump more popular though? I would sincerely doubt that. NY as a whole might swing R to a degree in November, though I really fail to see such a major swing in a presidential election. Also not sure if Suozzi is heavily favored in November as well, whether there are tons of Suozzi (and Gillibrand)/Trump voters.

Biden vs Trump polling in New York supports that Trump would be leading in NY-3, and by around the margin that Santos won it.

We’ve basically had no polling out of NY. The D+9ish Siena poll was trash and had 1/3rd undecided iirc. Trump is not getting close to Zeldin numbers in NY-03 in November.

And this of course: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=577130.0

So you have all the polls from New York saying the same things, Trump matches the midterm GOP numbers in New York, such unanimity can't be ignored.

The Change report is weird because literally inside the presentation, it says the NY competitive CD generic matchup is actually D+4, 44-40 on page 15.