Ralston: "almost complete final turnout figures in NV, and they are eye-opening."

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, although Washoe seems to be trending left, the fact that it almost beat the margin for CCM in Clark seems to indicate meh turnout for Dems in Clark more than anything.

I think one thing Ralston and others will need to take into account in the future for NV too is the Indy vote, because like we saw this year, a lot of younger voters get registered for Indies, so even in a GOP-leaning year like this one, Indies seem likely to still lean left at least given if things continue this way (if new voters continue to be automatically registered as Independent)

[wbrocks67]

I feel like people don't give enough credit to Masto here. She ran a basically perfect campaign.

[wbrocks67]

Perhaps NV without this huge GOP turnout edge trends Dem in 2024, like Minnesota in 2020 after 2016.

Yeah quite frankly it's kind of shocking that given the recent "NV trending red" the last few cycles, that Masto still won this by 1% despite GOP turnout being way better. Like someone said above, with that comparable base turnout in 2024, Dems should be breathing a sigh of relief a bit more now about NV imo.

[wbrocks67]

Just curious why folks think the Reid turnout machine was so effective this cycle given the extremely poor D turnout? If the Reid machine were effective, I don't think there would have been a more than double digit turnout gap between Ds and Rs in Clark county.

It feels to me like NV is a clear example of Rs getting the base turnout they needed to at least comfortably win statewide, but failing to appeal to Independents (who decisively broke D in almost all of the battleground races).

I mean, it was still a Biden midterm. I think the fact that Ds did what they did during a Biden midterm kind of proves it, no?

[wbrocks67]

This makes me question why so many see Rosen as the most vulnerable D incumbent Sen outside OH/MT/WV for 2024. Like if CCM was able to win despite unfavorable turnout dynamics, turnout dynamics which should equalize at least a bit in a Pres year, why would Rosen be the *most* vulnerable. It'd def be premature to say she has this in the bag and that Dems shouldn't invest here both at the Sen and Pres levels, but I think she should be a favorite.

Because there's no guarantee that Indy's will be as democratic in 2024? The issues that made them break heavily towards democrats (abortion, trump, bad candidates) might not be as salient in 2024, just like the issue that helped republicans in 2020 (defund the police) and 2021 (covid lockdowns) don't matter now. So higher base turnout could be countered by lower indy support.

Like someone else said, Nevada is the republican version of what Florida was to democrats in the last decade, a fustratingly tilt D (resp. R) state.

Again though, in terms of NV, we need to remember that a decent chunk of Independents are now young voters because they automatically get registered as Indies when they register to vote.

[wbrocks67]

Given turnout midterm dynamics, Masto only doing like 2-3% worse than Biden even in more minority-heavy areas actually isn't too bad.