Official 2023 General Election Results Thread

[wbrocks67]

Figured incase anyone missed it in the other thread - CNN apparently will have exit polls, which I assume means Edison (NBC/ABC/CBS etc) will too. Unsure of which races though, based on their press release

https://cnnpressroom.blogs.cnn.com/2023/11/06/cnn-to-broadcast-americas-choice-2023-election-night-special-coverage/

[wbrocks67]

I'm shocked this thread isn't bustling already.

In 2022, this thread was already 20 pages long with dooming about VA turnout lol.

[wbrocks67]

Have today and tomorrow off, gonna go vote soon, have food lined up for this evening, and ready to enjoy another election night with y'all. 

Lezzgo!

Who are you voting for Supreme Court? :eyes:

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1721870639378690073

[wbrocks67]

Final NJ poll out today has Ds +16 in assembly and state senate

https://eagletonpoll.rutgers.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Rutgers-Eagleton-Poll-NJ-Legislative-2023-Elections-11.7.23-FINAL-PUBLIC-PDF.pdf

[wbrocks67]

CNN Results Pages
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2023

Dunno how many Exit Polls we get? Right now CNN has only listed the Ohio Ballot Initiatives getting Exit Polling if you click on their Exit Polls Tap.

This would be so disappointing, the ballot measures seem like the least likely to get exit polls you'd think, while KY and MS would be so much more interesting. I really hope it's not just OH...

[wbrocks67]

Philly turnout looking good so far. The question will be how *much* better than 2021 do we go.

https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1721921306373783951

[wbrocks67]

I mean, was there a concerted effort in Ohio to get black voters out though?

To me, a place like MS is the biggest harbinger for that today because it seems like that's the only place where there was time and energy spent *specifically* to get that demographic out - maybe VA in some places too?

[wbrocks67]

It is concerning to see Democrats skipping minority outreach in favor of resist liberal whites. I get that it's tough to argue with their post-Dobbs track record, and tonight will shed more light on that, but there's no reason to give up on minority outreach.

Where is the evidence of that happening? If anything in Ohio, I just think it's likely that those areas just have more high propensity voters. I don't think there was an effort to outreach one group over the other.

[wbrocks67]

Youngkin has been on Fox 24/7 this week, and especially the last 24 hours.

Unsure of whether this means he seems something we don't, and is trying to make sure it happens, or he's getting more and more desperate.

https://twitter.com/DNCWarRoom/status/1721933243933495712

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/loudounvote/status/1721914924484510058?s=46

Do we know what the turnout was in 2021 and 2022?

[wbrocks67]

At this time in 2022, there was already large scale dooming about VA turnout. Intriguing that we do not see that yet lol

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/bluevirginia/status/1721931475078070355

[wbrocks67]

So the guy who estimates Philly turnout is seeing nearly 195,000 as of right now (~119,000 so far in person and 75,000 VBM received as of this morning), which would put it:

2015 turnout: 239,000
2019 turnout: 292,000
2021 turnout: 215,000
2023 turnout (so far): 194,000

If this is anywhere close to true.... Philly turnout is actually looking amazing. It's almost hard to believe, because given there's likely another 10-15k mail to be counted at least, and in-person for another 7.5 hours, that would predict closer to 2019 turnout than 2021. 2019 was the last time the mayoral race was up, so that could be providing a huge boon to Ds this year, which would give them a ridiculously great extra padding for McCaffery.

https://sixtysixwards.com/turnout-tracker/

[wbrocks67]

I feel like VA has been a red mirage since at least 2016, so nothing really new there.

PA will likely be a blue mirage. Most counties have gotten very good with counting ballots faster, Allegheny and Philly were able to dump most of their VBM pretty early on last year, and then most other counties that I can remember generally posted VBM results before in-person. Fetterman jumped out to like an 84-15 lead in the beginning and then it only started receding once the election day returns slowly came in. I expect that to happen again this year.

[wbrocks67]

So, only Ohio Ballot Measures will apparently have Exit Polling.

Conclusion = Edison Research are the biggest FRAUDS ever!

Could just be that no media outlets cared to have and pay for any other exit polling conducted.

I mean, I get this stuff costs money, but Ohio of all places, where the measures seem like the most likely outcome of the entire night seems like a weird place to spend money. At least chip in for KY, since the results of that exit poll would be fascinating given there is considerable likely crossover support.

[wbrocks67]

There was a glitch apparently on the Philly turnout tracker, so the #s have been revised. 100K (estimated) is person it where it sits now, which seems a lot more realistic.

2015 turnout: 239,000
2019 turnout: 292,000
2021 turnout: 215,000
2023 turnout (so far): 175,000

Still looks like we should easily blow past 2015 and 2021 at this rate.

[wbrocks67]

It appears turnout is pretty close to 2021

https://twitter.com/bluevirginia/status/1721963542650216516

[wbrocks67]

The NYT results page is live

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/11/07/us/elections/results-kentucky.html

[wbrocks67]

Looking like not awesome turnout in Cameron country. Looking like it could be less than 2019.

https://twitter.com/michaelpruser/status/1721972052951732618?s=46

This guy also loves to downplay any good news for Dems, so when he's being honest about it being bad for the GOP, you know it's bad bad.

[wbrocks67]

3pm EST Philly estimated vote (5 hours left)

2015 turnout: 239,000
2019 turnout: 292,000
2021 turnout: 215,000
2023 turnout (so far): 200,000

This also does not include any VBM dropped off today. I think we're definitely going to end up closer to 2019 by the end.

https://sixtysixwards.com/turnout-tracker/

[wbrocks67]

What I'm about to say probably won't have any influence on the actual result, but I saw several Carluccio yard signs in my area (I live in a safe D area) but no McCaffrey yard signs.

Cameron is going to be crushed TONIGHT, absolutely annihilated by Beshear. Andy might be even by 10+ Points and the Race might already been called by the time MS Polls close.

https://twitter.com/MichaelPruser/status/1721972052951732618
Cameron is lagging behind Turnout wise even in the Rual Counties Bevin won big in 2019. Maybe he was too much Establishment? He's also a McConnell Lackey.

This doesn't look good for Cameron. This makes me feel a bit more confident on Beshear's re-election, though it still might turn around. Then again, there could also be low turnout in Dem-heavy areas as well. We'll just have to see.

https://twitter.com/bruneelections/status/1721980273389174806?s=46

Good news for the pro-abortion and pro-marijuana crew.

Funny enough, in Montco back home, the area where I'm from is still a bit swingy but has definitely been trending D, I've seen 1 McCaffery sign. That's it - while I've seen a ton of Carluccio. Now, most of Carluccio's are the county GOP ones on public property, but I've still probably seen like 4-5 on peoples lawns compared to only 1 for McCaffery. However, I feel like this particular election is just not one that inspires a lot of sign usage (apparently the Montco Dems feel the same way since their signs on public property have been nearly nonexistent for Mccaffery, etc.), so we'll see what happens, but this may be the most I've seen of a 'ton of signs may actually been literally nothing' election. Usually it's not like that, but this one I think may be.

[wbrocks67]

Unless Louisville numbers are equally bad to the rural numbers, it looks like Beshear will outperform expectations. It also looks like Virginia Republicans are doing better than expectations?

Mississippi is unclear right now.

I wouldn't say that - looks like theres pretty high turnout on both sides. That HD-97 district with black turnout is the only thing I've seen that looks slightly troublesome, but even then, turnout was still approaching 50% with hours to go, so it's not catastrophic.

The college turnout is pretty surprising given the narrative(TM) that has taken hold about young voters recently.

[wbrocks67]

Is there any explicable reason why Dems seemed to have triaged the Roanoke state senate seat? It was only Trump +0.1% and this is the exact kind of area where Democrats would overperform the presidential top line.

They are doing about 9-10 points worse than Biden in polling. Any Trump seat is Likely R in this environment.

Except they're overperforming Biden in actual elections though. So yeah, triaging a Trump +0.1 district makes no sense.

[wbrocks67]

Can someone provide context for these? We're getting a ton of ____ is seeing high turnout! with no context of who it would be better for lol

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1721983746692227116